NHL Final Intelligence

COL 5-4-1
2 – 3
FINAL
PHI 2-6-3

Colorado Avalanche 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3 — Recap

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📰Game Recap

The Philadelphia Flyers defeated the Colorado Avalanche 3-2, upsetting pregame analytics that had favored Colorado at 76%. Matvei Michkov scored twice for the Flyers, while Trevor Zegras contributed three assists. Michkov opened the scoring at 7:41 of the first period, assisted by Denver Barkey and Zegras, giving Philadelphia a 1-0 lead.

Michkov extended Philadelphia's advantage in the second period, scoring his second goal of the game at 12:23, with assists from Zegras and Noah Cates, making it 2-0. Colorado responded late in the period when Martin Necas, assisted by Artturi Lehkonen and Devon Toews, netted a goal at 17:52 to cut the deficit to 2-1.

Noel Acciari restored a two-goal lead for the Flyers at 6:34 of the third period, with assists from Oliver Bonk and Zegras, pushing the score to 3-1. Colorado made a late push when T.J. Hughes scored at 14:40, assisted by Fedor Svechkov and Sam Malinski, bringing the Avalanche within one goal. However, Joseph Woll made 24 saves on 26 shots to earn the win for Philadelphia, while Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 21 of 24 shots for Colorado in the loss. The win improved Philadelphia's record to 1-6-3, while Colorado fell to 5-2-1.

#FlyersAvalanche #NHLRecap #MichkovZegras #HockeyNight

How the Prediction Fared

⚡ Upset

Before puck drop, DraftKings favored the Colorado Avalanche (-250, 71% implied) over the Philadelphia Flyers. The underdog won.

⚡ Model Missed

SportsFBI's model, locked before puck drop, favored the Colorado Avalanche (76% confidence). It gave a 41% chance of a 3+ goal margin; the game was decided by 1 goal.

💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line

Puck line · COL -1.5 PHI covered Won by 1
Total · 5.5 Under 5 combined
Moneyline COL -245 · PHI +198 COL favored
Line movementOpening line → close
Puck line (PHI) +1.5+1.5 No move
Total 6.55.5 -1
Moneyline (PHI) +176+198 +22

Standouts

Top Scorer · PHI
Trevor Zegras
0 G, 3 A, 3 PTS, 3 SOG · 17:41 TOI
Goals · PHI
Matvei Michkov
2 G, 0 A, 2 PTS, 2 SOG · 14:37 TOI
Goaltending · PHI
Joseph Woll
24 saves on 26 shots (.923) · W
Season highs
Trevor Zegras · Season-high 3 pointsMatvei Michkov · Season-high 2 goals

Every skater's and goalie's line is in the box score below.

📊 Game Flow

COL 0 largest lead Never led
PHI 2 largest lead P2 12:23 (COL 0, PHI 2) · 2-0 run, P1 7:41–P2 12:23
Swings 0 lead changes Tied 0 times
Scoring summary
  • P1 7:41 Matvei Michkov (Denver Barkey, Trevor Zegras) PHI · Power play · snap shot · COL 0, PHI 1
  • P2 12:23 Matvei Michkov (Trevor Zegras, Noah Cates) PHI · snap shot · COL 0, PHI 2
  • P2 17:52 Martin Necas (Artturi Lehkonen, Devon Toews) COL · snap shot · COL 1, PHI 2
  • P3 6:34 Noel Acciari (Oliver Bonk, Trevor Zegras) PHI · tip-in shot · COL 1, PHI 3
  • P3 14:40 T.J. Hughes (Fedor Svechkov, Sam Malinski) COL · wrist shot · COL 2, PHI 3

Linescore

123 T
COL 011 2
PHI 111 3

Shots on goal: COL 26, PHI 24

📋 Team Stats

COLPHI
26Shots on goal24
59Shot attempts59
25Faceoff wins33
16Hits26
15Blocked shots24
0Power-play goals1
5Takeaways7
16Giveaways6
0Penalty minutes4
87.5%Save %92.3%
Shots on goal by period
TeamP1P2P3Total
COL89926
PHI135624

🎯 Shot Map

Colorado Avalanche2 G · 42 attempts
Nathan MacKinnon: missed the netJaden Schwartz: saved (wrist)Sam Malinski: saved (wrist)Sam Malinski: saved (snap)Cale Makar: saved (snap)Brock Nelson: missed the netBrock Nelson: saved (wrist)Artturi Lehkonen: saved (snap)Brett Kulak: saved (wrist)Cale Makar: saved (wrist)Brock Nelson: missed the netFedor Svechkov: missed the netBrent Burns: saved (snap)Brett Kulak: saved (wrist)T.J. Hughes: missed the netNazem Kadri: missed the netGabriel Landeskog: missed the netMartin Necas: missed the netParker Kelly: saved (wrist)Brock Nelson: saved (snap)Martin Necas: saved (slap)Cale Makar: saved (snap)Cale Makar: saved (snap)Martin Necas: goal (snap)Brock Nelson: saved (slap)Jaden Schwartz: saved (wrist)T.J. Hughes: saved (backhand)Nazem Kadri: saved (wrist)Devon Toews: missed the netNathan MacKinnon: missed the netT.J. Hughes: missed the netDevon Toews: saved (deflected)Artturi Lehkonen: saved (slap)Josh Manson: saved (wrist)Jaden Schwartz: saved (tip-in)Cale Makar: missed the netT.J. Hughes: goal (wrist)Sam Malinski: missed the netNathan MacKinnon: missed the netNazem Kadri: missed the netNathan MacKinnon: saved (snap)Nazem Kadri: missed the net
  • 2Goals5% of attempts
  • 24Saved57% of attempts
  • 16Missed the net38% of attempts
Philadelphia Flyers3 G · 33 attempts
Travis Sanheim: saved (wrist)Jamie Drysdale: saved (slap)Noel Acciari: saved (snap)Jamie Drysdale: saved (snap)Matvei Michkov: goal (snap)Denver Barkey: missed the netPorter Martone: saved (wrist)Trevor Zegras: saved (snap)Michael Bunting: saved (backhand)Michael Bunting: missed the netTrevor Zegras: saved (snap)Noel Acciari: missed the netSean Couturier: saved (snap)Noel Acciari: saved (snap)Noel Acciari: saved (snap)Jamie Drysdale: saved (slap)Cole Knuble: missed the netAlex Bump: saved (snap)Matvei Michkov: missed the netTrevor Zegras: saved (wrist)Matvei Michkov: goal (snap)Jamie Drysdale: saved (snap)Alex Bump: missed the netTravis Sanheim: saved (wrist)Trevor Zegras: missed the netSean Couturier: saved (snap)Travis Sanheim: saved (wrist)Michael Bunting: missed the netNoel Acciari: goal (tip-in)Cole Knuble: saved (snap)Christian Dvorak: saved (wrist)Christian Dvorak: saved (tip-in)Matvei Michkov: missed the net
  • 3Goals9% of attempts
  • 21Saved64% of attempts
  • 9Missed the net27% of attempts

● goal (large) · ● saved · ✕ missed the net; blocked shots are not located. Each team attacks to the right.

🏒 Box Score

COL skatersG goals · A assists · P points · SOG shots on goal · TOI time on ice
PlayerPosGAP+/-SOGHITBLKTOI
Martin Necas C 101021017:40
T.J. Hughes R 101+121016:54
Devon Toews D 011010120:48
Artturi Lehkonen L 011020119:06
Fedor Svechkov C 011+102116:05
Sam Malinski D 011+125414:40
Nathan MacKinnon C 000-210024:20
Cale Makar D 000-241023:38
Nazem Kadri C 000-110021:17
Brock Nelson C 000+130018:46
Jaden Schwartz L 000+130016:27
Brett Kulak D 000+120216:00
Brent Burns D 000010215:52
Gabriel Landeskog L 000001014:36
Josh Manson D 000-111214:16
Parker Kelly C 000012112:31
Noah Juulsen D 000001108:35
Gavin Brindley C 000001007:57
COL goaliesG goals · A assists · P points · SOG shots on goal · TOI time on ice
PlayerDecSVSASV%GATOI
Mackenzie Blackwood L 212487.5357:58
PHI skatersG goals · A assists · P points · SOG shots on goal · TOI time on ice
PlayerPosGAP+/-SOGHITBLKTOI
Trevor Zegras C 033+231117:41
Matvei Michkov R 202021114:37
Noel Acciari C 101043218:31
Oliver Bonk D 011-100324:22
Denver Barkey C 011001016:41
Noah Cates L 011002013:47
Travis Sanheim D 000+131728:21
Nick Seeler D 000002223:40
Jamie Drysdale D 000040122:51
Christian Dvorak C 000+122117:43
Sean Couturier C 000-121116:44
Porter Martone R 000-112014:02
Cole Knuble R 000010013:44
Jacob Gaucher C 000002012:45
Alex Bump L 000011010:55
Michael Bunting L 000010010:16
Hunter McDonald D 000-104310:00
David Jiricek D 000003209:20
PHI goaliesG goals · A assists · P points · SOG shots on goal · TOI time on ice
PlayerDecSVSASV%GATOI
Joseph Woll W 242692.3260:00

🎟️ Player Props Results Consensus lines

PlayerPropLineActualResult
Trevor Zegras PHI Points0.53 Over
Assists0.53 Over
Shots on goal1.53 Over
Matvei Michkov PHI Points0.52 Over
Assists0.50 Under
Shots on goal1.52 Over
Devon Toews COL Points0.51 Over
Assists0.51 Over
Martin Necas COL Points0.51 Over
Assists0.50 Under
Goals0.51 Over
Shots on goal2.52 Under
Artturi Lehkonen COL Points0.51 Over
Assists0.51 Over
Shots on goal1.52 Over
T.J. Hughes COL Points0.51 Over
Assists0.50 Under
Shots on goal1.52 Over

The last pregame line, graded against the final box score.

⚔️ Season Series & What's Next

2026-27 season series COL 0 – 1 PHI
Last 3 meetings · since 2025-26 COL 1 – 2 PHI
Previous meetingsOpen the recap
After this game
Colorado Avalanche 5-3-1 L1 L10 5-3-1 Next game recap: @ NJD · Tue, Oct 20
Philadelphia Flyers 2-6-3 W2 L10 2-5-3 Next game recap: @ BUF · Wed, Oct 21

🔍 Key Suspects Results

7 of 13 graded picks hit. Pushes and voided picks are not counted.

COL — Away
Cale Makar Cale Makar D Shots on Goal · FanDuel 2.5 OVER HIT Actual 4
Gabriel Landeskog Gabriel Landeskog LW Points · DraftKings 0.5 OVER MISS Actual 0
Nazem Kadri Nazem Kadri C Assists · FanDuel 1+ MILESTONE MISS Actual 0
Martin Necas Martin Necas C Assists · BetMGM 0.5 OVER MISS Actual 0
Devon Toews Devon Toews D Points · DraftKings 0.5 OVER HIT Actual 1
Nathan MacKinnon Nathan MacKinnon C Assists · BetMGM 0.5 UNDER HIT Actual 0
Brett Kulak Brett Kulak D Assists · DraftKings 0.5 OVER MISS Actual 0
PHI — Home
Jamie Drysdale Jamie Drysdale D Points · DraftKings 0.5 UNDER HIT Actual 0
Michael Bunting Michael Bunting LW Points · DraftKings 0.5 UNDER HIT Actual 0
Matvei Michkov Matvei Michkov RW Assists · BetMGM 0.5 UNDER HIT Actual 0
Porter Martone Porter Martone RW Shots on Goal · DraftKings 1.5 UNDER HIT Actual 1
Christian Dvorak Christian Dvorak C Shots on Goal · DraftKings 1.5 UNDER MISS Actual 2
Trevor Zegras Trevor Zegras C Shots on Goal · DraftKings 1.5 UNDER MISS Actual 3

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