NHL Final Intelligence

Calgary Flames 2, San Jose Sharks 1 — Recap

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📰Game Recap

Calgary secured a 2-1 victory over San Jose on Thursday, with timely scoring proving decisive. The Flames opened the scoring in the first period when Adam Klapka found the net at 14:36, assisted by Jonathan Castagna, giving Calgary a 1-0 lead to close out the period.

The second period passed without a goal from either side, maintaining Calgary's narrow advantage. The Flames then extended their lead in the third period at 9:14 when William Stromgren scored, with Klapka and Castagna earning their second assists of the game to make it 2-0.

San Jose responded less than three minutes later, as Sam Dickinson scored at 11:57 of the third period, assisted by Jacob Trouba and Kiefer Sherwood, narrowing Calgary's lead to 2-1. Flames goaltender Dustin Wolf made 26 saves on 27 shots, while Sharks netminder Yaroslav Askarov stopped 20 of 22 shots. SportsFBI's pregame model had leaned toward San Jose with a 54% probability, a prediction that did not materialize. The Sharks' record now stands at 7-7-1, while the Flames improved to 6-8-0.

#CalgaryFlames #SanJoseSharks #NHLRecap #Hockey

How the Prediction Fared

⚡ Upset

Before puck drop, DraftKings favored the San Jose Sharks (-125, 56% implied) over the Calgary Flames. The underdog won.

⚡ Model Missed

SportsFBI's model, locked before puck drop, favored the San Jose Sharks (54% confidence). It gave a 32% chance of a 3+ goal margin; the game was decided by 1 goal.

💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line

Puck line · SJS -1.5 CGY covered Won by 1
Total · 6.5 Under 3 combined
Moneyline CGY +104 · SJS -125 SJS favored
Line movementOpening line → close
Puck line (SJS) -1.5-1.5 No move
Total 6.56.5 No move
Moneyline (SJS) -142-125 +17

Standouts

Top Scorer · CGY
1 G, 1 A, 2 PTS, 2 SOG · 11:36 TOI
Goals · SJS
1 G, 0 A, 1 PTS, 2 SOG · 18:55 TOI
Season highs
Tyler Toffoli · Season-high 6 shots on goalJacob Trouba · Season-high 6 shots on goal

Every skater's and goalie's line is in the box score below.

📊 Game Flow

CGY 2 largest lead P3 9:14 (CGY 2, SJS 0) · 2-0 run, P1 14:36–P3 9:14
SJS 0 largest lead Never led
Swings 0 lead changes Tied 0 times
Scoring summary
  • P1 14:36 Adam Klapka (Jonathan Castagna) CGY · wrist shot · CGY 1, SJS 0
  • P3 9:14 William Stromgren (Adam Klapka, Jonathan Castagna) CGY · bat shot · CGY 2, SJS 0
  • P3 11:57 Sam Dickinson (Michael Misa, Jacob Trouba) SJS · wrist shot · CGY 2, SJS 1

Linescore

123 T
CGY 101 2
SJS 001 1

Shots on goal: CGY 22, SJS 27

📋 Team Stats

CGYSJS
22Shots on goal27
53Shot attempts59
22Faceoff wins36
20Hits22
20Blocked shots8
0Power-play goals0
4Takeaways3
13Giveaways17
4Penalty minutes6
96.3%Save %90.9%
Shots on goal by period
TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY126422
SJS6111027

🎯 Shot Map

Calgary Flames2 G · 32 attempts
Jake Middleton: saved (wrist)Jake Middleton: saved (wrist)Zach Whitecloud: saved (slap)Mikael Backlund: saved (wrist)Yan Kuznetsov: saved (wrist)Ryan Strome: saved (wrist)Simon Nemec: saved (wrist)Ryan Strome: missed the netAdam Klapka: goal (wrist)Simon Nemec: saved (backhand)Mikael Backlund: saved (wrist)Mikael Backlund: saved (tip-in)Yegor Sharangovich: saved (wrist)Matvei Gridin: saved (wrist)Mikael Backlund: saved (snap)Adam Klapka: saved (wrist)Martin Pospisil: missed the netYegor Sharangovich: saved (snap)Ryan Strome: missed the netYan Kuznetsov: saved (wrist)Ryan Strome: missed the netZayne Parekh: missed the netAydar Suniev: missed the netMorgan Frost: saved (wrist)Yegor Sharangovich: missed the netMikael Backlund: missed the netJoel Farabee: saved (wrist)William Stromgren: saved (wrist)William Stromgren: goal (bat)Jake Middleton: saved (slap)Mikael Backlund: missed the netAydar Suniev: missed the net
  • 2Goals6% of attempts
  • 20Saved63% of attempts
  • 10Missed the net31% of attempts
San Jose Sharks1 G · 50 attempts
Will Smith: saved (wrist)Dmitry Orlov: saved (slap)Will Smith: saved (wrist)Tyler Toffoli: saved (wrist)Michael Misa: missed the netMason Marchment: missed the netIvar Stenberg: saved (wrist)Collin Graf: missed the netZack Ostapchuk: missed the netMichael Kesselring: missed the netMichael Kesselring: saved (wrist)Kiefer Sherwood: missed the netDarnell Nurse: missed the netMichael Kesselring: missed the netTyler Toffoli: missed the netNolan Allan: saved (slap)Kiefer Sherwood: saved (wrist)Will Smith: missed the netTyler Toffoli: saved (slap)Jacob Trouba: saved (wrist)Macklin Celebrini: saved (wrist)Michael Misa: saved (wrap-around)Collin Graf: missed the netIvar Stenberg: missed the netZack Ostapchuk: saved (wrist)Tyler Toffoli: saved (slap)Mason Marchment: missed the netTyler Toffoli: saved (wrist)Ivar Stenberg: saved (wrist)Macklin Celebrini: missed the netJacob Trouba: saved (wrist)Macklin Celebrini: missed the netWill Smith: missed the netMason Marchment: missed the netJacob Trouba: saved (slap)Jacob Trouba: saved (wrist)Sam Dickinson: missed the netTyler Toffoli: missed the netKiefer Sherwood: saved (wrist)Tyler Toffoli: saved (wrist)Ivar Stenberg: missed the netJacob Trouba: saved (slap)Mason Marchment: missed the netJacob Trouba: saved (wrist)Sam Dickinson: goal (wrist)Sam Dickinson: missed the netSam Dickinson: saved (backhand)Tyler Toffoli: saved (wrist)Macklin Celebrini: saved (wrist)Mason Marchment: missed the net
  • 1Goals2% of attempts
  • 26Saved52% of attempts
  • 23Missed the net46% of attempts

● goal (large) · ● saved · ✕ missed the net; blocked shots are not located. Each team attacks to the right.

🏒 Box Score

CGY skatersG goals · A assists · P points · SOG shots on goal · TOI time on ice
PlayerPosGAP+/-SOGHITBLKTOI
Adam Klapka R 112+222111:36
Jonathan Castagna C 022+102009:53
William Stromgren L 101+221208:34
Zach Whitecloud D 000+112222:25
Jake Middleton D 000+130021:00
Mikael Backlund C 000040220:47
Joel Farabee L 000010220:11
Kevin Bahl D 000-100119:26
Matt Coronato R 000000218:38
Zayne Parekh D 000000218:25
Yegor Sharangovich C 000020017:24
Simon Nemec D 000020117:24
Yan Kuznetsov D 000+124016:15
Matvei Gridin R 000-110015:53
Aydar Suniev L 000001214:53
Morgan Frost C 000+110014:28
Martin Pospisil C 000-108213:34
Ryan Strome C 000-110113:14
CGY goaliesG goals · A assists · P points · SOG shots on goal · TOI time on ice
PlayerDecSVSASV%GATOI
Dustin Wolf W 262796.3160:00
SJS skatersG goals · A assists · P points · SOG shots on goal · TOI time on ice
PlayerPosGAP+/-SOGHITBLKTOI
Sam Dickinson D 101+121218:55
Jacob Trouba D 011+162025:35
Michael Misa C 011010017:19
Macklin Celebrini C 000-122022:56
Darnell Nurse D 000001121:25
Mason Marchment L 000000021:10
Kiefer Sherwood L 000024019:22
Michael Kesselring D 000010118:41
Will Smith C 000-120018:23
Tyler Toffoli C 000-160117:00
Ivar Stenberg L 000020016:41
Collin Graf R 000002116:12
Dmitry Orlov D 000-210012:42
Nolan Allan D 000-212211:58
Filip Bystedt C 000000010:28
Zack Ostapchuk C 000015009:39
Adam Gaudette R 000001009:17
Barclay Goodrow C 000002008:04
SJS goaliesG goals · A assists · P points · SOG shots on goal · TOI time on ice
PlayerDecSVSASV%GATOI
Yaroslav Askarov L 202290.9258:13

🎟️ Player Props Results Consensus lines

PlayerPropLineActualResult
Michael Misa SJS Points0.51 Over
Assists0.51 Over
Shots on goal1.51 Under
Jacob Trouba SJS Points0.51 Over
Assists0.51 Over
Shots on goal1.56 Over
Sam Dickinson SJS Points0.51 Over
Assists0.50 Under
Ivar Stenberg SJS Points0.50 Under
Assists0.50 Under
Goals0.50 Under
Shots on goal1.52 Over
Mason Marchment SJS Points0.50 Under
Assists0.50 Under
Shots on goal1.50 Under
Matvei Gridin CGY Points0.50 Under
Assists0.50 Under
Goals0.50 Under
Shots on goal2.51 Under

The last pregame line, graded against the final box score.

⚔️ Season Series & What's Next

2026-27 season series CGY 1 – 0 SJS
Last 5 meetings · since 2025-26 CGY 4 – 1 SJS
Previous meetingsOpen the recap
After this game
Calgary Flames 7-8-0 W1 L10 7-3-0 Next game: @ SEA · Wed, Nov 4
San Jose Sharks 7-8-1 L2 L10 4-5-1 Next game: @ LAK · Wed, Nov 4

🔍 Key Suspects Results

6 of 13 graded picks hit. Pushes and voided picks are not counted.

CGY — Away
Yegor Sharangovich Yegor Sharangovich C Shots on Goal · FanDuel 1.5 UNDER MISS Actual 2
Simon Nemec Simon Nemec D Points · BetMGM 0.5 UNDER HIT Actual 0
Ryan Strome Ryan Strome C Shots on Goal · DraftKings 4+ MILESTONE MISS Actual 1
Matt Coronato Matt Coronato RW Assists · DraftKings 0.5 OVER MISS Actual 0
Mikael Backlund Mikael Backlund C Shots on Goal · BetMGM 2.5 UNDER MISS Actual 4
Zayne Parekh Zayne Parekh D Assists · BetMGM 0.5 UNDER HIT Actual 0
SJS — Home
Michael Misa Michael Misa C Points · DraftKings 0.5 OVER MISS Actual 0
Tyler Toffoli Tyler Toffoli C Shots on Goal · BetMGM 1.5 UNDER MISS Actual 6
Collin Graf Collin Graf RW Points · BetMGM 0.5 UNDER HIT Actual 0
Kiefer Sherwood Kiefer Sherwood LW Assists · DraftKings 0.5 OVER HIT Actual 1
Will Smith Will Smith C Points · BetMGM 0.5 UNDER HIT Actual 0
Dmitry Orlov Dmitry Orlov D Shots on Goal · BetMGM 1.5 UNDER HIT Actual 1
Darnell Nurse Darnell Nurse D Shots on Goal · DraftKings 5+ MILESTONE MISS Actual 0

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