MLB Final Intelligence
San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers โ Recap
September 24, 2026 ยท Dodger Stadium ยท View Preview
Game Recap
The San Diego Padres staged an upset victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers, defying pregame expectations from both market odds and SportsFBI's analytics model. San Diego built a significant lead in the middle innings, notably a three-run seventh, which proved insurmountable for the favored Dodgers as the Padres held off a late push to clinch the win.
The game remained scoreless until the top of the sixth when San Diego broke the deadlock with a sacrifice fly from Harris, allowing Ethan Salas to score. The Padres then erupted for three critical runs in the top of the seventh inning. Hays opened the scoring in the frame with an infield single that brought Merrill home, and Salas followed with a single to center field, driving in Bogaerts. Tatis Jr. capped the inning with an RBI single to right, extending the lead to 4-0.
The decisive turning point was undoubtedly that three-run seventh inning, which provided the Padres with the cushion needed to withstand any Dodgers' rally. Ethan Salas was a key offensive contributor for San Diego, delivering two hits, including an RBI single in the pivotal seventh, and also scoring a run himself. Despite the loss, Dodgers' starter Tyler Glasnow delivered a strong outing, striking out 11 batters over 6.1 innings, though he surrendered three earned runs. Los Angeles struggled to generate consistent offense, managing their first run in the bottom of the eighth on a balk, and a final run in the ninth when Ohtani doubled to center, scoring Edman.
Ultimately, the Padres' ability to deliver timely hits and capitalize on their opportunities in the middle innings proved too much for the favored Dodgers. San Diego now stands at 89-70, while Los Angeles moves to 97-62.
How the Prediction Fared
Pregame, the market favored the Los Angeles Dodgers (-172, 60% implied) over the San Diego Padres. Final: the San Diego Padres won 4โ2, pulling off the upset.
SportsFBI's model favored the Los Angeles Dodgers (53% confidence). Final: the San Diego Padres won 4โ2, missing the call.
Player of the Game
Turning Point
The game turned in the 7th inning, when the San Diego Padres scored 3 runs.
Pitching
| Pitcher | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Glasnow L |
|
6.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 3.53 |
| Nick Pivetta |
|
4.2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2.86 |
| Adrian Morejon |
|
1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.86 |
| Edwin Diaz |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9.17 |
| Evan Phillips |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3.38 |
| Jason Adam |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.43 |
| Mason Miller S |
|
1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1.30 |
| Yuki Matsui W |
|
1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.84 |
| Justin Wrobleski |
|
0.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.72 |
Batting
| Batter | Team | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mookie Betts |
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Shohei Ohtani |
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ethan Salas |
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. |
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Freddie Freeman |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Austin Hays |
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jackson Merrill |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
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