โ† MLB

MLB Matchup Intelligence

TB vs
TOR

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays

May 11, 2026 ยท 7:07 PM ET ยท Rogers Centre
TB 98-64  ยท  TOR 79-83

๐Ÿ Final: TB 8, TOR 5 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† Tampa Bay Rays
Confidence 72%
Projected Score TB 8 ยท TOR 6
Blowout Probability 14%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

TOR Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Record edge โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Key injuries TOR (Dylan Cease) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TOR Key injuries TB (Chandler Simpson, Griffin Jax) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB SP quality edge (FIP 3.15 vs 3.82) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB TOR SP fatigued โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TOR TB SP fatigued โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Defensive edge (dWAR 4.1) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Recent run diff (+1.3 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TOR Bullpen edge (quality/availability) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

TB โ€” Away RHP
Drew Rasmussen
Drew Rasmussen
ERA2.67
WHIP0.91
FIP2.69
K/99.1
K/BB7.4
Road ERA: 2.50
vs
TOR โ€” Home RHP
Kevin Gausman
Kevin Gausman
ERA4.51
WHIP1.27
FIP3.73
K/99.3
K/BB7.0
Home ERA: 6.32

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

TB โ€” Away
  1. 1 Chandler Simpson LF
  2. 2 Junior Caminero 3B
  3. 3 Jonathan Aranda 1B
  4. 4 Yandy Diaz DH
  5. 5 Jake Fraley RF
  6. 6 Richie Palacios 2B
  7. 7 Cedric Mullins CF
  8. 8 Hunter Feduccia C
  9. 9 Taylor Walls SS
TOR โ€” Home
  1. 1 George Springer DH
  2. 2 Yohendrick Pinango LF
  3. 3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B
  4. 4 Kazuma Okamoto 3B
  5. 5 Daulton Varsho CF
  6. 6 Jesus Sanchez RF
  7. 7 Ernie Clement 2B
  8. 8 Andres Gimenez SS
  9. 9 Brandon Valenzuela C

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

TB Away TOR Home
Team OPS 0.710 0.690
Bullpen FIP 4.55 4.49
Run Diff / 10G +1.9 +0.6
Days Rest 0 0
Streak -1 1

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
TB -2.5 (-491)
TOR +2.5 (+328)
Total (O/U)
Over 13.5 (+257)
Under 13.5 (-364)
Moneyline
TB -10000
TOR +1400

๐Ÿ” Key Suspects Top 1 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Click a suspect for the full evidence breakdown. Full rankings, verdicts, sharp money signals, and live lineup tracking are in the workspace.

TB โ€” Away
Drew Rasmussen Drew Rasmussen SP
Pitcher Ks
4.5
60 ยท OVER
TOR โ€” Home
Kevin Gausman Kevin Gausman SP
Pitcher Ks
4.5
64 ยท OVER

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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