MLB Final Intelligence
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres โ Recap
September 27, 2026 ยท Petco Park ยท View Preview
Game Recap
San Diego secured an unexpected victory over Arizona, riding a strong start and a decisive late-game surge. The Padres built an early lead, withstood a spirited comeback attempt from the Diamondbacks that tied the game in the seventh inning, and then decisively pulled away with a five-run outburst across the final two frames.
San Diego established control early, scoring a run in the third inning on a Machado single. Sheets extended the lead in the fourth with a solo home run, followed by France's RBI single in the fifth, putting the Padres up 3-0. Arizona got on the board in the sixth with Marte's RBI single, but Fermin's double in the bottom half of the inning immediately pushed the Padres' lead back to three runs, making it 4-1.
The Diamondbacks mounted their biggest threat in the seventh inning, scoring three runs to tie the game. Carroll and Tawa each delivered RBI singles before Nootbaar's single brought home Tawa, completing the comeback and knotting the score at four. However, the Padres quickly responded, reclaiming the lead in the bottom of the frame when Cronenworth drew a walk with the bases loaded, bringing home France. Fermin followed with a crucial two-run single, scoring Campusano and Hays, extending San Diego's lead to 7-4 and extinguishing Arizona's rally. Randy Vasquez's six-inning, one-earned-run performance had earlier kept the Padres in command.
San Diego's ability to immediately counter Arizona's comeback proved to be the difference, effectively halting the Diamondbacks' momentum before they could fully seize control. Key offensive contributions, including Austin Hays' two hits, two RBI, and two runs scored, helped power the Padres to victory. The outcome defied pregame expectations, which had favored the Diamondbacks, even with SportsFBI's model giving them a 72% chance of winning based on starting pitching quality. The win pushed San Diego's record to 91-71, while Arizona fell to 86-76.
How the Prediction Fared
Pregame, the market favored the Arizona Diamondbacks (-131, 54% implied) over the San Diego Padres. Final: the San Diego Padres won 9โ4, pulling off the upset.
SportsFBI's model favored the Arizona Diamondbacks (72% confidence). Final: the San Diego Padres won 9โ4, missing the call.
Player of the Game
Turning Point
The game turned in the 7th inning, when the Arizona Diamondbacks scored 3 runs.
Pitching
| Pitcher | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Vasquez |
|
6.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3.90 |
| Michael Soroka |
|
4.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3.41 |
| Griffin Canning W |
|
3.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5.68 |
| Brandyn Garcia |
|
1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.93 |
| Ryne Nelson |
|
1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4.95 |
| Kevin Ginkel |
|
0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4.12 |
| Juan Morillo |
|
0.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.24 |
| Justin Martinez L |
|
0.1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2.03 |
Batting
| Batter | Team | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddy Fermin |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Austin Hays |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Ty France |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Dustin Harris |
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Gavin Sheets |
|
2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Corbin Carroll |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ketel Marte |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lars Nootbaar |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tim Tawa |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Manny Machado |
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Geraldo Perdomo |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| James McCann |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Lawlar |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nolan Arenado |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Samad Taylor |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
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