NHL Final Intelligence
Minnesota Wild 4, Philadelphia Flyers 2 — Recap
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Game Recap
The Minnesota Wild defeated the Philadelphia Flyers 4-2, maintaining control throughout the game despite a late push from Philadelphia. The Wild's early offensive burst established a lead that proved insurmountable, aligning with SportsFBI's pregame model, which indicated a 66% probability of a Minnesota victory.
Minnesota quickly took command in the first period. Matt Boldy initiated the scoring at 4:06, assisted by Quinn Hughes and Jonas Brodin. Just 31 seconds later, Michael McCarron, with assists from Blake Coleman and Bobby Brink, doubled the lead to 2-0. Joel Eriksson Ek further extended Minnesota's advantage to 3-0 early in the second period, scoring 42 seconds in with an assist from Boldy. Philadelphia cut into the lead at 14:24 of the second period when Tyson Foerster scored, assisted by Jamie Drysdale and Matvei Michkov, bringing the score to 3-1.
The Flyers continued to press in the third period, with Denver Barkey scoring at 1:48, assisted by Porter Martone and Trevor Zegras, narrowing the Wild's lead to 3-2. However, Danila Yurov secured Minnesota's win with a late goal at 18:36, assisted by Kirill Kaprizov and Olli Maatta, making the final score 4-2. Minnesota goaltender Jesper Wallstedt stopped 23 of 25 shots, while Philadelphia's Dan Vladar made 18 saves on 21 shots. Despite outshooting Minnesota 25-22, the Flyers were unable to complete the comeback. Minnesota's record improved to 10-3-3, while Philadelphia's fell to 4-8-4.
How the Prediction Fared
Before puck drop, DraftKings favored the Minnesota Wild (-185, 65% implied) over the Philadelphia Flyers.
SportsFBI's model, locked before puck drop, favored the Minnesota Wild (66% confidence). It gave a 31% chance of a 3+ goal margin; the game was decided by 2 goals.
💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line
Standouts
Every skater's and goalie's line is in the box score below.
📊 Game Flow
- P1 4:06 Matt Boldy (Quinn Hughes, Jonas Brodin) MIN · snap shot · MIN 1, PHI 0
- P1 4:37 Michael McCarron (Blake Coleman, Bobby Brink) MIN · wrist shot · MIN 2, PHI 0
- P2 0:42 Joel Eriksson Ek (Matt Boldy) MIN · wrist shot · MIN 3, PHI 0
- P2 14:24 Tyson Foerster (Jamie Drysdale, Matvei Michkov) PHI · tip-in shot · MIN 3, PHI 1
- P3 1:48 Denver Barkey (Porter Martone, Trevor Zegras) PHI · Power play · wrist shot · MIN 3, PHI 2
- P3 18:36 Danila Yurov (Kirill Kaprizov, Olli Maatta) MIN · Empty net · wrist shot · MIN 4, PHI 2
Biggest Period
The Minnesota Wild scored 2 goals in P1 — the biggest single period of the game.
📋 Team Stats
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 8 | 10 | 4 | 22 |
| PHI | 7 | 7 | 11 | 25 |
🎯 Shot Map
- 4Goals12% of attempts
- 18Saved53% of attempts
- 12Missed the net35% of attempts
- 2Goals4% of attempts
- 23Saved49% of attempts
- 22Missed the net47% of attempts
● goal (large) · ● saved · ✕ missed the net; blocked shots are not located. Each team attacks to the right.
🏒 Box Score
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Boldy | L | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20:15 |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 19:17 |
| Danila Yurov | R | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:36 |
| Michael McCarron | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 13:44 |
| Quinn Hughes | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 29:47 |
| Jonas Brodin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 23:31 |
| Kirill Kaprizov | L | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:29 |
| Olli Maatta | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 18:04 |
| Blake Coleman | L | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 15:04 |
| Bobby Brink | R | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14:13 |
| Maxim Shabanov | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18:07 |
| Zach Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:54 |
| Yakov Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 14:44 |
| David Spacek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:38 |
| Matt Kiersted | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12:05 |
| Ryan Hartman | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11:32 |
| Nico Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 10:25 |
| Tyler Pitlick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 06:37 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt | W | 23 | 25 | 92.0 | 2 | 60:00 |
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Foerster | R | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 |
| Denver Barkey | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 13:28 |
| Jamie Drysdale | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 26:50 |
| Trevor Zegras | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20:01 |
| Matvei Michkov | R | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16:20 |
| Porter Martone | R | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:10 |
| Travis Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 25:02 |
| Travis Konecny | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:56 |
| Christian Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:22 |
| Cam York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18:29 |
| Oliver Bonk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15:55 |
| Nick Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 15:31 |
| Sean Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:01 |
| Simon Benoit | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12:48 |
| Noah Cates | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12:28 |
| Owen Tippett | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12:20 |
| Cole Knuble | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11:58 |
| Noel Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10:50 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar | L | 18 | 21 | 85.7 | 3 | 58:33 |
🎟️ Player Props Results Consensus lines
| Player | Prop | Line | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Boldy MIN | Points | 0.5 | 2 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 3.5 | 4 | Over | |
| Porter Martone PHI | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 1 | Under | |
| Jamie Drysdale PHI | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Quinn Hughes MIN | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 1 | Under | |
| Trevor Zegras PHI | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Blake Coleman MIN | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 1 | Under |
The last pregame line, graded against the final box score.
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