MLB Final Intelligence
Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds β Recap
July 4, 2026 Β· Great American Ball Park Β· View Preview
Game Recap
The Baltimore Orioles mounted a significant comeback, overcoming an early deficit and a pregame market favoring their opponent to secure an 8-5 upset victory over the Cincinnati Reds. Baltimore leveraged a powerful five-run fourth inning to reclaim control, turning a one-run deficit into a commanding lead after an initial advantage had slipped away.
Baltimore initially surged ahead in the opening frame when Samuel Basallo launched a three-run home run to right-center, scoring Henderson and Alonso. The Reds immediately began chipping away, as SuΓ‘rez singled home Stewart in the bottom of the first. Cincinnati then orchestrated a four-run rally in the second inning. Trevino doubled to right, bringing in Steer, before Friedl's triple scored Trevino. The go-ahead run came on De La Cruz's single to right, which allowed Friedl to cross the plate, giving Cincinnati a 4-3 lead.
The pivotal moment arrived in the top of the fourth inning, where the Orioles unleashed a five-run explosion, the largest single-inning output of the contest. Alexander's timely single to right brought home Cowser and Taveras, pushing Baltimore back into the lead. Adley Rutschman then extended the advantage with a double to right, scoring Alexander and Holliday. To cap the dominant frame, Alonso singled to left, allowing Rutschman to score and pushing the Orioles' lead to 8-4. Cincinnati managed one more run in the seventh on SuΓ‘rez's infield single that scored Stewart, but the damage inflicted in the fourth proved insurmountable.
Ultimately, Baltimore's resilience and their ability to respond with a decisive offensive burst proved to be the key factor in their road win. The five-run fourth inning underscored the Orioles' capacity to seize momentum and secure a crucial victory against a favored opponent. Following the contest, Baltimore improved its record to 55-56, while Cincinnati now stands at 52-58.
How the Prediction Fared
Pregame, the market favored the Cincinnati Reds (-136, 55% implied) over the Baltimore Orioles. Final: the Baltimore Orioles won 8β5, pulling off the upset.
Player of the Game
Turning Point
The game turned in the 4th inning, when the Baltimore Orioles scored 5 runs.
Pitching
| Pitcher | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Young W |
|
5.0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3.38 |
| Hunter Greene L |
|
3.1 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 21.60 |
| Rhett Lowder |
|
3.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5.07 |
| Andrew Kittredge |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4.91 |
| Grant Wolfram |
|
1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.15 |
| Tyler Wells S |
|
1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3.02 |
| Yennier Cano |
|
1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2.48 |
| Sam Moll |
|
0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3.93 |
Batting
| Batter | Team | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso |
|
3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jose Trevino |
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Adley Rutschman |
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Eugenio Suarez |
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Elly De La Cruz |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Samuel Basallo |
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Blaze Alexander |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| TJ Friedl |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Colton Cowser |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Gunnar Henderson |
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Taylor Ward |
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| JJ Bleday |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sal Stewart |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Spencer Steer |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
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