NBA Final Intelligence

IND 3-7
122 – 125
FINAL
DAL 6-4

Indiana Pacers 122, Dallas Mavericks 125 — Recap

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📰Game Recap

The Dallas Mavericks defeated the Indiana Pacers 125-122, overcoming a halftime deficit behind dominant performances from Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving. SportsFBI's pregame model leaned toward Dallas at 76 percent probability, and the visitors ultimately delivered despite a strong early push from Indiana. The Pacers established control in the opening frame with a 31-26 advantage and built further separation by outscoring Dallas 35-30 in the second quarter to carry a 66-56 lead into halftime.

Dallas shifted the momentum decisively in the third quarter, roaring back with a 34-27 scoring edge to narrow the deficit before completing the comeback in the final period. The Mavericks poured in 35 points in the fourth quarter while holding the Pacers to 29, securing the three-point victory.

Cooper Flagg anchored the Dallas offense with 43 points, 10 rebounds, and 6 assists, shooting 16 of 25 from the field including 3 three-pointers. Kyrie Irving added 35 points for the Mavericks, fueling the perimeter attack with 7 shots from beyond the arc on 11-of-18 overall shooting. Pascal Siakam paced Indiana with 29 points, 9 rebounds, and 8 assists, hitting 5 threes on 9-of-16 shooting. Aaron Nesmith contributed 18 points with 4 triples, and Ivica Zubac chipped in 16 points on 5-of-7 shooting in the loss.

#Mavericks #Pacers #CooperFlagg #NBA

How the Prediction Fared

✓ Model Hit

SportsFBI's model, locked before tip-off, favored the Dallas Mavericks (76% confidence). It gave a 19% chance of a 20+ point margin; the game was decided by 3 points.

💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line

Spread · DAL -4.5 IND covered Won by 3
Total · 227.5 Over 247 combined
Moneyline IND +154 · DAL -186 DAL favored
Line movementOpening line → close
Spread (DAL) -2.5-4.5 -2
Total 221.5227.5 +6
Moneyline (DAL) -136-186 -50

Standouts

Top Scorer · DAL
43 PTS, 10 REB, 6 AST, 3 3PM · 16-25 FG
Scoring · DAL
35 PTS, 0 REB, 4 AST, 7 3PM · 11-18 FG
Scoring · IND
29 PTS, 9 REB, 8 AST, 5 3PM · 9-16 FG
Season highs
Cooper Flagg · Season-high 43 pointsPascal Siakam · Season-high 8 assistsKyrie Irving · Season-high 7 threesPascal Siakam · Season-high 5 threesAaron Nesmith · Season-high 4 threes

Every player's line is in the box score below; the play-by-play is available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

📊 Game Flow

IND 13 largest lead Q2 1:36 (IND 63, DAL 50) · 13-0 run, Q2 5:18–Q2 3:08
DAL 8 largest lead Q4 4:19 (IND 108, DAL 116) · 11-0 run, Q1 5:05–Q1 2:38
Swings 5 lead changes Tied 6 times

Ahead for good: Kyrie Irving makes 23-foot three point jumper (Caleb Martin assists) (Q4 9:36, IND 97, DAL 98).

Clutch timeEvery score of the final five minutes
  • Q4 2:45 Andrew Nembhard makes free throw 1 of 1IND · IND 113, DAL 116
  • Q4 1:41 Naji Marshall makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot (Kyrie Irving assists)DAL · IND 113, DAL 118
  • Q4 1:14 Aaron Nesmith makes free throw 1 of 3IND · IND 114, DAL 118
  • Q4 1:14 Aaron Nesmith makes free throw 2 of 3IND · IND 115, DAL 118
  • Q4 1:14 Aaron Nesmith makes free throw 3 of 3IND · IND 116, DAL 118
  • Q4 1:02 Cooper Flagg makes 18-foot pullup jump shotDAL · IND 116, DAL 120
  • Q4 0:52 Aaron Nesmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND · IND 119, DAL 120
  • Q4 0:38 Naji Marshall makes free throw 1 of 2DAL · IND 119, DAL 121
  • Q4 0:26 Cooper Flagg makes 18-foot pullup jump shotDAL · IND 119, DAL 123
  • Q4 0:20 Aaron Nesmith makes 24-foot three pointer (Pascal Siakam assists)IND · IND 122, DAL 123
  • Q4 0:18 Kyrie Irving makes free throw 1 of 2DAL · IND 122, DAL 124
  • Q4 0:18 Kyrie Irving makes free throw 2 of 2DAL · IND 122, DAL 125

Linescore

1234 T
IND 31352729 122
DAL 26303435 125

🧮 How They Scored

INDDAL
Four factorsHighlighted side won the factor
61.6%Effective FG%60.2%
12.1%Turnover %13.3%
2.9%Offensive rebound %27.8%
0.341Free-throw rate0.410

Box Score

Indiana Pacers

Player MINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTOFG3PTFT+/-
Pascal Siakam F 3529982009-165-86-8-5
Andrew Nembhard G-F 34123120135-101-21-1+15
Aaron Nesmith G-F 3418221125-144-104-6-5
Ivica Zubac C 2816300015-70-06-8+6
Quenton Jackson G 2510542014-62-30-0+6
Kelly Oubre Jr. F 2314220026-91-31-1-8
Obi Toppin F 1910240005-80-20-00
Larry Nance Jr. F 144002001-30-22-2-7
Braden Smith G 100001000-00-00-0-3
Jarace Walker F 107100002-72-51-2-9
T.J. McConnell G 82031041-20-00-0-5

Dallas Mavericks

Player MINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTOFG3PTFT+/-
Cooper Flagg F 394310631516-253-68-8-8
Kyrie Irving G 38350400211-187-106-7+29
P.J. Washington F 3513912224-122-83-6-2
Naji Marshall F 256521012-40-02-5-7
Walter Clayton Jr. G 256641122-61-41-2+1
Daniel Gafford F 208231002-30-04-5+15
Santi Aldama F 1910410024-91-51-1+4
Caleb Martin F 190351000-20-00-0-11
Zaccharie Risacher F 154200012-40-10-0-13
Max Christie G 50200000-00-00-0+7

⚔️ Season Series & What's Next

2026-27 season series IND 0 – 2 DAL
Last 14 meetings · since 2020-21 IND 7 – 7 DAL
Previous meetingsOpen the recap
After this game
Indiana Pacers 3-8 L2 L10 2-8 Next game: vs WAS · Wed, Nov 11
Dallas Mavericks 7-4 W3 L10 7-3 Next game: @ MIN · Thu, Nov 12

🔍 Key Suspects Results

5 of 7 graded picks hit. Pushes and voided picks are not counted.

IND — Away
Aaron Nesmith Aaron Nesmith G-F Rebounds 3.5 UNDER HIT Actual 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. Kelly Oubre Jr. F Points 7.5 OVER HIT Actual 14
DAL — Home
Kyrie Irving Kyrie Irving G Assists 4 HIT Actual 4
Santi Aldama Santi Aldama F Rebounds 4 HIT Actual 4
Cooper Flagg Cooper Flagg F Pts+Reb 31.5 UNDER MISS Actual 53
Naji Marshall Naji Marshall F Assists 4 MISS Actual 2
Daniel Gafford Daniel Gafford F Rebounds 6.5 UNDER HIT Actual 2

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