NHL Final Intelligence

PIT 3-6-1
4 – 5
FINAL
UTA 7-3-0

Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Utah Mammoth 5 — Recap

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📰Game Recap

Utah defeated Pittsburgh 5-4, holding off a late Penguins surge behind a strong offensive performance and a 29-19 shot advantage. SportsFBI's model had indicated a 64% probability of a Utah victory. The Penguins initially took the lead early in the first period when Erik Karlsson scored at 1:11, assisted by Bryan Rust and Tommy Novak. Utah quickly responded, tying the game at 6:00 with a goal from Clayton Keller, assisted by Lawson Crouse and Nick Schmaltz. Kevin Stenlund, with assists from Mikhail Sergachev and Jack McBain, then put Utah ahead 2-1 at 10:10 of the opening frame.

Pittsburgh tied the game early in the second period as Rickard Rakell scored at 7:01, assisted by Bryan Rust and Erik Karlsson. However, Utah regained and extended its lead. Nate Schmidt, with assists from Kevin Stenlund and Daniil But, made it 3-2 at 11:44. Kailer Yamamoto followed at 14:40, assisted by Nate Schmidt and Barrett Hayton, giving Utah a 4-2 lead. Utah's Sebastian Cossa stopped 14 of 18 shots, while Pittsburgh's Arturs Silovs made 24 saves on 29 shots.

The Mammoth extended their lead to 5-2 at 1:36 of the third period with a goal from Nick Schmaltz, assisted by Clayton Keller and Logan Cooley. The Penguins began a comeback attempt shortly after, with Egor Chinakhov scoring at 2:55, assisted by Andrei Kuzmenko and Spencer Stastney. Declan Carlile brought Pittsburgh within one goal at 14:55, assisted by Rickard Rakell and Kaedan Korczak. Despite multiple-point efforts from Pittsburgh's Erik Karlsson (one goal, one assist) and Rickard Rakell (one goal, one assist), and Utah's Nate Schmidt (one goal, one assist) and Nick Schmaltz (one goal, one assist), the Penguins could not complete the rally. Utah now stands at 6-3-0, while Pittsburgh's record is 3-5-1.

#MammothPenguins #NHLRecap #UtahHockey #PittsburghHockey #GameStory

How the Prediction Fared

✓ Favorite Won

Before puck drop, DraftKings favored the Utah Mammoth (-185, 65% implied) over the Pittsburgh Penguins.

✓ Model Hit

SportsFBI's model, locked before puck drop, favored the Utah Mammoth (64% confidence). It gave a 35% chance of a 3+ goal margin; the game was decided by 1 goal.

💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line

Puck line · UTA -1.5 PIT covered Won by 1
Total · 6.5 Over 9 combined
Moneyline PIT +155 · UTA -188 UTA favored
Line movementOpening line → close
Puck line (UTA) -1.5-1.5 No move
Total 6.56.5 No move
Moneyline (UTA) -184-188 -4

Standouts

Top Scorer · PIT
Rickard Rakell
1 G, 1 A, 2 PTS, 3 SOG · 19:00 TOI
Goals · UTA
Kevin Stenlund
1 G, 1 A, 2 PTS, 2 SOG · 13:43 TOI
Goaltending · UTA
Sebastian Cossa
15 saves on 19 shots (.789) · W

Every skater's and goalie's line is in the box score below.

📊 Game Flow

PIT 1 largest lead P1 1:11 (PIT 1, UTA 0) · 2-0 run, P3 2:55–P3 14:55
UTA 3 largest lead P3 1:36 (PIT 2, UTA 5) · 3-0 run, P2 11:44–P3 1:36
Swings 1 lead changes Tied 2 times
Scoring summary
  • P1 1:11 Erik Karlsson (Bryan Rust, Tommy Novak) PIT · Power play · slap shot · PIT 1, UTA 0
  • P1 6:00 Clayton Keller (Lawson Crouse, Nick Schmaltz) UTA · backhand shot · PIT 1, UTA 1
  • P1 10:10 Kevin Stenlund (Mikhail Sergachev, Jack McBain) UTA · wrist shot · PIT 1, UTA 2
  • P2 7:01 Rickard Rakell (Bryan Rust, Erik Karlsson) PIT · Power play · wrist shot · PIT 2, UTA 2
  • P2 11:44 Nate Schmidt (Kevin Stenlund, Daniil But) UTA · slap shot · PIT 2, UTA 3
  • P2 14:40 Kailer Yamamoto (Nate Schmidt, Barrett Hayton) UTA · tip-in shot · PIT 2, UTA 4
  • P3 1:36 Nick Schmaltz (Clayton Keller, Logan Cooley) UTA · Power play · backhand shot · PIT 2, UTA 5
  • P3 2:55 Egor Chinakhov (Andrei Kuzmenko, Spencer Stastney) PIT · snap shot · PIT 3, UTA 5
  • P3 14:55 Declan Carlile (Rickard Rakell, Kaedan Korczak) PIT · wrist shot · PIT 4, UTA 5

Linescore

123 T
PIT 112 4
UTA 221 5

Shots on goal: PIT 19, UTA 29

📋 Team Stats

PITUTA
19Shots on goal29
47Shot attempts63
24Faceoff wins33
15Hits26
15Blocked shots13
2Power-play goals1
1Takeaways3
17Giveaways17
6Penalty minutes6
82.8%Save %78.9%
Shots on goal by period
TeamP1P2P3Total
PIT67619
UTA168529

🎯 Shot Map

Pittsburgh Penguins4 G · 31 attempts
Erik Karlsson: goal (slap)Evgeni Malkin: saved (snap)Blake Lizotte: saved (wrist)Egor Chinakhov: missed the netKris Letang: saved (snap)Tommy Novak: saved (wrist)Ilya Solovyov: missed the netTommy Novak: missed the netConnor Dewar: saved (snap)Rickard Rakell: missed the netSidney Crosby: saved (snap)Rickard Rakell: goal (wrist)Blake Lizotte: saved (snap)Nick Robertson: saved (snap)Kris Letang: saved (snap)Kris Letang: saved (snap)Kaedan Korczak: missed the netSidney Crosby: missed the netNick Robertson: saved (snap)Egor Chinakhov: goal (snap)Rickard Rakell: saved (backhand)Andrei Kuzmenko: missed the netRickard Rakell: missed the netDeclan Carlile: saved (slap)Egor Chinakhov: missed the netRickard Rakell: saved (tip-in)Declan Carlile: goal (wrist)Ben Kindel: missed the netRickard Rakell: missed the netErik Karlsson: missed the netBen Kindel: saved (wrist)
  • 4Goals13% of attempts
  • 15Saved48% of attempts
  • 12Missed the net39% of attempts
Utah Mammoth5 G · 46 attempts
Dylan Guenther: saved (bat)Vincent Trocheck: missed the netNick Schmaltz: missed the netMikhail Sergachev: saved (snap)Jack McBain: saved (tip-in)Nick Schmaltz: saved (snap)Mikhail Sergachev: missed the netClayton Keller: goal (backhand)Logan Cooley: saved (snap)Dylan Guenther: missed the netMikhail Sergachev: saved (snap)Nick DeSimone: saved (snap)Mikhail Sergachev: saved (snap)Kevin Stenlund: goal (wrist)Kailer Yamamoto: saved (snap)Andrew Peeke: missed the netJack McBain: saved (snap)Barrett Hayton: saved (tip-in)Dmitri Simashev: saved (snap)Mikhail Sergachev: missed the netMacKenzie Weegar: saved (snap)MacKenzie Weegar: saved (snap)Barrett Hayton: saved (snap)Andrew Peeke: saved (snap)Mikhail Sergachev: saved (snap)Lawson Crouse: saved (snap)Nate Schmidt: goal (slap)MacKenzie Weegar: saved (backhand)Kailer Yamamoto: goal (tip-in)Dmitri Simashev: missed the netDmitri Simashev: missed the netAnders Lee: saved (wrap-around)Dylan Guenther: missed the netDylan Guenther: missed the netDylan Guenther: saved (slap)Nick Schmaltz: missed the netNick Schmaltz: goal (backhand)Daniil But: saved (deflected)Kevin Stenlund: missed the netDmitri Simashev: missed the netLogan Cooley: saved (backhand)Kevin Stenlund: missed the netLawson Crouse: missed the netKevin Stenlund: saved (snap)Mikhail Sergachev: missed the netAnders Lee: missed the net
  • 5Goals11% of attempts
  • 24Saved52% of attempts
  • 17Missed the net37% of attempts

● goal (large) · ● saved · ✕ missed the net; blocked shots are not located. Each team attacks to the right.

🏒 Box Score

PIT skatersG goals · A assists · P points · SOG shots on goal · TOI time on ice
PlayerPosGAP+/-SOGHITBLKTOI
Erik Karlsson D 112-110327:40
Rickard Rakell R 112+132019:00
Bryan Rust R 022-201109:32
Declan Carlile D 101-220116:05
Egor Chinakhov R 101-111015:32
Spencer Stastney D 011000121:06
Kaedan Korczak D 011-101316:27
Andrei Kuzmenko L 011000014:19
Tommy Novak C 011-210113:03
Kris Letang D 000033121:55
Ben Kindel C 000011118:53
Sidney Crosby C 000010018:31
Evgeni Malkin C 000010016:34
Ilya Solovyov D 000001115:52
Ville Koivunen R 000-100013:17
Connor Dewar C 000-114013:13
Nick Robertson L 000020013:12
Blake Lizotte C 000021211:56
PIT goaliesG goals · A assists · P points · SOG shots on goal · TOI time on ice
PlayerDecSVSASV%GATOI
Arturs Silovs L 242982.8558:44
UTA skatersG goals · A assists · P points · SOG shots on goal · TOI time on ice
PlayerPosGAP+/-SOGHITBLKTOI
Clayton Keller R 112+110019:03
Nate Schmidt D 112+212018:31
Nick Schmaltz C 112+121017:41
Kevin Stenlund C 112+124013:43
Kailer Yamamoto R 101020214:03
Mikhail Sergachev D 011+240124:54
Logan Cooley C 011022016:29
Lawson Crouse L 011+112015:51
Barrett Hayton C 011020114:14
Jack McBain C 011+122012:14
Daniil But L 011+110312:06
MacKenzie Weegar D 000+132123:59
Andrew Peeke D 000013018:10
Dylan Guenther R 000020215:48
Dmitri Simashev D 000-213215:42
Nick DeSimone D 000+111015:39
Vincent Trocheck C 000003114:58
Anders Lee L 000011013:55
UTA goaliesG goals · A assists · P points · SOG shots on goal · TOI time on ice
PlayerDecSVSASV%GATOI
Sebastian Cossa W 151978.9460:00

🎟️ Player Props Results Consensus lines

PlayerPropLineActualResult
Bryan Rust PIT Points0.52 Over
Assists0.52 Over
Goals0.50 Under
Shots on goal2.50 Under
Rickard Rakell PIT Points0.52 Over
Assists0.51 Over
Goals0.51 Over
Shots on goal2.53 Over
Clayton Keller UTA Points0.52 Over
Assists0.51 Over
Goals0.51 Over
Shots on goal2.51 Under
Nick Schmaltz UTA Points0.52 Over
Assists0.51 Over
Goals0.51 Over
Shots on goal2.52 Under
Erik Karlsson PIT Points0.52 Over
Assists0.51 Over
Shots on goal2.51 Under
Nate Schmidt UTA Points0.52 Over
Assists0.51 Over

The last pregame line, graded against the final box score.

⚔️ Season Series & What's Next

2026-27 season series PIT 0 – 1 UTA
Last 3 meetings · since 2025-26 PIT 1 – 2 UTA
Previous meetingsOpen the recap
After this game
Pittsburgh Penguins 3-6-1 L4 L10 3-6-1 Next game recap: vs FLA · Thu, Oct 22
Utah Mammoth 7-3-0 W1 L10 7-3-0 Next game recap: @ SEA · Thu, Oct 22

🔍 Key Suspects Results

3 of 13 graded picks hit. Pushes and voided picks are not counted.

PIT — Away
Evgeni Malkin Evgeni Malkin C Goals · FanDuel 0.5 OVER MISS Actual 0
Erik Karlsson Erik Karlsson D Shots on Goal · BetMGM 2.5 UNDER HIT Actual 1
Ben Kindel Ben Kindel C Points · BetMGM 0.5 UNDER HIT Actual 0
Rickard Rakell Rickard Rakell RW Points · BetMGM 0.5 UNDER MISS Actual 2
Bryan Rust Bryan Rust RW Assists · DraftKings 0.5 UNDER MISS Actual 2
Elmer Soderblom Elmer Soderblom LW Anytime Goal · FanDuel 1+ MILESTONE VOID
Nick Robertson Nick Robertson LW Anytime Goal · BetRivers 1+ MILESTONE MISS Actual 0
UTA — Home
Logan Cooley Logan Cooley C Shots on Goal · BetMGM 1.5 UNDER MISS Actual 2
Kailer Yamamoto Kailer Yamamoto RW Points · FanDuel 1+ MILESTONE HIT Actual 1
Dylan Guenther Dylan Guenther RW Shots on Goal · FanDuel 4+ MILESTONE MISS Actual 2
Clayton Keller Clayton Keller RW Goals · FanDuel 0.5 UNDER MISS Actual 1
MacKenzie Weegar MacKenzie Weegar D Anytime Goal · Fanatics 1+ MILESTONE MISS Actual 0
Anders Lee Anders Lee LW Shots on Goal · DraftKings 1.5 OVER MISS Actual 1
Nick Schmaltz Nick Schmaltz C Shots on Goal · FanDuel 2.5 OVER MISS Actual 2

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