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MLB Final Intelligence

STL 69-70
11 – 4
FINAL
CHC 78-61

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs β€” Recap

August 16, 2026  Β· Wrigley Field  Β· View Preview

πŸ“°Game Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals delivered a dominant offensive performance, highlighted by a pivotal six-run fourth inning, to defeat the favored Chicago Cubs 11-4 on Friday night. Alec Burleson led the Cardinals' charge with a three-hit outing that included a home run and four runs batted in, while Hunter Dobbins provided a solid start on the mound. St. Louis seized an early advantage, with Burleson blasting a two-run homer in the first inning and Jordan adding an RBI single in the second, establishing a 3-0 lead. The Cubs managed to cut into the deficit in the third inning when Crow-Armstrong launched a two-run shot. However, the Cardinals decisively broke the game open in the following frame, firmly taking control. The fourth inning proved to be the turning point, as the Cardinals sent ten batters to the plate en route to their six-run rally. Wetherholt drew a bases-loaded walk, a call that was upheld after a challenge, to begin the scoring. An Herrera sacrifice fly followed, before Burleson singled home two more runs, pushing his RBI total to four. Walker then capped the outburst with a towering two-run home run, giving St. Louis a commanding seven-run lead and largely negating the pregame market’s lean toward Chicago and the SportsFBI model’s confidence in the Cubs. Ultimately, the Cardinals' sustained offensive pressure, particularly their decisive six-run fourth inning, proved too much for Chicago to overcome. St. Louis improved its record to 63-61, while Chicago fell to 72-53.

#MLB #Cardinals #Cubs #AlecBurleson

How the Prediction Fared

⚑ Upset

Pregame, the market favored the Chicago Cubs (-157, 58% implied) over the St. Louis Cardinals. Final: the St. Louis Cardinals won 11–4, pulling off the upset.

⚑ Model Missed

SportsFBI's model favored the Chicago Cubs (51% confidence). Final: the St. Louis Cardinals won 11–4, missing the call.

Player of the Game

Alec Burleson
At the Plate
5 AB, 3 H, 1 HR, 4 RBI
On the Mound
5.0 IP, 7 K, 2 ER

Linescore

123456789 RHE
STL 2 1 0 6 0 0 0 2 0 11 130
CHC 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 4 60

Turning Point

The game turned in the 4th inning, when the St. Louis Cardinals scored 6 runs.

Pitching

Pitcher Team IP H R ER BB K ERA
Hunter Dobbins W 5.0 2 2 2 4 7 3.42
Edward Cabrera L 3.2 6 7 7 3 2 5.68
Aaron Civale 2.0 2 0 0 0 4 4.94
Luis Gastelum 2.0 1 0 0 0 3 6.11
Ryan Rolison 1.1 2 2 2 1 0 2.57
Carson Kelly 1.0 1 0 0 0 0 9.00
Caleb Ferguson 1.0 1 1 1 0 1 4.08
Gordon Graceffo 1.0 2 1 1 1 0 3.26
Caleb Thielbar 0.2 1 2 2 1 2 5.54
Trent Thornton 0.1 1 0 0 0 1 2.58

Batting

Batter Team AB H HR RBI R BB K
Alec Burleson 5 3 1 4 2 0 1
Jordan Walker 4 3 1 4 1 0 0
Blaze Jordan 5 2 0 1 1 0 2
JJ Wetherholt 4 2 0 1 3 1 0
Jimmy Crooks 4 2 0 0 2 1 1
Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 1 1 2 1 0 3
Miguel Amaya 3 1 1 1 1 1 1
Ivan Herrera 3 1 0 1 1 1 1
Ian Happ 3 1 0 0 0 0 0
Nico Hoerner 3 1 0 0 0 1 0
Pedro Ramirez 4 1 0 0 0 0 2
Seiya Suzuki 5 1 0 0 1 0 3

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