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MLB Final Intelligence

BAL 69-70
5 – 7
FINAL
STL 69-70

Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals β€” Recap

August 27, 2026  Β· Busch Stadium  Β· View Preview

πŸ“°Game Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals secured a hard-fought victory over the Baltimore Orioles, building an early lead with a pair of multi-run home runs and then fending off a late-game rally. Baltimore, favored coming into the contest by the pregame market and SportsFBI's proprietary model, chipped away at a five-run deficit but ultimately fell short as St. Louis added a crucial insurance run in the eighth inning.

The Cardinals wasted no time establishing control, with Jordan launching a 416-foot three-run homer to center in the bottom of the second inning, scoring Burleson and BΓ‘ez. An equally potent shot came in the fourth, when UrΓ­as connected for a 401-foot two-run blast to center, extending St. Louis's advantage to five runs. Baltimore responded in the top of the fifth with a sacrifice fly from Cowser, bringing Encarnacion-Strand home, but St. Louis quickly regained their five-run cushion when Burleson grounded out later that inning, allowing FermΓ­n to score.

Baltimore refused to concede, mounting a significant comeback attempt that centered around the seventh inning. Coby Mayo delivered the Orioles' largest scoring punch, smashing a 446-foot three-run home run to center in the seventh, cutting the deficit to two runs. Another run came across in the top of the eighth on a Henderson double that scored Holliday, making it a tense one-run game. However, St. Louis answered immediately in the bottom of the eighth; Church singled to left, driving in UrΓ­as and restoring a two-run lead that would prove decisive. During the Orioles' rally, Gordon Graceffo was critical for the Cardinals, tossing three scoreless innings of relief with four strikeouts to keep the lead intact.

Ultimately, St. Louis's early power display and timely eighth-inning response proved too much for the Orioles to overcome, allowing the Cardinals to secure the upset win. The Baltimore Orioles now stand at 65-69, while the St. Louis Cardinals improved their record to 67-68.

#MLB #Cardinals #Orioles #CobyMayo #GordonGraceffo

How the Prediction Fared

⚑ Upset

Pregame, the market favored the Baltimore Orioles (-120, 52% implied) over the St. Louis Cardinals. Final: the St. Louis Cardinals won 7–5, pulling off the upset.

⚑ Model Missed

SportsFBI's model favored the Baltimore Orioles (72% confidence). Final: the St. Louis Cardinals won 7–5, missing the call.

Player of the Game

Coby Mayo
At the Plate
4 AB, 1 H, 1 HR, 3 RBI
Gordon Graceffo
On the Mound
3.0 IP, 4 K, 0 ER

Linescore

123456789 RHE
BAL 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 5 70
STL 0 3 0 2 1 0 0 1 β€” 7 90

Turning Point

The game turned in the 7th inning, when the Baltimore Orioles scored 3 runs.

Pitching

Pitcher Team IP H R ER BB K ERA
Trevor Rogers L 5.0 7 6 6 1 7 4.38
Gordon Graceffo 3.0 0 0 0 0 4 2.98
Cam Sanders 2.0 1 0 0 1 4 5.48
Justin Bruihl 1.2 2 1 1 1 2 3.39
Luis Gastelum W 1.1 0 0 0 0 2 4.88
Anthony Nunez 1.0 1 1 1 1 2 4.41
Caleb Ferguson 1.0 2 3 3 1 1 5.23
George Soriano 1.0 2 1 1 0 1 4.12
Riley O'Brien S 1.0 1 0 0 0 1 3.95

Batting

Batter Team AB H HR RBI R BB K
Alec Burleson 4 2 0 1 2 0 0
Christian Encarnacion-Strand 4 2 0 0 2 0 1
Jackson Holliday 4 2 0 0 1 0 1
Jordan Walker 4 2 0 0 0 0 2
Coby Mayo 4 1 1 3 1 0 0
Blaze Jordan 3 1 1 3 1 0 2
Ramon Urias 3 1 1 2 2 1 0
Colton Cowser 3 1 0 1 0 0 1
Gunnar Henderson 4 1 0 1 0 0 0
Nathan Church 3 1 0 1 0 1 0
Jose Fermin 4 1 0 0 1 0 1
Joshua Baez 4 1 0 0 1 0 3

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