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MLB Final Intelligence

BOS 75-65
3 – 2
FINAL
LAD 82-57

Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers β€” Recap

August 1, 2026  Β· Dodger Stadium  Β· View Preview

πŸ“°Game Recap

Boston, entering as the underdog, edged past the favored Los Angeles Dodgers by scoring a late go-ahead run in a tight contest. Ceddanne Rafaela’s two solo home runs provided the early offensive spark for the Red Sox, who ultimately secured the decisive run in the eighth inning to break a deadlock, overcoming significant pregame odds against them.

The Red Sox immediately took the lead when Rafaela launched a leadoff homer in the top of the first inning. Los Angeles quickly responded in the bottom of the second, as T. HernΓ‘ndez hit a two-run shot to right, bringing home Freeman and putting the Dodgers ahead. However, Rafaela struck again in the next inning, sending another ball out of the park to left center, tying the game at two runs apiece.

The game remained knotted at 2-2 through seven innings, a testament to the pitching efforts on both sides, including a strong eight-inning outing from Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who struck out three despite allowing three earned runs. The crucial breakthrough for Boston came in the top of the eighth inning. With a runner on third, Wong grounded into a double play, but it allowed Monasterio to cross home plate before the inning concluded, giving the Red Sox a one-run lead they would not relinquish. This late-game execution proved to be the difference maker against a heavily favored Dodgers squad, whose pregame odds were significantly higher according to both market and analytics, which also favored Los Angeles.

Ultimately, Boston's ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities, particularly with Rafaela's power display and the timely eighth-inning run, allowed them to upset the Dodgers. The Red Sox improved their record to 59-51, while the Dodgers fell to 69-42.

#MLB #RedSox #Dodgers #CeddanneRafaela

How the Prediction Fared

⚑ Upset

Pregame, the market favored the Los Angeles Dodgers (-166, 60% implied) over the Boston Red Sox. Final: the Boston Red Sox won 3–2, pulling off the upset.

⚑ Model Missed

SportsFBI's model favored the Los Angeles Dodgers (72% confidence). Final: the Boston Red Sox won 3–2, missing the call (based on projected lineups, not yet confirmed when the model ran).

Player of the Game

Ceddanne Rafaela
At the Plate
4 AB, 2 H, 2 HR, 2 RBI
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
On the Mound
8.0 IP, 3 K, 3 ER

Linescore

123456789 RHE
BOS 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 40
LAD 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 100

Pitching

Pitcher Team IP H R ER BB K ERA
Yoshinobu Yamamoto L 8.0 4 3 3 1 3 2.76
Payton Tolle 6.0 9 2 2 2 7 3.30
Aroldis Chapman S 1.0 0 0 0 0 1 1.67
Justin Slaten W 1.0 0 0 0 0 1 4.45
Tyron Guerrero 1.0 1 0 0 0 0 2.08
Alex Vesia 1.0 0 0 0 0 1 2.61

Batting

Batter Team AB H HR RBI R BB K
Teoscar Hernandez 4 3 1 2 1 0 0
Freddie Freeman 4 3 0 0 1 0 0
Ceddanne Rafaela 4 2 2 2 2 0 0
Andruw Monasterio 3 1 0 0 1 0 0
Jarren Duran 3 1 0 0 0 0 0
Andy Pages 4 1 0 0 0 0 1
Max Muncy 4 1 0 0 0 0 3
Miguel Rojas 3 1 0 0 0 0 1
Shohei Ohtani 3 1 0 0 0 1 1

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