โ† MLB

MLB Matchup Intelligence

NYY vs
TB

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays

July 7, 2026 ยท 6:40 PM ET ยท Tropicana Field
NYY 93-68  ยท  TB 98-64

๐Ÿ Final: NYY 4, TB 6 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† Tampa Bay Rays
Confidence 52%
Projected Score TB 6 ยท NYY 5
Blowout Probability 3%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

TB Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYY Key injuries TB (Chandler Simpson, Griffin Jax) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYY SP quality edge (FIP 4.05 vs 4.17, PF 0.95) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Defensive edge (dWAR 6.4) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB K edge vs NYY lineup (10.8 K/9) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Recent run diff (+4.6 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYY TB SP road-favored (pitching at home) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYY Bullpen edge (quality/availability) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

NYY โ€” Away RHP
Will Warren
Will Warren
ERA3.92
WHIP1.36
FIP3.86
K/99.1
K/BB6.0
Road ERA: 4.49
vs
TB โ€” Home LHP
Ian Seymour
Ian Seymour
ERA4.21
WHIP1.13
FIP3.99
K/910.8
K/BB8.3
Home ERA: 5.33

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

NYY โ€” Away
  1. 1 Trent Grisham CF
  2. 2 Paul Goldschmidt 1B
  3. 3 Ben Rice DH
  4. 4 Amed Rosario 3B
  5. 5 Cody Bellinger LF
  6. 6 Jose Caballero SS
  7. 7 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B
  8. 8 Max Schuemann RF
  9. 9 Ali Sanchez C
TB โ€” Home
  1. 1 Yandy Diaz DH
  2. 2 Jonathan Aranda 1B
  3. 3 Junior Caminero 3B
  4. 4 Cedric Mullins CF
  5. 5 Chandler Simpson LF
  6. 6 Victor Mesa Jr. RF
  7. 7 Taylor Walls SS
  8. 8 Richie Palacios 2B
  9. 9 Hunter Feduccia C

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

NYY Away TB Home
Team OPS 0.717 0.729
Bullpen FIP 4.52 4.55
Run Diff / 10G -2.8 +1.8
Days Rest 0 0
Streak 2 -1

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
NYY +1.5 (+318)
TB -1.5 (-471)
Total (O/U)
Over 10.5 (+311)
Under 10.5 (-458)
Moneyline
NYY +1100
TB -5000

๐Ÿ” Key Suspects Top 4 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Click a suspect for the full evidence breakdown. Full rankings, verdicts, sharp money signals, and live lineup tracking are in the workspace.

NYY โ€” Away
Ben Rice Ben Rice DH
Total Bases
4.5
65 ยท UNDER
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B
Singles
0.5
58 ยท OVER
Cody Bellinger Cody Bellinger LF
Singles
0.5
55 ยท OVER
Amed Rosario Amed Rosario 3B
Singles
0.5
52 ยท OVER
TB โ€” Home
Chandler Simpson Chandler Simpson LF
Singles
0.5
77 ยท OVER
Yandy Diaz Yandy Diaz DH
Singles
0.5
62 ยท OVER
Victor Mesa Jr. Victor Mesa Jr. RF
Singles
0.5
56 ยท OVER
Jonathan Aranda Jonathan Aranda 1B
Total Bases
4.5
50 ยท UNDER

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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