NHL Final Intelligence
Minnesota Wild 5, Washington Capitals 1 — Recap
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Game Recap
The Minnesota Wild established an early lead in the first period and pulled away in the third to defeat the Washington Capitals 5-1. Quinn Hughes scored at 3:42 of the first period, assisted by Jonas Brodin and Nico Sturm, to put Minnesota on the board. Michael McCarron followed less than two minutes later at 5:27, with assists from Blake Coleman and Bobby Brink, extending the Wild's advantage to 2-0. Minnesota finished the game with 29 shots on goal to Washington's 27. Jesper Wallstedt made 23 saves on 24 shots for the Wild, while Logan Thompson stopped 24 of 26 for the Capitals. The SportsFBI model had leaned toward a Minnesota victory at 53%.
Washington responded late in the second period when Justin Sourdif scored at 19:54, assisted by Cole Hutson and Anthony Beauvillier, narrowing the Wild's lead to 2-1 as the game entered the final frame.
The Wild then sealed the win with three unanswered goals in the third period. Maxim Shabanov extended Minnesota's lead to 3-1 at 17:37, with an assist from Joel Eriksson Ek. Kirill Kaprizov added another goal at 19:02, assisted by Matt Boldy and Joel Eriksson Ek, before Danila Yurov scored at 19:35 to finalize the 5-1 score. Following the game, Minnesota improved its record to 9-3-3, while Washington's record fell to 8-4-0.
How the Prediction Fared
Before puck drop, DraftKings favored the Minnesota Wild (-122, 55% implied) over the Washington Capitals.
SportsFBI's model, locked before puck drop, favored the Minnesota Wild (53% confidence). It gave a 32% chance of a 3+ goal margin; the game was decided by 4 goals.
💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line
Standouts
Every skater's and goalie's line is in the box score below.
📊 Game Flow
- P1 3:42 Quinn Hughes (Jonas Brodin, Nico Sturm) MIN · snap shot · MIN 1, WSH 0
- P1 5:27 Michael McCarron (Blake Coleman, Bobby Brink) MIN · snap shot · MIN 2, WSH 0
- P2 19:54 Justin Sourdif (Cole Hutson, Anthony Beauvillier) WSH · tip-in shot · MIN 2, WSH 1
- P3 17:37 Maxim Shabanov (Joel Eriksson Ek) MIN · Power play · snap shot · MIN 3, WSH 1
- P3 19:02 Kirill Kaprizov (Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek) MIN · Empty net · snap shot · MIN 4, WSH 1
- P3 19:35 Danila Yurov (David Spacek, Bobby Brink) MIN · Power play · slap shot · MIN 5, WSH 1
Biggest Period
The Minnesota Wild scored 3 goals in P3 — the biggest single period of the game.
📋 Team Stats
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 10 | 7 | 11 | 28 |
| WSH | 5 | 11 | 11 | 27 |
🎯 Shot Map
- 5Goals12% of attempts
- 23Saved55% of attempts
- 14Missed the net33% of attempts
- 1Goals2% of attempts
- 26Saved57% of attempts
- 19Missed the net41% of attempts
● goal (large) · ● saved · ✕ missed the net; blocked shots are not located. Each team attacks to the right.
🏒 Box Score
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:33 |
| Bobby Brink | R | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 16:11 |
| Quinn Hughes | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 29:41 |
| Kirill Kaprizov | L | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:43 |
| Danila Yurov | R | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 |
| Maxim Shabanov | R | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 14:11 |
| Michael McCarron | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13:38 |
| Jonas Brodin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 23:55 |
| Matt Boldy | L | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 21:16 |
| Blake Coleman | L | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16:14 |
| David Spacek | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 |
| Nico Sturm | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 09:22 |
| Olli Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 19:10 |
| Zach Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18:25 |
| Ryan Hartman | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13:38 |
| Yakov Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 12:02 |
| Matt Kiersted | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11:44 |
| Tyler Pitlick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 09:59 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt | W | 26 | 27 | 96.3 | 1 | 60:00 |
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Sourdif | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 13:04 |
| Cole Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 19:58 |
| Anthony Beauvillier | R | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10:22 |
| Jakob Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 27:16 |
| Matt Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 21:07 |
| Martin Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 20:27 |
| Dylan Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18:28 |
| Alex Tuch | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 18:15 |
| Tom Wilson | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 18:01 |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:22 |
| Aliaksei Protas | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16:59 |
| Jack St. Ivany | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 |
| Boone Jenner | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14:59 |
| Jordan Kyrou | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 |
| Timothy Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13:47 |
| Alex Ovechkin | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13:08 |
| Ryan Leonard | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12:18 |
| Ilya Protas | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 08:44 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | L | 23 | 27 | 85.2 | 4 | 58:52 |
🎟️ Player Props Results Consensus lines
| Player | Prop | Line | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Eriksson Ek MIN | Points | 0.5 | 2 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 2 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 3 | Over | |
| Bobby Brink MIN | Points | 0.5 | 2 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 2 | Over | |
| Quinn Hughes MIN | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 3 | Over | |
| Cole Hutson WSH | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 1 | Under | |
| Kirill Kaprizov MIN | Points | 1.5 | 1 | Under |
| Assists | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 3.5 | 2 | Under | |
| Matt Boldy MIN | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Shots on goal | 3.5 | 3 | Under |
The last pregame line, graded against the final box score.
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