NHL Final Intelligence
San Jose Sharks 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 — Recap
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Game Recap
Toronto overcame an early deficit to defeat San Jose, sparked by a dominant performance from Auston Matthews. Matthews factored in all three Maple Leafs goals, including the equalizer, as Toronto secured a victory that SportsFBI's model leaned toward pregame.
San Jose initially took the lead in the first period when Mason Marchment scored at 13:54, assisted by Tyler Toffoli. The Sharks held that advantage until late in the second period, when Matthews leveled the score for Toronto at 19:48, with Kirill Marchenko and Darren Raddysh assisting.
Toronto then took control in the third period. Gavin McKenna put the Maple Leafs ahead at 4:56, assisted by Matthews and William Nylander. Nick Paul sealed the win for Toronto at 19:20, with Matthews and Colton Sissons earning assists. Sergei Bobrovsky made 30 saves on 31 shots for Toronto, earning the win, while Yaroslav Askarov stopped 28 of 30 shots for San Jose in the losing effort. Following the game, Toronto's record stands at 3-4-2, while San Jose holds a 4-3-1 record.
How the Prediction Fared
Before puck drop, DraftKings favored the Toronto Maple Leafs (-148, 60% implied) over the San Jose Sharks.
SportsFBI's model, locked before puck drop, favored the Toronto Maple Leafs (55% confidence). It gave a 32% chance of a 3+ goal margin; the game was decided by 2 goals.
💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line
Standouts
Every skater's and goalie's line is in the box score below.
📊 Game Flow
- P1 13:54 Mason Marchment (Tyler Toffoli) SJS · backhand shot · SJS 1, TOR 0
- P2 19:48 Auston Matthews (Kirill Marchenko, Darren Raddysh) TOR · Power play · wrist shot · SJS 1, TOR 1
- P3 4:56 Gavin McKenna (Auston Matthews, William Nylander) TOR · Power play · wrist shot · SJS 1, TOR 2
- P3 19:20 Nick Paul (Auston Matthews, Colton Sissons) TOR · Empty net · wrist shot · SJS 1, TOR 3
Biggest Period
The Toronto Maple Leafs scored 2 goals in P3 — the biggest single period of the game.
📋 Team Stats
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 9 | 13 | 9 | 31 |
| TOR | 9 | 10 | 13 | 32 |
🎯 Shot Map
- 1Goals2% of attempts
- 30Saved64% of attempts
- 16Missed the net34% of attempts
- 3Goals5% of attempts
- 29Saved52% of attempts
- 24Missed the net43% of attempts
● goal (large) · ● saved · ✕ missed the net; blocked shots are not located. Each team attacks to the right.
🏒 Box Score
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Marchment | L | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15:52 |
| Tyler Toffoli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:36 |
| Darnell Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 23:53 |
| Will Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 22:03 |
| Macklin Celebrini | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21:59 |
| Michael Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 21:23 |
| Jacob Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:20 |
| Sam Dickinson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18:02 |
| Alexander Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16:29 |
| Igor Chernyshov | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15:59 |
| Dmitry Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 15:21 |
| Michael Misa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:30 |
| Ivar Stenberg | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:27 |
| Collin Graf | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 14:21 |
| Kiefer Sherwood | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 13:35 |
| Luca Cagnoni | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12:52 |
| Barclay Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 08:48 |
| Zack Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 08:05 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov | L | 29 | 31 | 93.5 | 2 | 58:59 |
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 20:57 |
| Nick Paul | L | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 18:52 |
| Gavin McKenna | L | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:30 |
| Darren Raddysh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 26:39 |
| William Nylander | R | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:47 |
| Kirill Marchenko | R | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 17:21 |
| Colton Sissons | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16:15 |
| Jake McCabe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 23:01 |
| Morgan Rielly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 21:05 |
| Troy Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20:13 |
| Easton Cowan | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:19 |
| Jack Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15:13 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14:42 |
| Teddy Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11:52 |
| Brandon Duhaime | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10:42 |
| Nick Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10:16 |
| Vinni Lettieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 09:20 |
| Zack MacEwen | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 05:56 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky | W | 30 | 31 | 96.8 | 1 | 60:00 |
🎟️ Player Props Results Consensus lines
| Player | Prop | Line | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews TOR | Points | 1.5 | 3 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 2 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 3.5 | 3 | Under | |
| Mason Marchment SJS | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 4 | Over | |
| Gavin McKenna TOR | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 1 | Under | |
| Tyler Toffoli SJS | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 2 | Over | |
| Darren Raddysh TOR | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 5 | Over | |
| Kirill Marchenko TOR | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 2 | Under |
The last pregame line, graded against the final box score.
⚔️ Season Series & What's Next
More NHL Results — Monday, October 19, 2026
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