NBA Final Intelligence

DEN 5-4
123 – 118
FINAL
MEM 7-3

Denver Nuggets 123, Memphis Grizzlies 118 — Recap

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📰Game Recap

The Denver Nuggets defeated the Memphis Grizzlies 123-118 behind a dominant first half that established a decisive cushion. SportsFBI's pregame model leaned 53% toward Denver, a projection vindicated by Jamal Murray scoring 30 points with 8 assists and 4 three-pointers on 12-of-19 shooting. Nikola Jokic added 27 points, 11 rebounds, and 8 assists while shooting 10-of-16, and Cameron Johnson contributed 23 points and 4 threes on 9-of-15 shooting.

Denver asserted control immediately in the opening quarter, outscoring Memphis 35-24. The Nuggets extended that advantage slightly in the second period with a 30-28 edge, sending them into halftime with a comfortable lead. Murray, Jokic, and Johnson combined for high-efficiency scoring to keep the Memphis defense on its heels throughout the first twenty-four minutes.

Memphis mounted a fierce comeback after the intermission, dominating the third quarter 38-29 to narrow the deficit significantly. Ty Jerome fueled the Grizzlies' charge with 22 points, 5 assists, and 2 rebounds on 9-of-18 shooting, while Jaylen Wells matched him with 22 points, sinking 5 three-pointers on 6-of-13 shooting.

Both teams traded baskets in a tightly contested fourth quarter, which Denver narrowly claimed 29-28 to stave off the Grizzlies' rally. The early first-half separation ultimately preserved the outcome, allowing the Nuggets to secure the 123-118 victory despite Memphis winning the second-half scoring margin.

#DenverNuggets #MemphisGrizzlies #JamalMurray #NikolaJokic #NBA

How the Prediction Fared

✓ Model Hit

SportsFBI's model, locked before tip-off, favored the Denver Nuggets (53% confidence). It gave a 11% chance of a 20+ point margin; the game was decided by 5 points.

💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line

Spread · DEN -3.5 DEN covered Won by 5
Total · 230.5 Over 241 combined
Moneyline DEN -166 · MEM +140 DEN favored
Line movementOpening line → close
Spread (MEM) +4.5+3.5 -1
Total 228.5230.5 +2
Moneyline (MEM) +138+140 +2

Standouts

Top Scorer · DEN
30 PTS, 4 REB, 8 AST, 4 3PM · 12-19 FG
Scoring · DEN
27 PTS, 11 REB, 8 AST, 1 3PM · 10-16 FG
Scoring · DEN
23 PTS, 4 REB, 3 AST, 4 3PM · 9-15 FG
Season highs
Cameron Johnson · Season-high 23 pointsJaylen Wells · Season-high 22 pointsJaylen Wells · Season-high 5 threes

Every player's line is in the box score below; the play-by-play is available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

📊 Game Flow

DEN 18 largest lead Q2 10:07 (DEN 42, MEM 24) · 12-0 run, Q1 4:46–Q1 2:47
MEM 0 largest lead Never led · 10-0 run, Q2 9:55–Q2 7:10
Swings 0 lead changes Tied 1 time

Ahead for good: Christian Braun makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists) (Q1 5:35, DEN 16, MEM 13).

Linescore

1234 T
DEN 35302929 123
MEM 24283828 118

🧮 How They Scored

DENMEM
Four factorsHighlighted side won the factor
57.1%Effective FG%55.6%
3.7%Turnover %10.1%
26.8%Offensive rebound %31.6%
0.163Free-throw rate0.236

Box Score

Denver Nuggets

Player MINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTOFG3PTFT+/-
Christian Braun G 3712541105-132-60-0-2
Nikola Jokic C 372711811110-161-36-8+5
Jamal Murray G 32304802112-194-72-3+11
Cameron Johnson F 3023431009-154-71-1+3
Aaron Gordon F 279321213-111-72-2-1
Spencer Jones F 223100111-31-30-0+3
DeMar DeRozan G 208140104-90-20-2+3
Trevon Brazile F 137500103-41-20-0+1
Marvin Bagley III F 124210102-60-00-0+1
Tyus Jones G 110140100-20-10-0+1

Memphis Grizzlies

Player MINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTOFG3PTFT+/-
Cameron Boozer F 33131151025-132-71-2-2
Ty Jerome G 3222250019-181-53-3+9
Jaylen Wells F 3122210026-135-105-5+5
Cedric Coward G 27151140015-121-44-40
Jerami Grant F 2014220016-92-30-0-6
Cam Spencer G 2015330125-73-42-2-10
Zach Edey C 202500111-40-00-0+3
Isaiah Stewart F-C 183220011-41-20-0-8
Javon Small G 153140101-51-40-0-10
GG Jackson F 132101101-30-10-1-4
Taylor Hendricks F 117210001-11-14-4-2

⚔️ Season Series & What's Next

2026-27 season series DEN 1 – 0 MEM
Last 22 meetings · since 2020-21 DEN 16 – 6 MEM
Previous meetingsOpen the recap
After this game
Denver Nuggets 6-4 W1 L10 6-4 Next game: @ NOP · Sat, Nov 14
Memphis Grizzlies 7-4 L1 L10 6-4 Next game: @ NOP · Fri, Nov 13

🔍 Key Suspects Results

5 of 8 graded picks hit. Pushes and voided picks are not counted.

DEN — Away
Christian Braun Christian Braun G Points 10 HIT Actual 12
Cameron Johnson Cameron Johnson F Rebounds 3.5 OVER HIT Actual 4
Trevon Brazile F Rebounds 4 HIT Actual 5
Spencer Jones Spencer Jones F Rebounds 2.5 OVER MISS Actual 1
MEM — Home
Cedric Coward Cedric Coward G Points 13.5 UNDER MISS Actual 15
Cam Spencer Cam Spencer G Assists 4 MISS Actual 3
Jaylen Wells Jaylen Wells F Points 10 HIT Actual 22
Ty Jerome Ty Jerome G Assists 5.5 UNDER HIT Actual 5

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