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MLB Matchup Intelligence

NYY vs
TB

New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays

July 9, 2026 ยท 1:10 PM ET ยท Tropicana Field
NYY 93-68  ยท  TB 98-64

๐Ÿ Final: NYY 12, TB 4 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† Tampa Bay Rays
Confidence 72%
Projected Score TB 10 ยท NYY 8
Blowout Probability 14%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

TB Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYY Key injuries TB (Chandler Simpson, Griffin Jax) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB SP quality edge (FIP 2.73 vs 4.31, PF 0.95) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYY TB SP fatigued โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Defensive edge (dWAR 2.9) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Recent run diff (+4.1 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYY Bullpen edge (quality/availability) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

NYY โ€” Away RHP
Paul Blackburn
Paul Blackburn
ERA1.69
WHIP1.09
FIP3.71
K/97.3
K/BB3.8
vs
TB โ€” Home RHP
Drew Rasmussen
Drew Rasmussen
ERA2.67
WHIP0.91
FIP2.69
K/99.1
K/BB7.4
Home ERA: 2.89

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

NYY โ€” Away
  1. 1 Trent Grisham CF
  2. 2 Ben Rice DH
  3. 3 Jasson Dominguez RF
  4. 4 Cody Bellinger 1B
  5. 5 Jose Caballero SS
  6. 6 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B
  7. 7 Max Schuemann LF
  8. 8 Ryan McMahon 3B
  9. 9 Austin Wells C
TB โ€” Home
  1. 1 Yandy Diaz DH
  2. 2 Jonathan Aranda 1B
  3. 3 Junior Caminero 3B
  4. 4 Victor Mesa Jr. CF
  5. 5 Ryan Vilade RF
  6. 6 Chandler Simpson LF
  7. 7 Ben Williamson 2B
  8. 8 Taylor Walls SS
  9. 9 Nick Fortes C

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

NYY Away TB Home
Team OPS 0.703 0.739
Bullpen FIP 4.52 4.55
Run Diff / 10G -2.5 +1.6
Days Rest 0 0
Streak 2 -1

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
NYY -5.5 (+108)
TB +5.5 (-140)
Total (O/U)
Over 17.5 (-122)
Under 17.5 (-107)
Moneyline
NYY -4900
TB +1080

๐Ÿ” Key Suspects Top 3 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Click a suspect for the full evidence breakdown. Full rankings, verdicts, sharp money signals, and live lineup tracking are in the workspace.

NYY โ€” Away
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B
Singles
0.5
50 ยท OVER
TB โ€” Home
Chandler Simpson Chandler Simpson LF
Singles
0.5
67 ยท OVER
Drew Rasmussen Drew Rasmussen SP
Outs
17.5
53 ยท OVER
Yandy Diaz Yandy Diaz DH
Singles
0.5
52 ยท OVER

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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