NHL Final Intelligence
Dallas Stars 6, Washington Capitals 5 — Recap
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Game Recap
The Dallas Stars established a significant lead early against the Washington Capitals. Joel Kiviranta opened the scoring at 8:56 of the first period, assisted by Radek Faksa and Thomas Harley, to give Dallas a 1-0 advantage. The Stars then exploded in the second period, with Jason Robertson scoring three consecutive goals. His first came just 23 seconds into the period, assisted by Wyatt Johnston and Roope Hintz, pushing the lead to 2-0. At this point, Washington's Charlie Lindgren, who stopped 10 of 12 shots faced in the game, exited, and Logan Thompson entered, stopping 7 of 11 shots faced. Robertson continued his scoring surge against Thompson with goals at 3:18, assisted by Arttu Hyry and Tyler Myers, and at 5:43, assisted by Thomas Harley and Roope Hintz, pushing Dallas to a 4-0 lead.
Washington began its comeback attempt in the second period. Jordan Kyrou scored for the Capitals at 11:00, assisted by Dylan Strome and Cole Hutson, to make it 4-1. Dallas quickly countered with Mikko Rantanen scoring at 14:50, assisted by Wyatt Johnston and Jamie Benn, pushing the Stars' lead to 5-1. The Capitals, however, continued to press, with Boone Jenner scoring at 16:58, assisted by Ryan Leonard and Martin Fehérváry. Jakob Chychrun added another goal at 19:30, assisted by Dylan Strome and Jordan Kyrou, bringing Washington within two goals at 5-3 by the end of the period.
The Capitals continued their rally into the third period, but Roope Hintz stemmed their momentum early, scoring at 1:23, assisted by Esa Lindell and Jason Robertson, to give Dallas a 6-3 lead. Washington, however, refused to concede. Justin Sourdif found the back of the net at 12:55, assisted by Anthony Beauvillier and Ilya Protas, bringing the score to 6-4. Ryan Leonard added another goal at 18:58, assisted by Jordan Kyrou and Jakob Chychrun, making it a one-goal game in the final minute. Dallas held on for the victory. Jake Oettinger of the Stars made 20 saves on 25 shots. Jason Robertson led all scorers with three goals and one assist for Dallas, while Roope Hintz contributed a goal and two assists. For Washington, Jordan Kyrou recorded a goal and two assists, and Jakob Chychrun added a goal and an assist. SportsFBI's model had leaned toward Dallas winning at 51%, a prediction that proved correct. Following the contest, Washington's record stood at 8-5-0, and Dallas's at 8-5-1.
How the Prediction Fared
Before puck drop, DraftKings favored the Washington Capitals (-118, 54% implied) over the Dallas Stars. The underdog won.
SportsFBI's model, locked before puck drop, favored the Dallas Stars (51% confidence). It gave a 28% chance of a 3+ goal margin; the game was decided by 1 goal.
💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line
Standouts
Every skater's and goalie's line is in the box score below.
📊 Game Flow
- P1 8:56 Joel Kiviranta (Radek Faksa, Thomas Harley) DAL · backhand shot · DAL 1, WSH 0
- P2 0:23 Jason Robertson (Wyatt Johnston, Roope Hintz) DAL · Power play · snap shot · DAL 2, WSH 0
- P2 3:18 Jason Robertson (Arttu Hyry, Tyler Myers) DAL · snap shot · DAL 3, WSH 0
- P2 5:43 Jason Robertson (Thomas Harley, Roope Hintz) DAL · snap shot · DAL 4, WSH 0
- P2 11:00 Jordan Kyrou (Dylan Strome, Cole Hutson) WSH · Power play · backhand shot · DAL 4, WSH 1
- P2 14:50 Mikko Rantanen (Wyatt Johnston, Jamie Benn) DAL · snap shot · DAL 5, WSH 1
- P2 16:58 Boone Jenner (Ryan Leonard, Martin Fehérváry) WSH · snap shot · DAL 5, WSH 2
- P2 19:30 Jakob Chychrun (Dylan Strome, Jordan Kyrou) WSH · Power play · snap shot · DAL 5, WSH 3
- P3 1:23 Roope Hintz (Esa Lindell, Jason Robertson) DAL · backhand shot · DAL 6, WSH 3
- P3 12:55 Justin Sourdif (Anthony Beauvillier, Ilya Protas) WSH · deflected shot · DAL 6, WSH 4
- P3 18:58 Ryan Leonard (Jordan Kyrou, Jakob Chychrun) WSH · Power play · snap shot · DAL 6, WSH 5
Biggest Period
The Dallas Stars scored 4 goals in P2 — the biggest single period of the game.
📋 Team Stats
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 7 | 11 | 4 | 22 |
| WSH | 6 | 7 | 12 | 25 |
🎯 Shot Map
- 6Goals17% of attempts
- 16Saved44% of attempts
- 14Missed the net39% of attempts
- 5Goals13% of attempts
- 20Saved53% of attempts
- 13Missed the net34% of attempts
● goal (large) · ● saved · ✕ missed the net; blocked shots are not located. Each team attacks to the right.
🏒 Box Score
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Robertson | L | 3 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 17:05 |
| Roope Hintz | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14:27 |
| Thomas Harley | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 24:43 |
| Wyatt Johnston | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:13 |
| Mikko Rantanen | R | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:51 |
| Joel Kiviranta | L | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13:51 |
| Esa Lindell | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 26:32 |
| Tyler Myers | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:19 |
| Arttu Hyry | R | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15:25 |
| Radek Faksa | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:38 |
| Jamie Benn | L | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12:03 |
| Nils Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18:40 |
| Sam Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:47 |
| Lian Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 15:57 |
| Justin Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 15:06 |
| Tyler Seguin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:21 |
| David Perron | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11:41 |
| Miro Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 09:41 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger | W | 20 | 25 | 80.0 | 5 | 60:00 |
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Kyrou | R | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:03 |
| Jakob Chychrun | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 26:50 |
| Ryan Leonard | R | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 12:56 |
| Dylan Strome | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:48 |
| Boone Jenner | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15:12 |
| Justin Sourdif | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 13:05 |
| Cole Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:04 |
| Martin Fehérváry | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 18:02 |
| Ilya Protas | L | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:04 |
| Anthony Beauvillier | R | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 12:02 |
| Matt Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 20:56 |
| Alex Tuch | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 18:34 |
| Alex Ovechkin | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17:26 |
| Tom Wilson | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 17:26 |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:18 |
| Aliaksei Protas | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15:22 |
| Jack St. Ivany | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12:39 |
| Timothy Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:38 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren | L | 9 | 11 | 81.8 | 2 | 31:49 |
| Logan Thompson | — | 7 | 11 | 63.6 | 4 | 25:17 |
🎟️ Player Props Results Consensus lines
| Player | Prop | Line | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Robertson DAL | Points | 0.5 | 4 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 3 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 5 | Over | |
| Jordan Kyrou WSH | Points | 0.5 | 3 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 2 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 1 | Under | |
| Roope Hintz DAL | Points | 0.5 | 3 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 2 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 2 | Over | |
| Thomas Harley DAL | Points | 0.5 | 2 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 2 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 1 | Under | |
| Dylan Strome WSH | Points | 0.5 | 2 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 2 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 3 | Over | |
| Jakob Chychrun WSH | Points | 0.5 | 2 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 5 | Over |
The last pregame line, graded against the final box score.
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