NBA Final Intelligence

ATL 3-4
108 – 104
FINAL
IND 2-5

Atlanta Hawks 108, Indiana Pacers 104 — Recap

 · Recap published  · View Preview

📰Game Recap

The Atlanta Hawks held off a late surge by the Indiana Pacers to secure a 108-104 victory, largely on the strength of a dominant first-half performance led by Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Atlanta established an early advantage, outscoring Indiana 37-29 in the opening quarter and extending their lead with a 31-27 second quarter, entering halftime with a comfortable 12-point cushion. Alexander-Walker was instrumental in building the Hawks' early lead, finishing the game with a game-high 34 points, complemented by four rebounds and four assists. His perimeter shooting was particularly impactful, converting nine of his 25 attempts from beyond the arc.

Despite Atlanta's strong start, the Pacers mounted a determined comeback effort in the second half. Indiana outscored the Hawks 23-19 in the third quarter, chipping away at the deficit, and continued their push with a 25-21 advantage in the final period. The Pacers' balanced scoring attack kept the pressure on Atlanta, narrowing the gap down the stretch. Jay Huff led the Pacers' charge with 22 points and eight rebounds, supported by Quenton Jackson, who added 20 points, seven rebounds, and three assists. Braden Smith contributed a double-double with 19 points and 10 assists, alongside four rebounds, while Kobe Brown chipped in 16 points and six rebounds, including two three-pointers.

Ultimately, the Hawks' significant first-half lead proved just enough to withstand Indiana's resilient effort. Alexander-Walker's prolific scoring allowed Atlanta to maintain control, even as the Pacers found their offensive rhythm late in the game. The analytical model from SportsFBI had predicted an Atlanta victory with 71% certainty, aligning with the final result.

#AtlantaHawks #IndianaPacers #NBAGame #NickeilAlexanderWalker #JayHuff

How the Prediction Fared

✓ Model Hit

SportsFBI's model, locked before tip-off, favored the Atlanta Hawks (71% confidence). It gave a 16% chance of a 20+ point margin; the game was decided by 4 points.

💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line

Spread · ATL -9.5 IND covered Won by 4
Total · 227.5 Under 212 combined
Moneyline ATL -420 · IND +320 ATL favored
Line movementOpening line → close
Spread (IND) +5.5+9.5 +4
Total 232.5227.5 -5
Moneyline (IND) +160+320 +160

Standouts

Top Scorer · ATL
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
34 PTS, 4 REB, 4 AST, 9 3PM · 12-25 FG
Scoring · IND
Jay Huff
22 PTS, 8 REB, 2 AST · 8-14 FG
Scoring · IND
Quenton Jackson
20 PTS, 7 REB, 3 AST, 1 3PM · 7-16 FG
Season highs
Nickeil Alexander-Walker · Season-high 34 pointsJay Huff · Season-high 22 pointsCJ McCollum · Season-high 12 assistsBraden Smith · Season-high 10 assistsNickeil Alexander-Walker · Season-high 9 threesLuguentz Dort · Season-high 4 threesCorey Kispert · Season-high 4 threes

Every player's line is in the box score below; the play-by-play is available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

📊 Game Flow

ATL 15 largest lead Q3 9:48 (ATL 73, IND 58) · 8-0 run, Q1 0:24–Q2 10:57
IND 2 largest lead Q1 9:05 (ATL 7, IND 9) · 9-0 run, Q3 3:56–Q3 2:26
Swings 4 lead changes Tied 4 times

Ahead for good: Luguentz Dort makes layup (Onyeka Okongwu assists) (Q1 5:24, ATL 22, IND 20).

Linescore

1234 T
ATL 37311921 108
IND 29272325 104

🧮 How They Scored

ATLIND
26Points in the paint54
10Fast-break points14
22Second-chance points5
16Points off turnovers19
28Bench points16
Four factorsHighlighted side won the factor
50.0%Effective FG%52.5%
13.1%Turnover %16.6%
33.3%Offensive rebound %13.5%
0.078Free-throw rate0.287

🎯 Shot Chart

Atlanta Hawks40/103 FG
Nickeil Alexander-Walker: made 23 ftOnyeka Okongwu: made 10 ftDyson Daniels: missed 0 ftCJ McCollum: missed 15 ftDyson Daniels: made 0 ftLuguentz Dort: missed 11 ftCJ McCollum: made 12 ftNickeil Alexander-Walker: missed 4 ftOnyeka Okongwu: made 26 ftNickeil Alexander-Walker: made 4 ftCJ McCollum: missed 9 ftNickeil Alexander-Walker: made 23 ftOnyeka Okongwu: made 24 ftLuguentz Dort: made 2 ftNickeil Alexander-Walker: made 5 ftAaron Wiggins: made 2 ftNickeil Alexander-Walker: missed 24 ftAaron Wiggins: made 26 ftAaron Wiggins: missed 23 ftZuby Ejiofor: missed 0 ftCorey Kispert: made 25 ftDyson Daniels: missed 25 ftZuby Ejiofor: made 28 ftAaron Wiggins: missed 12 ftDyson Daniels: made 6 ftCorey Kispert: made 25 ftCorey Kispert: missed 4 ftCorey Kispert: made 25 ftCorey Kispert: made 24 ftCorey Kispert: missed 26 ftRayJ Dennis: made 16 ftAaron Wiggins: missed 25 ftCJ McCollum: missed 5 ftAsa Newell: missed 4 ftOnyeka Okongwu: missed 24 ftLuguentz Dort: made 26 ftLuguentz Dort: made 24 ftNickeil Alexander-Walker: missed 23 ftNickeil Alexander-Walker: made 24 ftCJ McCollum: made 9 ftCJ McCollum: missed 1 ftCJ McCollum: missed 10 ftCJ McCollum: made 25 ftCJ McCollum: missed 25 ftOnyeka Okongwu: missed 6 ftCJ McCollum: missed 24 ftNickeil Alexander-Walker: made 11 ftCJ McCollum: missed 28 ftNickeil Alexander-Walker: made 24 ftLuguentz Dort: missed 25 ftOnyeka Okongwu: missed 24 ftDyson Daniels: missed 11 ftNickeil Alexander-Walker: missed 26 ftOnyeka Okongwu: missed 22 ftNickeil Alexander-Walker: missed 17 ftCJ McCollum: made 29 ftDyson Daniels: made 7 ftCJ McCollum: missed 13 ftDyson Daniels: missed 12 ftNickeil Alexander-Walker: made 24 ftLuguentz Dort: missed 25 ftNickeil Alexander-Walker: made 24 ftNickeil Alexander-Walker: missed 12 ftLuguentz Dort: missed 9 ftNickeil Alexander-Walker: missed 5 ftAaron Wiggins: made 8 ftCorey Kispert: missed 24 ftNickeil Alexander-Walker: missed 1 ftAaron Wiggins: missed 29 ftAaron Wiggins: missed 13 ftCorey Kispert: made 3 ftDyson Daniels: missed 4 ftDyson Daniels: missed 3 ftDyson Daniels: missed 11 ftLuguentz Dort: made 25 ftAaron Wiggins: missed 24 ftCorey Kispert: missed 27 ftRayJ Dennis: made 13 ftZuby Ejiofor: missed 24 ftZuby Ejiofor: missed 5 ftAaron Wiggins: missed 1 ftRayJ Dennis: missed 27 ftRayJ Dennis: missed 28 ftAaron Wiggins: missed 26 ftNickeil Alexander-Walker: made 23 ftAaron Wiggins: missed 4 ftOnyeka Okongwu: missed 2 ftOnyeka Okongwu: made 2 ftCJ McCollum: missed 11 ftLuguentz Dort: made 25 ftNickeil Alexander-Walker: made 27 ftCJ McCollum: missed 25 ftOnyeka Okongwu: missed 3 ftNickeil Alexander-Walker: missed 3 ftNickeil Alexander-Walker: missed 26 ftNickeil Alexander-Walker: made 25 ftCJ McCollum: missed 4 ftNickeil Alexander-Walker: missed 26 ftLuguentz Dort: missed 3 ftNickeil Alexander-Walker: missed 25 ftCJ McCollum: missed 25 ftNickeil Alexander-Walker: missed 3 ftOnyeka Okongwu: made 12 ft
  • 31%Restricted Area5 of 16
  • 32%Paint (non-RA)8 of 25
  • 36%Mid-Range4 of 11
  • 50%Left Corner 35 of 10
  • 50%Right Corner 33 of 6
  • 43%Above-break 315 of 35
Indiana Pacers38/80 FG
Quenton Jackson: made 12 ftQuenton Jackson: missed 27 ftJarace Walker: made 4 ftJay Huff: made 2 ftQuenton Jackson: made 3 ftBraden Smith: made 1 ftQuenton Jackson: missed 24 ftJay Huff: made 2 ftJarace Walker: made 1 ftJay Huff: missed 26 ftKobe Brown: made 3 ftJalen Slawson: made 22 ftJalen Slawson: missed 31 ftBraden Smith: made 4 ftJarace Walker: missed 26 ftJalen Slawson: missed 26 ftJarace Walker: missed 24 ftJay Huff: made 1 ftQuenton Jackson: missed 1 ftJalen Slawson: missed 0 ftQuenton Jackson: made 24 ftQuenton Jackson: missed 26 ftJalen Slawson: missed 2 ftBraden Smith: missed 3 ftJarace Walker: missed 2 ftKobe Brown: made 27 ftQuenton Jackson: missed 3 ftKobe Brown: made 8 ftJarace Walker: made 12 ftKobe Brown: missed 24 ftJalen Slawson: missed 26 ftJay Huff: made 0 ftJay Huff: made 2 ftJay Huff: made 2 ftBraden Smith: made 11 ftQuenton Jackson: made 2 ftJarace Walker: missed 10 ftKobe Brown: made 24 ftJay Huff: missed 25 ftKobe Brown: made 3 ftKobe Brown: missed 22 ftJarace Walker: missed 23 ftJay Huff: made 11 ftJay Huff: missed 27 ftJarace Walker: missed 4 ftBraden Smith: made 4 ftQuenton Jackson: missed 8 ftJarace Walker: made 26 ftJalen Slawson: made 27 ftJalen Slawson: missed 26 ftBraden Smith: missed 8 ftJarace Walker: made 2 ftBraden Smith: missed 15 ftKobe Brown: missed 27 ftJay Huff: missed 6 ftQuenton Jackson: missed 25 ftBraden Smith: made 24 ftBraden Smith: made 3 ftBraden Smith: missed 24 ftJarace Walker: made 1 ftBraden Smith: made 14 ftJay Huff: missed 25 ftJalen Slawson: missed 14 ftBraden Smith: missed 5 ftJarace Walker: missed 25 ftJarace Walker: missed 1 ftKobe Brown: missed 4 ftKobe Brown: made 3 ftJalen Slawson: missed 26 ftJalen Slawson: made 5 ftQuenton Jackson: made 3 ftQuenton Jackson: made 0 ftKobe Brown: missed 26 ftJay Huff: made 7 ftQuenton Jackson: missed 29 ftBraden Smith: made 25 ftJarace Walker: missed 26 ftQuenton Jackson: made 2 ftQuenton Jackson: missed 25 ftJay Huff: missed 25 ft
  • 73%Restricted Area19 of 26
  • 53%Paint (non-RA)8 of 15
  • 60%Mid-Range3 of 5
  • 25%Left Corner 31 of 4
  • 50%Right Corner 32 of 4
  • 19%Above-break 35 of 26

● made · ✕ missed, from the official shot log.

Box Score

Atlanta Hawks

Player MINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTOFG3PTFT+/-
Onyeka Okongwu F-C 33131030005-112-51-2+2
CJ McCollum G 33139121134-172-73-4+8
Nickeil Alexander-Walker G 31344440412-259-151-1+6
Luguentz Dort G 3114201005-104-60-0+11
Dyson Daniels G 316943123-100-10-0-1
Aaron Wiggins G 247321023-121-60-1+7
Corey Kispert F 1814101025-94-70-0-9
Asa Newell F 170411120-10-00-0-7
Zuby Ejiofor F 153520011-41-20-0+2
RayJ Dennis G 84220102-40-20-0+1

Indiana Pacers

Player MINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTOFG3PTFT+/-
Jarace Walker F 4515731116-151-62-3-11
Braden Smith G 42194103158-132-31-2-2
Jalen Slawson F 4112733323-112-74-4-8
Jay Huff F-C 4022820248-140-56-7+3
Kobe Brown F 3816611016-112-62-2-1
Quenton Jackson G 3520734257-161-75-5-1

🔬 Advanced Stats

Atlanta HawksTS% true shooting · USG% usage · NET net rating · PIE player impact
PlayerRoleMINPTSTS%USG%NETPIE
Nickeil Alexander-Walker Starter 31:233466.834.1+8.816.5
Luguentz Dort Starter 30:501470.011.8+13.34.9
CJ McCollum Starter 32:291334.625.6+11.610.2
Onyeka Okongwu Starter 33:251354.713.2+1.310.6
Dyson Daniels Starter 30:30630.014.5+0.17.0
Corey Kispert Bench 18:051477.824.4-21.718.9
Aaron Wiggins Bench 23:57728.122.6+15.8-1.2
RayJ Dennis Bench 7:36450.021.1+5.929.5
Zuby Ejiofor Bench 14:35337.513.9+12.57.4
Dorian Finney-Smith Bench 000.00.00.00.0
Asa Newell Bench 17:1000.07.0-16.70.9
Kingston Flemings Bench 000.00.00.00.0
Indiana PacersTS% true shooting · USG% usage · NET net rating · PIE player impact
PlayerRoleMINPTSTS%USG%NETPIE
Jay Huff Starter 40:062264.422.2+3.612.2
Quenton Jackson Starter 34:302054.928.2-2.813.4
Braden Smith Starter 42:131968.419.4-2.213.9
Jarace Walker Starter 44:411546.016.8-10.67.9
Jalen Slawson Starter 40:391247.016.0-10.27.2
Kobe Brown Bench 37:511667.314.80.011.1
Kelly Oubre Jr. Bench 000.00.00.00.0
Pascal Siakam Bench 000.00.00.00.0
Ivica Zubac Bench 000.00.00.00.0
Obi Toppin Bench 000.00.00.00.0
Aaron Nesmith Bench 000.00.00.00.0
Andrew Nembhard Bench 000.00.00.00.0

🎟️ Player Props Results Consensus lines

PlayerPropLineActualResult
Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL Points21.534 Over
Rebounds3.54 Over
Assists3.54 Over
3-pointers3.59 Over
Reb + Ast7.58 Over
Jay Huff IND Points14.522 Over
Rebounds6.58 Over
3-pointers1.50 Under
Quenton Jackson IND Points18.520 Over
Rebounds3.57 Over
Assists6.53 Under
3-pointers1.51 Under
Reb + Ast10.510 Under
Jarace Walker IND Points17.515 Under
Rebounds7.57 Under
Assists3.53 Under
3-pointers2.51 Under
Pts + Reb25.522 Under
Reb + Ast11.510 Under
Pts + Reb + Ast29.525 Under
CJ McCollum ATL Points17.513 Under
Rebounds2.59 Over
Assists4.512 Over
3-pointers2.52 Under
Pts + Reb + Ast25.534 Over
Onyeka Okongwu ATL Points14.513 Under
Rebounds9.510 Over
Assists3.53 Under
3-pointers1.52 Over
Reb + Ast12.513 Over
Pts + Reb + Ast27.526 Under

The last pregame line, graded against the final box score.

⚔️ Season Series & What's Next

2026-27 season series ATL 1 – 0 IND
Last 21 meetings · since 2020-21 ATL 12 – 9 IND
Previous meetingsOpen the recap
After this game
Atlanta Hawks 4-4 W1 L10 4-4 Next game: @ WAS · Wed, Nov 4
Indiana Pacers 2-6 L5 L10 2-6 Next game: @ MEM · Wed, Nov 4

🔍 Key Suspects Results

4 of 6 graded picks hit. Pushes and voided picks are not counted.

ATL — Away
Dyson Daniels Dyson Daniels G Reb+Ast 12.5 UNDER MISS Actual 13
CJ McCollum CJ McCollum G Assists 4.5 UNDER MISS Actual 11
Onyeka Okongwu Onyeka Okongwu F-C Assists 3.5 UNDER HIT Actual 3
Luguentz Dort Luguentz Dort G Rebounds 3.5 UNDER HIT Actual 2
Aaron Wiggins Aaron Wiggins G Rebounds 4.5 UNDER HIT Actual 3
IND — Home
Jarace Walker Jarace Walker F Threes 2.5 UNDER HIT Actual 1
Kelly Oubre Jr. Kelly Oubre Jr. F Rebounds 5.5 UNDER VOID

Sharper Picks Start Here

Live odds, Key Suspects, player props, DFS rankings, and real-time game tracking — all in one workspace built for serious bettors and DFS players.