MLB Final Intelligence
St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs β Recap
August 16, 2026 Β· Wrigley Field Β· View Preview
Game Recap
The St. Louis Cardinals delivered a dominant offensive performance, highlighted by a pivotal six-run fourth inning, to defeat the favored Chicago Cubs 11-4 on Friday night. Alec Burleson led the Cardinals' charge with a three-hit outing that included a home run and four runs batted in, while Hunter Dobbins provided a solid start on the mound. St. Louis seized an early advantage, with Burleson blasting a two-run homer in the first inning and Jordan adding an RBI single in the second, establishing a 3-0 lead. The Cubs managed to cut into the deficit in the third inning when Crow-Armstrong launched a two-run shot. However, the Cardinals decisively broke the game open in the following frame, firmly taking control. The fourth inning proved to be the turning point, as the Cardinals sent ten batters to the plate en route to their six-run rally. Wetherholt drew a bases-loaded walk, a call that was upheld after a challenge, to begin the scoring. An Herrera sacrifice fly followed, before Burleson singled home two more runs, pushing his RBI total to four. Walker then capped the outburst with a towering two-run home run, giving St. Louis a commanding seven-run lead and largely negating the pregame marketβs lean toward Chicago and the SportsFBI modelβs confidence in the Cubs. Ultimately, the Cardinals' sustained offensive pressure, particularly their decisive six-run fourth inning, proved too much for Chicago to overcome. St. Louis improved its record to 63-61, while Chicago fell to 72-53.
How the Prediction Fared
Pregame, the market favored the Chicago Cubs (-157, 58% implied) over the St. Louis Cardinals. Final: the St. Louis Cardinals won 11β4, pulling off the upset.
SportsFBI's model favored the Chicago Cubs (51% confidence). Final: the St. Louis Cardinals won 11β4, missing the call.
Player of the Game
Turning Point
The game turned in the 4th inning, when the St. Louis Cardinals scored 6 runs.
Pitching
| Pitcher | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Dobbins W |
|
5.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 3.42 |
| Edward Cabrera L |
|
3.2 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 5.68 |
| Aaron Civale |
|
2.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4.94 |
| Luis Gastelum |
|
2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6.11 |
| Ryan Rolison |
|
1.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2.57 |
| Carson Kelly |
|
1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 |
| Caleb Ferguson |
|
1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4.08 |
| Gordon Graceffo |
|
1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3.26 |
| Caleb Thielbar |
|
0.2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5.54 |
| Trent Thornton |
|
0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2.58 |
Batting
| Batter | Team | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Burleson |
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Walker |
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Blaze Jordan |
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| JJ Wetherholt |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Jimmy Crooks |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong |
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Miguel Amaya |
|
3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ivan Herrera |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ian Happ |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nico Hoerner |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pedro Ramirez |
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Seiya Suzuki |
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
More MLB Results β Sunday, August 16, 2026
Sharper Picks Start Here
Live odds, Key Suspects, player props, DFS rankings, and real-time game tracking β all in one workspace built for serious bettors and DFS players.