โ† MLB

MLB Matchup Intelligence

SEA vs
HOU

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros

May 11, 2026 ยท 8:10 PM ET ยท Daikin Park
SEA 76-86  ยท  HOU 81-81

๐Ÿ Final: SEA 3, HOU 1 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† Seattle Mariners
Confidence 72%
Projected Score SEA 4 ยท HOU 1
Blowout Probability 14%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

HOU Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SEA Key injuries HOU (Daulton Varsho, Cristian Javier, Ethan Pecko) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
HOU SEA SP elevated fatigue โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SEA Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
HOU SEA SP home dependent โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

SEA โ€” Away RHP
George Kirby
George Kirby
ERA4.33
WHIP1.40
FIP3.85
K/97.6
K/BB5.2
Road ERA: 5.55
vs
HOU โ€” Home RHP
Peter Lambert
Peter Lambert
ERA3.82
WHIP1.25
FIP3.68
K/98.9
K/BB5.5
Home ERA: 4.19

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

SEA โ€” Away
  1. 1 Brendan Donovan 3B
  2. 2 Julio Rodriguez CF
  3. 3 Josh Naylor 1B
  4. 4 Cal Raleigh C
  5. 5 Randy Arozarena LF
  6. 6 Luke Raley RF
  7. 7 J.P. Crawford SS
  8. 8 Dominic Canzone DH
  9. 9 Cole Young 2B
HOU โ€” Home
  1. 1 Jose Altuve 2B
  2. 2 Yordan Alvarez DH
  3. 3 Isaac Paredes 3B
  4. 4 Christian Walker 1B
  5. 5 Zachary Cole LF
  6. 6 Cam Smith RF
  7. 7 Brice Matthews CF
  8. 8 Braden Shewmake SS
  9. 9 Christian Vazquez C

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

SEA Away HOU Home
Team OPS 0.734 0.705
Bullpen FIP 4.56 4.20
Run Diff / 10G -0.3 -0.2
Days Rest 0 0
Streak 2 -2

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
SEA -1.5 (-2000)
HOU +1.5 (+800)
Total (O/U)
Over 4.5 (+720)
Under 4.5 (-1640)
Moneyline
SEA -10000
HOU +1380

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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