โ† MLB

MLB Matchup Intelligence

ARI vs
TB

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays

June 28, 2026 ยท 1:40 PM ET ยท Tropicana Field
ARI 86-76  ยท  TB 98-64

๐Ÿ Final: ARI 1, TB 5 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† Tampa Bay Rays
Confidence 70%
Projected Score TB 5 ยท ARI 2
Blowout Probability 13%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

TB Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
ARI Key injuries TB (Chandler Simpson, Griffin Jax) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Key injuries ARI (Corbin Burnes, Gabriel Moreno) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB SP quality edge (FIP 2.33 vs 5.97, PF 0.95) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
ARI TB SP fatigued โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Defensive edge (dWAR 4.0) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Recent run diff (+2.2 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
ARI SP road mastery (ERA 4.47 R vs 6.21 H) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
ARI Bullpen edge (quality/availability) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

ARI โ€” Away RHP
Merrill Kelly
Merrill Kelly
ERA4.94
WHIP1.46
FIP5.25
K/96.3
K/BB2.4
Road ERA: 4.47
vs
TB โ€” Home RHP
Drew Rasmussen
Drew Rasmussen
ERA2.67
WHIP0.91
FIP2.69
K/99.1
K/BB7.4
Home ERA: 2.89

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

ARI โ€” Away
  1. 1 Ketel Marte DH
  2. 2 Geraldo Perdomo SS
  3. 3 Corbin Carroll RF
  4. 4 Adrian Del Castillo C
  5. 5 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF
  6. 6 Pavin Smith 1B
  7. 7 Nolan Arenado 3B
  8. 8 Ildemaro Vargas 2B
  9. 9 Tommy Troy CF
TB โ€” Home
  1. 1 Yandy Diaz DH
  2. 2 Jonathan Aranda 1B
  3. 3 Junior Caminero 3B
  4. 4 Victor Mesa Jr. RF
  5. 5 Chandler Simpson LF
  6. 6 Cedric Mullins CF
  7. 7 Ben Williamson 2B
  8. 8 Taylor Walls SS
  9. 9 Nick Fortes C

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

ARI Away TB Home
Team OPS 0.674 0.726
Bullpen FIP 3.95 4.55
Run Diff / 10G -0.8 +1.4
Days Rest 0 0
Streak -2 -1

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
ARI +3.5 (+118)
TB -3.5 (-154)
Total (O/U)
Over 6.5 (+118)
Under 6.5 (-154)
Moneyline
ARI +1440
TB -10000

๐Ÿ” Key Suspects Top 4 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Click a suspect for the full evidence breakdown. Full rankings, verdicts, sharp money signals, and live lineup tracking are in the workspace.

ARI โ€” Away
Geraldo Perdomo Geraldo Perdomo SS
Singles
0.5
64 ยท OVER
Ketel Marte Ketel Marte DH
Runs
1.5
51 ยท UNDER
Nolan Arenado Nolan Arenado 3B
Runs
1.5
51 ยท UNDER
TB โ€” Home
Yandy Diaz Yandy Diaz DH
Singles
0.5
70 ยท OVER
Victor Mesa Jr. Victor Mesa Jr. RF
Singles
0.5
65 ยท OVER
Junior Caminero Junior Caminero 3B
Runs
1.5
62 ยท UNDER
Taylor Walls Taylor Walls SS
Hits
0.5
62 ยท OVER

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

Launch Workspace Back to MLB