MLB Final Intelligence
San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Recap
September 23, 2026 · Dodger Stadium · View Preview
Game Recap
The San Diego Padres overcame pregame expectations and a favored opponent, defeating the Los Angeles Dodgers 5-1 on Tuesday night. Despite being heavy underdogs in the market and against SportsFBI’s proprietary model, which favored the Dodgers due to a perceived starting pitching advantage, the Padres methodically built a lead against Los Angeles’ ace and held on for the upset victory.
San Diego broke a scoreless tie in the fourth inning when Manny Machado launched a 409-foot homer to center field, also scoring Harris, to give the Padres a 2-0 lead. The Dodgers quickly responded in the bottom half of the inning, cutting the deficit to one when Edman hit a sacrifice fly to left, bringing home T. Hernández. The Padres extended their lead again in the fifth inning, first capitalizing on a throwing error by pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto that allowed Salas to score, with Harris reaching second and Tatis Jr. advancing to third. Machado then notched his third RBI of the night with a sacrifice fly to center, scoring Tatis Jr. to make it 4-1. The Padres added an insurance run in the ninth when Fermin singled to left, plating Taylor.
The Padres’ crucial scoring came against Yamamoto, who otherwise delivered a solid performance with six innings pitched and four strikeouts while allowing just two earned runs. However, it was the unearned run charged to Yamamoto in the fifth, following his own error, that proved especially damaging. That play, coupled with Machado’s early two-run blast, gave San Diego a cushion they never relinquished, despite the Dodgers' high-quality starting pitching that had been projected to dominate. Los Angeles, meanwhile, struggled to generate offense, managing only a single run after the Padres built their lead.
Ultimately, it was the San Diego offense's ability to execute against a top-tier pitcher, combined with disciplined relief pitching, that allowed them to secure the win. The Padres improve to 88-70, while the Dodgers fall to 97-61.
How the Prediction Fared
Pregame, the market favored the Los Angeles Dodgers (-219, 66% implied) over the San Diego Padres. Final: the San Diego Padres won 5–1, pulling off the upset.
SportsFBI's model favored the Los Angeles Dodgers (66% confidence). Final: the San Diego Padres won 5–1, missing the call.
Player of the Game
Pitching
| Pitcher | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto L |
|
6.0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2.53 |
| Robbie Ray |
|
3.1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3.59 |
| Bradgley Rodriguez W |
|
2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2.25 |
| Jack Dreyer |
|
1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3.16 |
| Kris Bubic |
|
1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.83 |
| Adrian Morejon |
|
1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.80 |
| Mason Miller |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.19 |
| Yuki Matsui |
|
1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.87 |
| Blake Treinen |
|
0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.64 |
| David Morgan |
|
0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4.02 |
Batting
| Batter | Team | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Pages |
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Teoscar Hernandez |
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. |
|
5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Tucker |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Manny Machado |
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Freddy Fermin |
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shohei Ohtani |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Will Smith |
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Austin Hays |
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ethan Salas |
|
2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ty France |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
More MLB Results — Wednesday, September 23, 2026
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