โ† MLB

MLB Matchup Intelligence

BOS vs
SEA

Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners

June 21, 2026 ยท 4:10 PM ET ยท T-Mobile Park
BOS 87-75  ยท  SEA 76-86

๐Ÿ Final: BOS 1, SEA 3 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† Boston Red Sox
Confidence 60%
Projected Score BOS 3 ยท SEA 2
Blowout Probability 6%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

SEA Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SEA Key injuries BOS (Mickey Gasper, Roman Anthony) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS SP quality edge (FIP 2.88 vs 3.06, PF 0.94) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SEA BOS SP elevated fatigue โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS Defensive edge (dWAR 5.6) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS Recent run diff (+2.4 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS SEA SP road-favored (pitching at home) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS Bullpen edge (quality/availability) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

BOS โ€” Away LHP
Payton Tolle
Payton Tolle
ERA3.03
WHIP1.10
FIP2.92
K/910.4
K/BB8.0
Road ERA: 2.55
vs
SEA โ€” Home RHP
Logan Gilbert
Logan Gilbert
ERA3.73
WHIP1.09
FIP3.71
K/99.9
K/BB7.5
Home ERA: 4.53

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

BOS โ€” Away
  1. 1 Anthony Seigler 2B
  2. 2 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
  3. 3 Mickey Gasper DH
  4. 4 Willson Contreras 1B
  5. 5 Jarren Duran LF
  6. 6 Caleb Durbin 3B
  7. 7 Marcelo Mayer SS
  8. 8 Connor Wong C
  9. 9 Nate Eaton RF
SEA โ€” Home
  1. 1 J.P. Crawford SS
  2. 2 Cal Raleigh C
  3. 3 Julio Rodriguez CF
  4. 4 Josh Naylor 1B
  5. 5 Rob Refsnyder DH
  6. 6 Dominic Canzone RF
  7. 7 Victor Robles LF
  8. 8 Weston Wilson 3B
  9. 9 Cole Young 2B

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

BOS Away SEA Home
Team OPS 0.704 0.658
Bullpen FIP 3.55 4.56
Run Diff / 10G +0.6 -1.8
Days Rest 0 0
Streak -3 2

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
BOS +1.5 (+338)
SEA -1.5 (-508)
Total (O/U)
Over 4.5 (+321)
Under 4.5 (-476)
Moneyline
BOS +920
SEA -2900

๐Ÿ” Key Suspects Top 2 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Click a suspect for the full evidence breakdown. Full rankings, verdicts, sharp money signals, and live lineup tracking are in the workspace.

BOS โ€” Away
Payton Tolle Payton Tolle SP
Outs
16.5
56 ยท OVER
Ceddanne Rafaela Ceddanne Rafaela CF
Singles
0.5
55 ยท OVER
SEA โ€” Home
Dominic Canzone Dominic Canzone RF
Singles
0.5
58 ยท OVER
Julio Rodriguez Julio Rodriguez CF
Singles
0.5
54 ยท OVER

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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