NFL Matchup Intelligence
Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears
September 28, 2026 Β· 8:15 PM ET Β· Soldier Field
PHI 2-2
Β·
CHI 3-1
Matchup Analysis SportsFBI AI
The 2-0 Philadelphia Eagles, riding a two-game winning streak, visit the 1-1 Chicago Bears at Soldier Field for Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season. Philadelphia has outscored opponents 48-42 through its undefeated start. The Bears, coming off a loss, have a 1-1 record with 62 points scored and 46 allowed. Both clubs have several players listed as questionable for the contest, including Eagles running back Saquon Barkley and defensive tackle Jalen Carter, alongside Bears running back D'Andre Swift and offensive tackle Darnell Wright.
SportsFBI's analytical model projects an edge for Philadelphia with 65% confidence, diverging from the initial betting market, which slightly favors Chicago at -118 on the moneyline. This projection is primarily driven by the model's assessment of key injury availability, which heavily favors the Eagles. Additionally, Philadelphia's strong record quality and recent form contribute to the analytics' lean. These factors are projected to outweigh Chicago's home-field advantage, a notable factor in the model's analysis that pushes toward the Bears.
SportsFBI Model
βοΈ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
PHIA Key injury availability +2.5 Very Strong
CHI 1 unavailable starters Β· PHI 0
CHIH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
CHI home field | CHI 8 days / PHI 8 days
CHIH OL vs DL matchup +0.71 Moderate
CHI OL sack 5.0% / DEF sack 9.2% | PHI 9.4% / 2.8%
PHIA Record quality +0.50 Moderate
CHI 1-1 Β· PHI 2-0
CHIH Schedule strength +0.50 Very Strong
CHI 67% opp wins Β· PHI 17%
PHIA Recent form +0.45 Moderate
CHI L1 Β· PHI W2
CHIH Raw scoring differential +0.25 Moderate
CHI 28.0 PPG Β· PHI 18.8 PPG | CHI 16.3 PA/G Β· PHI 23.3 PA/G
CHIH Game-script tendencies +0.20 Weak
46% neutral pass / 66 plays | 51% / 60
CHIH Pass defense +0.17 Weak
CHI 6.6 net Y/A / 58.6% CMP / 84.4 RATE | PHI 6.2 / 62.6% / 85.1
CHIH Third-down efficiency +0.13 Weak
CHI OFF 47.4% / DEF 23.7% | PHI 35.8% / 40.4% | PBP 50%/73%/38% | 50%/75%/55%
CHIH Turnover differential +0.10 Weak
CHI 1.3 GIVE / 1.5 TAKE | PHI 1.3 / 0.5
PHIA Explosive-play differential +0.08 Weak
8% / 8% allowed | 8% / 5% allowed
CHIH Early-down efficiency +0.05 Weak
41% / 42% allowed | 31% / 34% allowed
CHIH Run-game matchup +0.03 Weak
CHI 4.9 rush Y/A / 4.9 allowed | PHI 4.2 / 4.0 | PBP 85% stuff avoided | 72% stuff avoided
PHIA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.03 Weak
57% / 80% allowed | 57% / 71% allowed
PHIA Special teams efficiency +0.01 Weak
CHI FG 87.5% / NET PUNT 45.8 | PHI 100.0% / 43.4
Betting Lines DraftKings
π Key Suspects
Jalen HurtsQB
Interceptions
0.5 UNDER
Score 72 · View evidence ›
Saquon BarkleyRB
Rushing Yards (1Q)
17.5 UNDER
Score 66 · View evidence ›
Rome OdunzeWR
Receiving Yards (1Q)
0.5 UNDER
Score 77 · View evidence ›
Colston LovelandTE
Longest Reception
14.5 UNDER
Score 77 · View evidence ›
Luther Burden IIIWR
Longest Reception
16.5 UNDER
Score 74 · View evidence ›
Cairo SantosPK
Kicking Points
9.5 UNDER
Score 65 · View evidence ›
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
See the Full Analysis
All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges β available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.