NHL Final Intelligence

VGK 9-5-2
3 – 2
FINAL
PIT 5-7-2

Vegas Golden Knights 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 — Recap

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📰Game Recap

Vegas Golden Knights forward Tomas Hertl scored with 35 seconds remaining in regulation, lifting his team to a 3-2 victory over the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Golden Knights secured their ninth win of the season, improving their record to 9-5-2, while the Penguins fell to 5-7-2.

Hertl initially put Vegas on the scoreboard at 16:36 of the first period, assisted by Mitch Marner and Jack Eichel, for the lone goal through the first two periods. The third period saw a flurry of action, beginning with Tommy Novak tying the game for Pittsburgh at 1:09, with assists from Kaedan Korczak and Spencer Stastney. Novak then assisted Rickard Rakell's goal at 9:58, with Kaedan Korczak also assisting, giving the Penguins a 2-1 lead.

Vegas quickly answered when Trevor Connelly, assisted by Jeremy Lauzon, evened the score at 11:19 of the third, setting the stage for Hertl's late-game heroics. Hertl's game-winning goal at 19:25 was assisted by Mark Stone and Jack Eichel, marking his second goal of the contest. Adin Hill made 23 saves on 25 shots for the Golden Knights, while Arturs Silovs stopped 21 of 24 shots for the Penguins in a game where SportsFBI's model leaned toward Pittsburgh at 61%.

#VegasGoldenKnights #PittsburghPenguins #TomasHertl #NHLRecap #GameWinner

How the Prediction Fared

⚡ Upset

Before puck drop, DraftKings favored the Pittsburgh Penguins (-118, 54% implied) over the Vegas Golden Knights. The underdog won.

⚡ Model Missed

SportsFBI's model, locked before puck drop, favored the Pittsburgh Penguins (61% confidence). It gave a 34% chance of a 3+ goal margin; the game was decided by 1 goal.

💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line

Puck line · PIT -1.5 VGK covered Won by 1
Total · 6.5 Under 5 combined
Moneyline VGK +102 · PIT -122 PIT favored
Line movementOpening line → close
Puck line (PIT) -1.5-1.5 No move
Total 6.56.5 No move
Moneyline (PIT) -110-122 -12

Standouts

Top Scorer · VGK
Tomas Hertl
2 G, 0 A, 2 PTS, 3 SOG · 15:11 TOI
Goals · PIT
Tommy Novak
1 G, 1 A, 2 PTS, 5 SOG · 18:38 TOI

Every skater's and goalie's line is in the box score below.

📊 Game Flow

VGK 1 largest lead P1 16:36 (VGK 1, PIT 0) · 2-0 run, P3 11:19–P3 19:25
PIT 1 largest lead P3 9:58 (VGK 1, PIT 2) · 2-0 run, P3 1:09–P3 9:58
Swings 2 lead changes Tied 2 times
Scoring summary
  • P1 16:36 Tomas Hertl (Mitch Marner, Jack Eichel) VGK · Power play · deflected shot · VGK 1, PIT 0
  • P3 1:09 Tommy Novak (Kaedan Korczak, Spencer Stastney) PIT · wrist shot · VGK 1, PIT 1
  • P3 9:58 Rickard Rakell (Tommy Novak, Kaedan Korczak) PIT · wrist shot · VGK 1, PIT 2
  • P3 11:19 Trevor Connelly (Jeremy Lauzon) VGK · wrist shot · VGK 2, PIT 2
  • P3 19:25 Tomas Hertl (Mark Stone, Jack Eichel) VGK · Power play · wrist shot · VGK 3, PIT 2

Linescore

123 T
VGK 102 3
PIT 002 2

Shots on goal: VGK 24, PIT 25

📋 Team Stats

VGKPIT
23Shots on goal25
50Shot attempts46
28Faceoff wins28
29Hits9
18Blocked shots8
2Power-play goals0
7Takeaways3
14Giveaways19
12Penalty minutes8
92.0%Save %87.0%
Shots on goal by period
TeamP1P2P3Total
VGK109423
PIT771125

🎯 Shot Map

Vegas Golden Knights3 G · 31 attempts
Mark Stone: saved (tip-in)Noah Hanifin: saved (wrist)Mitch Marner: saved (snap)William Karlsson: saved (wrist)Jack Eichel: saved (wrist)Nic Dowd: missed the netTomas Hertl: missed the netTomas Hertl: saved (wrist)Mitch Marner: saved (slap)Mitch Marner: saved (slap)Tomas Hertl: goal (deflected)Brett Howden: missed the netDylan Coghlan: saved (wrist)Trevor Connelly: saved (slap)Rasmus Andersson: saved (slap)Ivan Barbashev: saved (wrist)William Karlsson: saved (wrist)Dylan Coghlan: saved (slap)Dylan Coghlan: missed the netTrevor Connelly: saved (wrist)Mark Stone: saved (tip-in)Rasmus Andersson: saved (slap)Rasmus Andersson: saved (slap)Mitch Marner: missed the netJack Eichel: missed the netMark Stone: saved (backhand)Trevor Connelly: goal (wrist)Brett Howden: missed the netRasmus Andersson: missed the netTrevor Connelly: saved (wrist)Tomas Hertl: goal (wrist)
  • 3Goals10% of attempts
  • 20Saved65% of attempts
  • 8Missed the net26% of attempts
Pittsburgh Penguins2 G · 37 attempts
Nick Robertson: missed the netTommy Novak: saved (wrist)Tommy Novak: saved (deflected)Sidney Crosby: missed the netSidney Crosby: saved (tip-in)Rickard Rakell: missed the netErik Karlsson: saved (slap)Egor Chinakhov: missed the netEgor Chinakhov: saved (tip-in)Declan Carlile: missed the netHendrix Lapierre: saved (wrist)Egor Chinakhov: saved (tip-in)Blake Lizotte: saved (backhand)Nick Robertson: saved (wrist)Erik Karlsson: missed the netJustin Brazeau: saved (wrist)Rickard Rakell: saved (wrist)Nick Robertson: saved (snap)Spencer Stastney: saved (slap)Ville Koivunen: missed the netTommy Novak: saved (wrist)Rickard Rakell: missed the netNick Robertson: missed the netTommy Novak: goal (wrist)Kaedan Korczak: saved (wrist)Tommy Novak: missed the netKris Letang: saved (wrist)Kris Letang: saved (wrist)Tommy Novak: saved (wrist)Egor Chinakhov: saved (snap)Rickard Rakell: goal (wrist)Blake Lizotte: saved (backhand)Blake Lizotte: saved (wrist)Erik Karlsson: saved (slap)Nick Robertson: saved (wrist)Blake Lizotte: missed the netBen Kindel: missed the net
  • 2Goals5% of attempts
  • 23Saved62% of attempts
  • 12Missed the net32% of attempts

● goal (large) · ● saved · ✕ missed the net; blocked shots are not located. Each team attacks to the right.

🏒 Box Score

VGK skatersG goals · A assists · P points · SOG shots on goal · TOI time on ice
PlayerPosGAP+/-SOGHITBLKTOI
Tomas Hertl C 202+135015:11
Jack Eichel C 022-110121:16
Trevor Connelly L 101+141014:26
Mitch Marner R 011-130121:34
Mark Stone R 011-131120:40
Jeremy Lauzon D 011+106116:33
Brayden McNabb D 000004421:58
Shea Theodore D 000-100221:24
Noah Hanifin D 000-110220:31
Rasmus Andersson D 000+130319:36
William Karlsson C 000-121018:10
Brett Howden C 000-101314:31
Braeden Bowman R 000000012:58
Dylan Coghlan D 000-120012:09
Ivan Barbashev L 000-110011:16
Nic Dowd C 000004009:20
Raphael Lavoie C 000002008:37
Marc Gatcomb C 000004007:52
VGK goaliesG goals · A assists · P points · SOG shots on goal · TOI time on ice
PlayerDecSVSASV%GATOI
Adin Hill W 232592.0259:58
PIT skatersG goals · A assists · P points · SOG shots on goal · TOI time on ice
PlayerPosGAP+/-SOGHITBLKTOI
Tommy Novak C 112+250019:13
Kaedan Korczak D 022+210116:47
Rickard Rakell R 101+220121:14
Spencer Stastney D 011+210014:48
Erik Karlsson D 000020024:44
Sidney Crosby C 000+210020:30
Kris Letang D 000-121019:13
Samuel Girard D 000000118:54
Ville Koivunen R 000000018:50
Blake Lizotte C 000033217:06
Nick Robertson L 000030216:04
Declan Carlile D 000-100115:21
Ben Kindel C 000-101014:32
Connor Dewar C 000002014:08
Andrei Kuzmenko L 000-100012:41
Egor Chinakhov R 000-131011:19
Hendrix Lapierre C 000010010:55
Justin Brazeau R 000011008:14
PIT goaliesG goals · A assists · P points · SOG shots on goal · TOI time on ice
PlayerDecSVSASV%GATOI
Arturs Silovs L 202387.0359:36

🎟️ Player Props Results Consensus lines

PlayerPropLineActualResult
Jack Eichel VGK Points0.52 Over
Assists0.52 Over
Goals0.50 Under
Shots on goal2.51 Under
Tomas Hertl VGK Points0.52 Over
Assists0.50 Under
Goals0.52 Over
Shots on goal1.53 Over
Tommy Novak PIT Points0.52 Over
Assists0.51 Over
Goals0.51 Over
Shots on goal1.55 Over
Rickard Rakell PIT Points0.51 Over
Assists0.50 Under
Goals0.51 Over
Shots on goal2.52 Under
Mark Stone VGK Points0.51 Over
Assists0.51 Over
Goals0.50 Under
Shots on goal1.53 Over
Mitch Marner VGK Points0.51 Over
Assists0.51 Over
Goals0.50 Under
Shots on goal2.53 Over

The last pregame line, graded against the final box score.

⚔️ Season Series & What's Next

2026-27 season series VGK 2 – 0 PIT
Last 4 meetings · since 2025-26 VGK 3 – 1 PIT
Previous meetingsOpen the recap
After this game
Vegas Golden Knights 10-5-2 W1 L10 5-3-2 Next game: @ DET · Thu, Nov 5
Pittsburgh Penguins 5-8-2 L3 L10 3-6-1 Next game: vs BOS · Thu, Nov 5

🔍 Key Suspects Results

9 of 21 graded picks hit. Pushes and voided picks are not counted.

VGK — Away
Mitch Marner Mitch Marner RW Assists · BetMGM 0.5 OVER HIT Actual 1
Jack Eichel Jack Eichel C Shots on Goal · DraftKings 2.5 UNDER HIT Actual 1
Mark Stone Mark Stone RW Assists · DraftKings 0.5 UNDER MISS Actual 1
Brayden McNabb Brayden McNabb D Assists · DraftKings 0.5 OVER MISS Actual 0
Rasmus Andersson Rasmus Andersson D Shots on Goal · DraftKings 1.5 OVER HIT Actual 3
William Karlsson William Karlsson C Shots on Goal · DraftKings 1.5 UNDER MISS Actual 2
Tomas Hertl Tomas Hertl C Points · BetMGM 0.5 UNDER MISS Actual 2
Ivan Barbashev Ivan Barbashev LW Shots on Goal · BetMGM 1.5 UNDER HIT Actual 1
Shea Theodore Shea Theodore D Shots on Goal · BetMGM 1.5 OVER MISS Actual 0
Brett Howden Brett Howden C Shots on Goal · DraftKings 3+ MILESTONE MISS Actual 0
PIT — Home
Sidney Crosby Sidney Crosby C Points · DraftKings 0.5 UNDER HIT Actual 0
Ben Kindel Ben Kindel C Points · BetMGM 0.5 UNDER HIT Actual 0
Tommy Novak Tommy Novak C Shots on Goal · BetMGM 1.5 UNDER MISS Actual 5
Egor Chinakhov Egor Chinakhov RW Shots on Goal · BetMGM 2.5 UNDER MISS Actual 3
Andrei Kuzmenko Andrei Kuzmenko LW Points · DraftKings 0.5 UNDER HIT Actual 0
Connor Dewar Connor Dewar C Shots on Goal · DraftKings 3+ MILESTONE MISS Actual 0
Erik Karlsson Erik Karlsson D Points · BetMGM 0.5 OVER MISS Actual 0
Nick Robertson Nick Robertson LW Anytime Goal · Fanatics 1+ MILESTONE MISS Actual 0
Rickard Rakell Rickard Rakell RW Points · DraftKings 0.5 UNDER MISS Actual 1
Ville Koivunen Ville Koivunen RW Points · DraftKings 0.5 UNDER HIT Actual 0
Kris Letang Kris Letang D Shots on Goal · DraftKings 1.5 OVER HIT Actual 2

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