NHL Final Intelligence
Edmonton Oilers 4, New York Rangers 1 — Recap
· Madison Square Garden · Recap published · View Preview
Game Recap
The Edmonton Oilers established an early lead and maintained control, defeating the New York Rangers 4-1. Evan Bouchard played a pivotal role for Edmonton with a goal and two assists, contributing to a strong offensive performance that the Rangers struggled to overcome. The Oilers' victory marked a significant shift from pregame analytics, as SportsFBI's model had favored the Rangers at 60%.
Edmonton wasted no time asserting dominance in the first period, netting two goals. Connor McDavid opened the scoring just 50 seconds into the game, assisted by Bouchard. Later in the period, Colton Dach extended Edmonton’s lead to 2-0 at 6:19, also with an assist from Bouchard. New York's Dylan Garand faced 24 shots, making 21 saves in his appearance, while Edmonton's Matt Tomkins stopped 28 of 29 shots.
The second period saw a continued offensive effort from the Oilers, with Bouchard scoring at 9:49, assisted by Leon Draisaitl and McDavid, pushing the lead to 3-0. The Rangers responded at 13:22, as Pavel Dorofeyev found the net, assisted by Scott Morrow and Mika Zibanejad, narrowing the deficit to 3-1. Both teams remained scoreless through the third period, with Edmonton successfully holding onto their three-goal advantage. Following the result, Edmonton improved to 10-2-2, while New York now stands at 7-6-1.
How the Prediction Fared
Before puck drop, DraftKings favored the New York Rangers (-130, 57% implied) over the Edmonton Oilers. The underdog won.
SportsFBI's model, locked before puck drop, favored the New York Rangers (60% confidence). It gave a 33% chance of a 3+ goal margin; the game was decided by 3 goals.
💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line
Standouts
Every skater's and goalie's line is in the box score below.
📊 Game Flow
- P1 0:50 Connor McDavid (Evan Bouchard) EDM · wrist shot · EDM 1, NYR 0
- P1 6:19 Colton Dach (Evan Bouchard) EDM · wrist shot · EDM 2, NYR 0
- P2 9:49 Evan Bouchard (Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid) EDM · Power play · slap shot · EDM 3, NYR 0
- P2 13:22 Pavel Dorofeyev (Scott Morrow, Mika Zibanejad) NYR · snap shot · EDM 3, NYR 1
- P3 19:20 Colton Dach (Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Shea) EDM · Empty net · wrist shot · EDM 4, NYR 1
Biggest Period
The Edmonton Oilers scored 2 goals in P1 — the biggest single period of the game.
📋 Team Stats
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 6 | 7 | 11 | 24 |
| NYR | 5 | 15 | 8 | 28 |
🎯 Shot Map
- 4Goals11% of attempts
- 20Saved57% of attempts
- 11Missed the net31% of attempts
- 1Goals2% of attempts
- 27Saved66% of attempts
- 13Missed the net32% of attempts
● goal (large) · ● saved · ✕ missed the net; blocked shots are not located. Each team attacks to the right.
🏒 Box Score
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Bouchard | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 25:42 |
| Colton Dach | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14:53 |
| Connor McDavid | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 23:22 |
| Leon Draisaitl | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:08 |
| Ryan Shea | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:08 |
| Mattias Ekholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 21:57 |
| Kasperi Kapanen | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 21:31 |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:13 |
| Connor Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19:48 |
| Vasily Podkolzin | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 16:15 |
| Shakir Mukhamadullin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:26 |
| Ty Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:41 |
| Alex Formenton | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12:33 |
| Mathieu Joseph | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12:04 |
| Jason Dickinson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11:55 |
| Owen Michaels | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10:11 |
| Trent Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 09:22 |
| Filip Hallander | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 08:38 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Tomkins | W | 27 | 28 | 96.4 | 1 | 59:13 |
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Dorofeyev | R | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17:35 |
| Mika Zibanejad | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20:08 |
| Scott Morrow | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:02 |
| Adam Fox | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23:44 |
| Vladislav Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:34 |
| J.T. Miller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 20:12 |
| Marcus Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20:06 |
| Braden Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 19:39 |
| Gabe Perreault | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 18:09 |
| Alexis Lafrenière | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 17:48 |
| Tye Kartye | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 17:24 |
| Will Cuylle | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16:28 |
| Alberts Smits | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 15:25 |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13:44 |
| Noah Laba | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:09 |
| Eeli Tolvanen | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11:44 |
| Taylor Raddysh | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 07:37 |
| Luke Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 07:33 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Garand | L | 20 | 23 | 87.0 | 3 | 57:50 |
🎟️ Player Props Results Consensus lines
| Player | Prop | Line | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Bouchard EDM | Points | 0.5 | 3 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 2 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 2 | Under | |
| Connor McDavid EDM | Points | 1.5 | 2 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 3.5 | 6 | Over | |
| Leon Draisaitl EDM | Points | 1.5 | 2 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 2 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Shots on goal | 3.5 | 3 | Under | |
| Mika Zibanejad NYR | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 5 | Over | |
| Pavel Dorofeyev NYR | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 1 | Under | |
| Ryan Shea EDM | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
The last pregame line, graded against the final box score.
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