MLB Final Intelligence
San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds β Recap
September 1, 2026 Β· Great American Ball Park Β· View Preview
Game Recap
The Cincinnati Reds orchestrated a late-inning comeback to upset the favored San Diego Padres. After falling behind in the first and seeing San Diego retake the lead in the fifth, Cincinnati repeatedly answered, then pushed across two decisive runs in the eighth inning to claim a narrow victory.
San Diego initially took the lead in the first inning when Machado hit a sacrifice fly to bring home Taylor. The Reds quickly answered in the bottom half, evening the score with an RBI single from Bleday. Fernando Tatis Jr. then put the Padres back in front with a solo home run in the fifth, only for Cincinnati to again respond in the bottom of the frame on an RBI single by RodrΓguez, knotting the game at two.
The decisive blow came in the bottom of the eighth inning. With the game tied, Trevino singled to center field, driving in De La Cruz and giving the Reds their first lead of the contest. Brito followed shortly after with a sacrifice fly, extending Cincinnati's advantage to two runs. Although Tatis Jr. launched his second solo home run of the game in the top of the ninth, trimming the deficit, it ultimately wasn't enough to overcome Cincinnati's late-game offensive burst. Nick Lodolo's six-inning, two-run performance for the Reds, stifling the Padres through much of the game, provided the foundation for their late heroics.
The Reds' persistent offense, particularly their ability to answer San Diego's scoring plays and then break through in the late innings, proved to be the difference against a Padres team that struggled to convert its pregame advantages. This resilient effort allowed Cincinnati to improve their record to 66-73, while San Diego dropped to 73-66.
How the Prediction Fared
Pregame, the market favored the San Diego Padres (-126, 53% implied) over the Cincinnati Reds. Final: the Cincinnati Reds won 4β3, pulling off the upset.
SportsFBI's model favored the San Diego Padres (72% confidence). Final: the Cincinnati Reds won 4β3, missing the call.
Player of the Game
Pitching
| Pitcher | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Lodolo |
|
6.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5.08 |
| Randy Vasquez |
|
4.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4.02 |
| Bradgley Rodriguez |
|
1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2.02 |
| Brock Burke W |
|
1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2.58 |
| Emilio Pagan S |
|
1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4.19 |
| Luis Mey |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3.75 |
| Yuki Matsui |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.99 |
| Adrian Morejon L |
|
0.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2.77 |
| David Morgan |
|
0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.01 |
Batting
| Batter | Team | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. |
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Hector Rodriguez |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Sal Stewart |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jackson Merrill |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Samad Taylor |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| JJ Bleday |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jose Trevino |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Edwin Arroyo |
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Elly De La Cruz |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jase Bowen |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
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