Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Green Bay Packers face Chicago Bears in Week 16 at Soldier Field. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Green Bay Packers enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 21.2 points scored and 20.8 allowed. Their current streak is 3 wins.
Chicago Bears enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.0 points scored and 19.8 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Green Bay Packers’s 21.2 points per game against a Chicago Bears defense allowing 19.8. In the other direction, Chicago Bears average 25.0 against Green Bay Packers’s 20.8 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Green Bay Packers have injury designations to monitor: Aaron Banks (G) — Questionable; Benjamin St-Juste (CB) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Chicago Bears have injury designations to monitor: T.J. Edwards (LB) — Questionable; Jonah Jackson (G) — Questionable; Tony Fields II (LB) — IR-R. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Chicago Bears are Home field / environment; Run-game matchup.
The strongest model adjustments toward Green Bay Packers are Explosive-play differential; Pass defense.
The current model leans toward CHI at 53.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Green Bay Packers 4-2
- 🏈 Record: Chicago Bears 4-2
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
GBA Explosive-play differential +1.1 Very Strong
6% / 8% allowed | 8% / 4% allowed
CHIH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
CHI home field | CHI 68 days / GB 68 days
CHIH Run-game matchup +0.60 Moderate
CHI 4.5 rush Y/A / 4.5 allowed | GB 2.9 / 4.0 | PBP 81% stuff avoided | 69% stuff avoided
CHIH Third-down efficiency +0.52 Strong
CHI OFF 45.5% / DEF 25.8% | GB 35.5% / 43.4% | PBP 53%/60%/25% | 60%/36%/21%
GBA Pass defense +0.51 Moderate
CHI 7.1 net Y/A / 62.6% CMP / 99.9 RATE | GB 5.1 / 64.5% / 73.9
GBA Recent form +0.30 Moderate
CHI W1 · GB W3
CHIH Starting QB efficiency +0.25 Weak
Caleb Williams (2026) 72.5% CMP / 7.8 Y/A / 3.3% TD / 1.1% INT / 101.5 RATE · Jordan Love (2026) 59.7% CMP / 7.5 Y/A / 4.9% TD / 1.8% INT / 91.8 RATE
CHIH Raw scoring differential +0.19 Weak
CHI 25.0 PPG · GB 21.2 PPG | CHI 19.8 PA/G · GB 20.8 PA/G
CHIH OL vs DL matchup +0.17 Weak
CHI OL sack 6.7% / DEF sack 9.4% | GB 5.4% / 6.6%
GBA Turnover differential +0.15 Moderate
CHI 1.8 GIVE / 1.5 TAKE | GB 1.2 / 1.8
CHIH Early-down efficiency +0.15 Weak
43% / 45% allowed | 40% / 44% allowed
CHIH Schedule strength +0.14 Weak
CHI 54% opp wins · GB 47%
GBA Special teams efficiency +0.14 Weak
CHI FG 72.7% / NET PUNT 45.6 | GB 76.9% / 47.3
CHIH Game-script tendencies +0.13 Weak
52% neutral pass / 69 plays | 57% / 59
CHIH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.12 Weak
50% / 67% allowed | 50% / 75% allowed
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