NHL Final Intelligence

UTA 9-6-0
3 – 2
FINAL
TOR 8-6-2

Utah Mammoth 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 — Recap

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📰Game Recap

Utah Mammoth secured a 3-2 victory over the Toronto Maple Leafs, decided by a Nick Schmaltz goal in the final minutes of the third period. The Mammoth maintained offensive pressure throughout the contest, outshooting Toronto 36-29. Clayton Keller led Utah's attack with three assists, contributing to a strategic game that saw both teams exchange leads. This result aligned with SportsFBI's pregame model, which had leaned towards Utah at 52%.

The Mammoth struck first late in the opening period, with Dylan Guenther scoring at 19:47 off assists from Mikhail Sergachev and Keller. Toronto responded in the second period as Jack Roslovic tied the game 1-1 at 10:20, assisted by Auston Matthews. However, Utah quickly regained its advantage just over three minutes later when Andrew Peeke scored at 13:42, with Keller and Anders Lee collecting the assists, giving the Mammoth a 2-1 lead heading into the final frame.

Toronto battled back once more in the third period, as Roslovic netted his second goal of the night at 9:05, assisted by Matthews and Morgan Rielly, to level the score at 2-2. The decisive moment came at 13:12 when Schmaltz, with assists from Keller and Sergachev, scored the game-winner for Utah. In net, Sebastian Cossa made 26 saves on 28 shots for the Mammoth, while Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 33 of 36 shots for the Maple Leafs. The win improves Utah's record to 9-6-0, while Toronto falls to 8-6-2.

#UtahMammoth #TorontoMapleLeafs #NHLRecap #KellerThreeAssists #SchmaltzGameWinner

How the Prediction Fared

✓ Favorite Won

Before puck drop, DraftKings favored the Utah Mammoth (-148, 60% implied) over the Toronto Maple Leafs.

✓ Model Hit

SportsFBI's model, locked before puck drop, favored the Utah Mammoth (52% confidence). It gave a 32% chance of a 3+ goal margin; the game was decided by 1 goal.

💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line

Puck line · UTA -1.5 TOR covered Won by 1
Total · 6.5 Under 5 combined
Moneyline UTA -150 · TOR +125 UTA favored
Line movementOpening line → close
Puck line (TOR) +1.5+1.5 No move
Total 6.56.5 No move
Moneyline (TOR) +115+125 +10

Standouts

Top Scorer · UTA
Clayton Keller
0 G, 3 A, 3 PTS, 5 SOG · 18:47 TOI
Goals · TOR
Jack Roslovic
2 G, 0 A, 2 PTS, 4 SOG · 17:44 TOI
Season highs
Darren Raddysh · Season-high 6 shots on goalClayton Keller · Season-high 3 pointsJack Roslovic · Season-high 2 goals

Every skater's and goalie's line is in the box score below.

📊 Game Flow

UTA 1 largest lead P1 19:47 (UTA 1, TOR 0)
TOR 0 largest lead Never led
Swings 0 lead changes Tied 2 times
Scoring summary
  • P1 19:47 Dylan Guenther (Mikhail Sergachev, Clayton Keller) UTA · Power play · snap shot · UTA 1, TOR 0
  • P2 10:20 Jack Roslovic (Auston Matthews) TOR · wrist shot · UTA 1, TOR 1
  • P2 13:42 Andrew Peeke (Clayton Keller, Anders Lee) UTA · wrist shot · UTA 2, TOR 1
  • P3 9:05 Jack Roslovic (Auston Matthews, Morgan Rielly) TOR · backhand shot · UTA 2, TOR 2
  • P3 13:12 Nick Schmaltz (Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev) UTA · Power play · backhand shot · UTA 3, TOR 2

Linescore

123 T
UTA 111 3
TOR 011 2

Shots on goal: UTA 36, TOR 28

📋 Team Stats

UTATOR
36Shots on goal29
73Shot attempts60
23Faceoff wins29
22Hits23
18Blocked shots14
2Power-play goals0
0Takeaways7
27Giveaways14
4Penalty minutes6
93.1%Save %91.7%
Shots on goal by period
TeamP1P2P3Total
UTA1416636
TOR981229

🎯 Shot Map

Utah Mammoth3 G · 54 attempts
Lawson Crouse: missed the netJack McBain: saved (snap)Kevin Stenlund: saved (wrist)Andrew Peeke: missed the netLiam O'Brien: missed the netAndrew Peeke: saved (wrist)Nate Schmidt: saved (wrist)Nate Schmidt: missed the netVincent Trocheck: missed the netLiam O'Brien: saved (wrist)Dmitri Simashev: saved (wrist)MacKenzie Weegar: saved (backhand)Barrett Hayton: saved (wrist)Lawson Crouse: saved (wrist)Anders Lee: saved (wrist)Dylan Guenther: missed the netLogan Cooley: saved (wrist)Clayton Keller: saved (wrist)MacKenzie Weegar: saved (slap)Dylan Guenther: missed the netDylan Guenther: goal (snap)Logan Cooley: saved (backhand)Anders Lee: saved (wrist)Anders Lee: missed the netLogan Cooley: saved (wrist)Nick DeSimone: saved (wrist)Michael Carcone: saved (tip-in)Anders Lee: saved (wrist)Lawson Crouse: missed the netMacKenzie Weegar: missed the netNick Schmaltz: saved (wrist)Barrett Hayton: missed the netMacKenzie Weegar: saved (slap)Nate Schmidt: saved (slap)Lawson Crouse: saved (wrist)Mikhail Sergachev: saved (slap)Clayton Keller: saved (wrist)Andrew Peeke: goal (wrist)Nate Schmidt: missed the netNick DeSimone: saved (wrist)Dylan Guenther: missed the netNick Schmaltz: saved (tip-in)Clayton Keller: saved (slap)Lawson Crouse: saved (slap)Nate Schmidt: saved (wrist)Lawson Crouse: missed the netAnders Lee: missed the netAnders Lee: missed the netDylan Guenther: saved (slap)Mikhail Sergachev: missed the netMikhail Sergachev: missed the netClayton Keller: saved (wrist)Clayton Keller: saved (wrist)Nick Schmaltz: goal (backhand)
  • 3Goals6% of attempts
  • 33Saved61% of attempts
  • 18Missed the net33% of attempts
Toronto Maple Leafs2 G · 43 attempts
Easton Cowan: saved (wrist)Zack MacEwen: saved (wrist)Gavin McKenna: saved (wrist)Jack Roslovic: saved (wrist)Darren Raddysh: saved (wrist)Darren Raddysh: saved (wrist)Auston Matthews: saved (wrist)Easton Cowan: saved (wrist)Morgan Rielly: saved (wrist)William Nylander: saved (backhand)Darren Raddysh: missed the netJack Roslovic: saved (wrist)Jack Roslovic: goal (wrist)Darren Raddysh: saved (wrist)Auston Matthews: saved (tip-in)Auston Matthews: saved (backhand)Oliver Ekman-Larsson: saved (wrist)Auston Matthews: saved (wrist)Jack Roslovic: missed the netColton Sissons: saved (wrist)Nick Paul: missed the netChris Tanev: saved (slap)William Nylander: missed the netMorgan Rielly: missed the netOliver Ekman-Larsson: saved (wrist)Darren Raddysh: missed the netChris Tanev: missed the netWilliam Nylander: saved (wrist)Oliver Ekman-Larsson: saved (wrist)Zack MacEwen: missed the netZack MacEwen: missed the netDarren Raddysh: saved (snap)Auston Matthews: saved (tip-in)Gavin McKenna: saved (wrist)Auston Matthews: missed the netJack Roslovic: goal (backhand)Darren Raddysh: missed the netWilliam Nylander: missed the netDarren Raddysh: saved (wrist)Easton Cowan: missed the netDarren Raddysh: saved (wrist)Easton Cowan: missed the netWilliam Nylander: saved (wrist)
  • 2Goals5% of attempts
  • 27Saved63% of attempts
  • 14Missed the net33% of attempts

● goal (large) · ● saved · ✕ missed the net; blocked shots are not located. Each team attacks to the right.

🏒 Box Score

UTA skatersG goals · A assists · P points · SOG shots on goal · TOI time on ice
PlayerPosGAP+/-SOGHITBLKTOI
Clayton Keller R 033+150018:47
Mikhail Sergachev D 022010125:52
Andrew Peeke D 101-120019:41
Dylan Guenther R 101-121016:55
Nick Schmaltz C 101-130216:53
Anders Lee L 011+130014:46
MacKenzie Weegar D 000031224:06
Logan Cooley C 000036318:39
Vincent Trocheck C 000-102118:36
Nate Schmidt D 000031117:55
Lawson Crouse L 000-133417:07
Barrett Hayton C 000+110116:22
Nick DeSimone D 000-120014:10
Dmitri Simashev D 000011014:01
Jack McBain C 000-112113:58
Kevin Stenlund C 000011112:28
Michael Carcone L 000-112008:31
Liam O'Brien C 000012107:15
UTA goaliesG goals · A assists · P points · SOG shots on goal · TOI time on ice
PlayerDecSVSASV%GATOI
Sebastian Cossa W 272993.1259:58
TOR skatersG goals · A assists · P points · SOG shots on goal · TOI time on ice
PlayerPosGAP+/-SOGHITBLKTOI
Jack Roslovic C 202+241018:19
Auston Matthews C 022+250120:01
Morgan Rielly D 011+210118:18
Darren Raddysh D 000-160122:48
Jake McCabe D 000-101222:08
William Nylander R 000-130221:24
Chris Tanev D 000010121:06
Easton Cowan R 000+222019:31
Oliver Ekman-Larsson D 000031017:24
Gavin McKenna L 000020015:53
Nick Paul L 000001114:57
Teddy Blueger C 000000014:32
Troy Stecher D 000+200114:24
Colton Sissons C 000-112113:55
Brandon Duhaime L 000002012:10
Dakota Joshua C 000-105011:47
Zack MacEwen R 000015110:30
Vinni Lettieri C 000003208:04
TOR goaliesG goals · A assists · P points · SOG shots on goal · TOI time on ice
PlayerDecSVSASV%GATOI
Sergei Bobrovsky L 333691.7358:30

🎟️ Player Props Results Consensus lines

PlayerPropLineActualResult
Clayton Keller UTA Points0.53 Over
Assists0.53 Over
Goals0.50 Under
Shots on goal2.55 Over
Mikhail Sergachev UTA Points0.52 Over
Assists0.52 Over
Shots on goal1.51 Under
Jack Roslovic TOR Points0.52 Over
Assists0.50 Under
Goals0.52 Over
Shots on goal2.54 Over
Auston Matthews TOR Points0.52 Over
Assists0.52 Over
Goals0.50 Under
Shots on goal3.55 Over
Morgan Rielly TOR Points0.51 Over
Assists0.51 Over
Nick Schmaltz UTA Points0.51 Over
Assists0.50 Under
Goals0.51 Over
Shots on goal2.53 Over

The last pregame line, graded against the final box score.

⚔️ Season Series & What's Next

2026-27 season series UTA 2 – 0 TOR
Last 4 meetings · since 2025-26 UTA 3 – 1 TOR
Previous meetingsOpen the recap
After this game
Utah Mammoth 10-6-0 W1 L10 6-4-0 Next game: @ MTL · Thu, Nov 5
Toronto Maple Leafs 8-7-2 L1 L10 5-4-1 Next game: vs MTL · Sat, Nov 7

🔍 Key Suspects Results

5 of 15 graded picks hit. Pushes and voided picks are not counted.

UTA — Away
Mikhail Sergachev Mikhail Sergachev D Points · BetMGM 0.5 OVER HIT Actual 2
Vincent Trocheck Vincent Trocheck C Shots on Goal · BetMGM 1.5 OVER MISS Actual 0
Lawson Crouse Lawson Crouse LW Shots on Goal · DraftKings 1.5 UNDER MISS Actual 3
Clayton Keller Clayton Keller RW Assists · BetMGM 0.5 OVER HIT Actual 3
Barrett Hayton Barrett Hayton C Shots on Goal · BetMGM 1.5 OVER MISS Actual 1
Dylan Guenther Dylan Guenther RW Points · DraftKings 0.5 UNDER MISS Actual 1
Anders Lee Anders Lee LW Points · BetMGM 0.5 UNDER MISS Actual 1
Michael Carcone Michael Carcone LW Points · DraftKings 0.5 UNDER HIT Actual 0
TOR — Home
Easton Cowan Easton Cowan RW Points · DraftKings 0.5 OVER MISS Actual 0
Morgan Rielly Morgan Rielly D Assists · DraftKings 0.5 OVER HIT Actual 1
William Nylander William Nylander RW Goals · FanDuel 0.5 OVER MISS Actual 0
Jack Roslovic Jack Roslovic C Assists · DraftKings 0.5 OVER MISS Actual 0
Auston Matthews Auston Matthews C Goals · FanDuel 0.5 OVER MISS Actual 0
Nick Paul Nick Paul LW Shots on Goal · BetMGM 1.5 UNDER HIT Actual 0
Gavin McKenna Gavin McKenna LW Assists · DraftKings 0.5 OVER MISS Actual 0

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