NHL Final Intelligence
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Winnipeg Jets 4 — Recap
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Game Recap
The Winnipeg Jets defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-3 after holding off a furious third-period comeback. Winnipeg built a two-goal advantage in the second period, starting when Cole Perfetti scored at 1:53 with assists from Mark Scheifele and Haydn Fleury. Morgan Barron extended the lead to 2-0 at 12:38, assisted by Neal Pionk and Viggo Björck, capping a frame where the Jets outpaced the Lightning through 25 shots on goal to Tampa Bay's 20.
Winnipeg appeared to pull away in the third period when Brayden Yager capitalized at 8:10 off feeds from Viggo Björck and Alex Iafallo, making it 3-0. However, Tampa Bay responded immediately. Brandon Hagel put the Lightning on the board at 10:22 from Anthony Cirelli, before Pontus Holmberg struck twice in quick succession. Holmberg scored at 14:01 and again at 14:27, with Erik Cernak assisting on both goals and Zemgus Girgensons and Ilya Mikheyev adding helpers to tie the game 3-3.
With regulation time expiring, Mark Scheifele secured the victory for Winnipeg by scoring the game-winner with just one second remaining at 19:59, assisted by Cole Perfetti and Gabriel Vilardi. Stuart Skinner stopped 17 of 20 shots for the Jets, while Andrei Vasilevskiy made 21 saves on 25 shots for the Lightning. The outcome shifted Winnipeg's record to 6-8-3 and dropped Tampa Bay to 11-3-2, missing the pregame SportsFBI model lean of 60% for the Lightning.
How the Prediction Fared
Before puck drop, DraftKings favored the Tampa Bay Lightning (-162, 62% implied) over the Winnipeg Jets. The underdog won.
SportsFBI's model, locked before puck drop, favored the Tampa Bay Lightning (60% confidence). It gave a 33% chance of a 3+ goal margin; the game was decided by 1 goal.
💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line
Standouts
Every skater's and goalie's line is in the box score below.
📊 Game Flow
- P2 1:53 Cole Perfetti (Mark Scheifele, Haydn Fleury) WPG · Power play · snap shot · TBL 0, WPG 1
- P2 12:38 Morgan Barron (Neal Pionk, Viggo Björck) WPG · slap shot · TBL 0, WPG 2
- P3 8:10 Brayden Yager (Viggo Björck, Alex Iafallo) WPG · Power play · snap shot · TBL 0, WPG 3
- P3 10:22 Brandon Hagel (Anthony Cirelli) TBL · wrist shot · TBL 1, WPG 3
- P3 14:01 Pontus Holmberg (Erik Cernak, Zemgus Girgensons) TBL · snap shot · TBL 2, WPG 3
- P3 14:27 Pontus Holmberg (Erik Cernak, Ilya Mikheyev) TBL · backhand shot · TBL 3, WPG 3
- P3 19:59 Mark Scheifele (Cole Perfetti, Gabriel Vilardi) WPG · Power play · slap shot · TBL 3, WPG 4
Biggest Period
The Tampa Bay Lightning scored 3 goals in P3 — the biggest single period of the game.
📋 Team Stats
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 7 | 7 | 6 | 20 |
| WPG | 5 | 12 | 8 | 25 |
🎯 Shot Map
- 3Goals10% of attempts
- 17Saved55% of attempts
- 11Missed the net35% of attempts
- 4Goals10% of attempts
- 21Saved50% of attempts
- 17Missed the net40% of attempts
● goal (large) · ● saved · ✕ missed the net; blocked shots are not located. Each team attacks to the right.
🏒 Box Score
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontus Holmberg | R | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13:23 |
| Erik Cernak | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 16:59 |
| Brandon Hagel | L | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 19:20 |
| Anthony Cirelli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:48 |
| Zemgus Girgensons | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 14:58 |
| Ilya Mikheyev | R | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:46 |
| Nikita Kucherov | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:36 |
| Jake Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20:47 |
| J.J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19:14 |
| John Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 19:07 |
| Ryan McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17:27 |
| Charle-Edouard D'Astous | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17:27 |
| Victor Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17:18 |
| Max Crozier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16:23 |
| Yanni Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 15:41 |
| Conor Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13:22 |
| Jeffrey Viel | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11:52 |
| Brayden Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 05:35 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | — | 21 | 25 | 84.0 | 4 | 59:59 |
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Scheifele | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 21:55 |
| Cole Perfetti | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 15:42 |
| Viggo Björck | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13:22 |
| Morgan Barron | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14:26 |
| Brayden Yager | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:00 |
| Neal Pionk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 27:16 |
| Gabriel Vilardi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:34 |
| Haydn Fleury | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16:37 |
| Alex Iafallo | L | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:44 |
| Kyle Connor | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 24:36 |
| Dylan Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 23:25 |
| Mario Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19:35 |
| Dylan DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17:26 |
| Dawson Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:21 |
| Adam Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 13:44 |
| Tyrel Bauer | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 09:20 |
| Cole Koepke | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 07:16 |
| Isak Rosen | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 06:44 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner | — | 17 | 20 | 85.0 | 3 | 59:51 |
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