Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Buffalo Bills face Denver Broncos in Week 16 at Empower Field at Mile High. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Buffalo Bills enter with a 5-1 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 32.8 points scored and 28.5 allowed. Their current streak is 2 wins.
Denver Broncos enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 19.0 points scored and 20.8 allowed. Their current streak is 2 wins.
The scoring matchup puts Buffalo Bills’s 32.8 points per game against a Denver Broncos defense allowing 20.8. In the other direction, Denver Broncos average 19.0 against Buffalo Bills’s 28.5 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Buffalo Bills have injury designations to monitor: DJ Moore (WR) — Questionable; Ed Oliver (DT) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Denver Broncos have injury designations to monitor: Tyler Badie (RB) — Questionable; Talanoa Hufanga (S) — Doubtful; Pat Surtain II (CB) — Doubtful. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Denver Broncos are Home field / environment; Pass defense.
The strongest model adjustments toward Buffalo Bills are Starting QB efficiency; Run-game matchup.
The current model sees a closely balanced matchup with no strong projected edge.
- 🏈 Record: Buffalo Bills 5-1
- 🏈 Record: Denver Broncos 4-2
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
BUFA Starting QB efficiency +1.2 Moderate
Bo Nix (2026) 60.3% CMP / 5.6 Y/A / 3.2% TD / 1.6% INT / 79.4 RATE · Josh Allen (2026) 66.7% CMP / 8.8 Y/A / 5.3% TD / 2.3% INT / 102.1 RATE
BUFA Run-game matchup +1.0 Very Strong
DEN 3.4 rush Y/A / 4.7 allowed | BUF 5.1 / 3.8 | PBP 80% stuff avoided | 86% stuff avoided
DENH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
DEN home field | DEN 71 days / BUF 68 days
DENH Pass defense +0.93 Strong
DEN 5.3 net Y/A / 56.5% CMP / 73.1 RATE | BUF 6.8 / 64.9% / 102.5
BUFA Explosive-play differential +0.89 Strong
3% / 6% allowed | 9% / 7% allowed
DENH OL vs DL matchup +0.73 Moderate
DEN OL sack 4.1% / DEF sack 7.7% | BUF 6.6% / 4.3%
BUFA Early-down efficiency +0.63 Moderate
36% / 42% allowed | 48% / 48% allowed
DENH Key injury availability +0.50 Weak
DEN 0 unavailable starters · BUF 1
DENH Game-script tendencies +0.48 Moderate
57% neutral pass / 55 plays | 53% / 56
BUFA Third-down efficiency +0.43 Strong
DEN OFF 31.6% / DEF 44.4% | BUF 47.6% / 45.0% | PBP 59%/25%/21% | 67%/74%/27%
DENH Schedule strength +0.36 Strong
DEN 58% opp wins · BUF 41%
BUFA Record quality +0.33 Moderate
DEN 4-2 · BUF 5-1
DENH Turnover differential +0.22 Moderate
DEN 1.0 GIVE / 1.7 TAKE | BUF 1.5 / 1.0
DENH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.19 Weak
61% / 53% allowed | 69% / 69% allowed
BUFA Special teams efficiency +0.16 Moderate
DEN FG 75.0% / NET PUNT 45.9 | BUF 100.0% / 46.0
BUFA Raw scoring differential +0.08 Weak
DEN 19.0 PPG · BUF 32.8 PPG | DEN 20.8 PA/G · BUF 28.5 PA/G
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