NHL Final Intelligence
New York Rangers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5 — Recap
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Game Recap
Toronto overcame a New York comeback and a late tying goal to secure a narrow victory, outshooting the Rangers 35-25 in a back-and-forth contest. The Maple Leafs opened the scoring early in the first period when Easton Cowan found the net with assists from Jake McCabe and Jack Roslovic. New York quickly responded as Mika Zibanejad, assisted by Vladislav Gavrikov and Adam Fox, tied the game. Toronto regained the lead before the end of the period with Teddy Blueger's goal, assisted by Brandon Duhaime and Zack MacEwen, establishing an early trend of Toronto responding to New York's offense. Adam Fox’s first of four assists on the night contributed to the Rangers' scoring efforts.
The second period saw a flurry of five goals and multiple lead changes. Oliver Bjorkstrand, assisted by Justin Dowling and Adam Fox, once again brought the Rangers level. New York then took its first lead of the game with Tye Kartye's goal, with assists from Adam Fox and Pavel Dorofeyev, giving Fox his third helper. Brandon Duhaime, who finished with a goal and two assists, immediately tied the game for Toronto with a goal assisted by Zack MacEwen and Teddy Blueger. The Maple Leafs seized the momentum late in the period when Kirill Marchenko scored, assisted by Gavin McKenna and William Nylander, to give Toronto a 4-3 lead heading into the final frame.
The Rangers refused to yield, and Alexis Lafrenière tied the game at 4-4 in the third period, with Adam Fox collecting his fourth assist of the night and Mika Zibanejad his second point. However, Toronto responded yet again in the final minute, as Troy Stecher scored the decisive goal, assisted by Morgan Rielly and Brandon Duhaime, to secure the win. Dylan Garand made 30 saves on 35 shots for the Rangers, while Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 21 of 25 shots for Toronto. SportsFBI's pregame model, which had favored New York at 57%, missed its projection for the outcome. The win moved Toronto's record to 5-4-2, while New York's record now stands at 7-3-1.
How the Prediction Fared
Before puck drop, DraftKings favored the New York Rangers (-112, 53% implied) over the Toronto Maple Leafs. The underdog won.
SportsFBI's model, locked before puck drop, favored the New York Rangers (57% confidence). It gave a 33% chance of a 3+ goal margin; the game was decided by 1 goal.
💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line
Standouts
Every skater's and goalie's line is in the box score below.
📊 Game Flow
- P1 1:36 Easton Cowan (Jake McCabe, Jack Roslovic) TOR · wrist shot · NYR 0, TOR 1
- P1 5:39 Mika Zibanejad (Vladislav Gavrikov, Adam Fox) NYR · tip-in shot · NYR 1, TOR 1
- P1 10:01 Teddy Blueger (Brandon Duhaime, Zack MacEwen) TOR · tip-in shot · NYR 1, TOR 2
- P2 2:37 Oliver Bjorkstrand (Justin Dowling, Adam Fox) NYR · wrist shot · NYR 2, TOR 2
- P2 6:30 Tye Kartye (Adam Fox, Pavel Dorofeyev) NYR · wrist shot · NYR 3, TOR 2
- P2 8:00 Brandon Duhaime (Zack MacEwen, Teddy Blueger) TOR · wrist shot · NYR 3, TOR 3
- P2 19:09 Kirill Marchenko (Gavin McKenna, William Nylander) TOR · Power play · poke shot · NYR 3, TOR 4
- P3 14:25 Alexis Lafrenière (Adam Fox, Mika Zibanejad) NYR · wrist shot · NYR 4, TOR 4
- P3 19:32 Troy Stecher (Morgan Rielly, Brandon Duhaime) TOR · wrist shot · NYR 4, TOR 5
📋 Team Stats
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 7 | 9 | 9 | 25 |
| TOR | 8 | 16 | 11 | 35 |
🎯 Shot Map
- 4Goals10% of attempts
- 21Saved51% of attempts
- 16Missed the net39% of attempts
- 5Goals9% of attempts
- 30Saved55% of attempts
- 20Missed the net36% of attempts
● goal (large) · ● saved · ✕ missed the net; blocked shots are not located. Each team attacks to the right.
🏒 Box Score
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Fox | D | 0 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23:59 |
| Mika Zibanejad | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 21:36 |
| Alexis Lafrenière | L | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19:03 |
| Tye Kartye | L | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 16:26 |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | R | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10:23 |
| Vladislav Gavrikov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 25:02 |
| Pavel Dorofeyev | R | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:33 |
| Justin Dowling | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 06:56 |
| Marcus Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 21:16 |
| Gabe Perreault | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 19:23 |
| Sean Durzi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 18:01 |
| Braden Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 17:13 |
| J.T. Miller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:01 |
| Will Cuylle | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16:08 |
| Noah Laba | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 15:04 |
| Alberts Smits | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12:27 |
| Eeli Tolvanen | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:12 |
| Taylor Raddysh | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 08:32 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Garand | L | 30 | 35 | 85.7 | 5 | 59:32 |
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Duhaime | L | 1 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 14:14 |
| Teddy Blueger | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15:18 |
| Zack MacEwen | R | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 07:06 |
| Troy Stecher | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:17 |
| Kirill Marchenko | R | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 18:23 |
| Easton Cowan | R | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16:48 |
| Jake McCabe | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 21:03 |
| Morgan Rielly | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 20:58 |
| William Nylander | R | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:12 |
| Jack Roslovic | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15:58 |
| Gavin McKenna | L | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:44 |
| Darren Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:17 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19:22 |
| Auston Matthews | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:16 |
| Nick Paul | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 17:27 |
| Colton Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15:34 |
| Nick Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:27 |
| Vinni Lettieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 10:08 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky | W | 21 | 25 | 84.0 | 4 | 59:28 |
🎟️ Player Props Results Consensus lines
| Player | Prop | Line | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Fox NYR | Points | 0.5 | 4 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 4 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Mika Zibanejad NYR | Points | 0.5 | 2 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 3 | Over | |
| Jack Roslovic TOR | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 3 | Over | |
| Gavin McKenna TOR | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 1 | Under | |
| Pavel Dorofeyev NYR | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 2 | Under | |
| Vladislav Gavrikov NYR | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 3 | Over |
The last pregame line, graded against the final box score.
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