Pacers 107, Grizzlies 103 — NBA Recap

📰Game Recap

The Indiana Pacers secured a 107-103 victory over the Memphis Grizzlies, despite SportsFBI pregame models leaning toward Memphis at 77 percent. Indiana set the tone immediately in the opening period, outscoring Memphis 32-24 behind sharp shooting from Andrew Nembhard and Pascal Siakam. Nembhard finished with 22 points, 5 assists, and two 3-pointers on 8-of-15 shooting, while Siakam added 20 points and two 3-pointers on an efficient 8-of-13 clip. Aaron Nesmith also contributed significantly to the Pacers' offense with 16 points and two 3-pointers.

Memphis mounted a steady comeback as the game progressed, taking advantage of strong scoring outputs from Cedric Coward and Ty Jerome. Coward paced the Grizzlies with 23 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, and four 3-pointers on 8-of-19 shooting, while Jerome matched him with 23 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, and two 3-pointers on 10-of-20 shooting. The Grizzlies chipped away at the deficit by winning the second quarter 28-22 and the third quarter 30-26, shifting momentum away from Indiana's early advantage.

Leading by just two points entering the final frame, the Pacers managed to fend off the Grizzlies by taking the fourth quarter 27-21. Indiana's late-game execution held off Memphis's second-half surge, sealing the 107-103 final score. The loss ultimately defied the heavy pregame projections favoring the Grizzlies.

#Pacers #Grizzlies #NBABasketball #IndianaPacers #MemphisGrizzlies

How the Prediction Fared

⚡ Model Missed

SportsFBI's model, locked before tip-off, favored the Memphis Grizzlies (77% confidence). It gave a 20% chance of a 20+ point margin; the game was decided by 4 points.

💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line

Spread · MEM -5.5 IND covered Won by 4

Total · 228.5 Under 210 combined

Moneyline IND +184 · MEM -220 MEM favored

Line movementOpening line → close

Spread (MEM) -5.5-5.5 No move

Total 230.5228.5 -2

Moneyline (MEM) -250-220 +30

Standouts

Top Scorer · MEM

Cedric Coward

23 PTS, 9 REB, 4 AST, 4 3PM · 8-19 FG

Scoring · MEM

Ty Jerome

23 PTS, 4 REB, 3 AST, 2 3PM · 10-20 FG

Scoring · IND

Andrew Nembhard

22 PTS, 2 REB, 5 AST, 2 3PM · 8-15 FG

Season highs

Cedric Coward · Season-high 23 pointsZach Edey · Season-high 13 rebounds

Every player's line is in the box score below; the play-by-play is available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

📊 Game Flow

IND 9 largest lead Q2 11:10 (IND 34, MEM 25) · 8-0 run, Q3 0:31–Q4 9:20

MEM 8 largest lead Q3 7:39 (IND 58, MEM 66) · 7-0 run, Q1 8:49–Q1 7:02

Swings 16 lead changes Tied 9 times

Ahead for good: Obi Toppin makes 1-foot dunk (Quenton Jackson assists) (Q4 4:32, IND 92, MEM 91).

Clutch timeEvery score of the final five minutes

Q4 3:47 Quenton Jackson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND · IND 97, MEM 93
Q4 3:28 Cedric Coward makes driving layup (Jaylen Wells assists)MEM · IND 97, MEM 95
Q4 2:55 Larry Nance Jr. makes 1-foot dunk (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND · IND 99, MEM 95
Q4 2:12 Cedric Coward makes free throw 1 of 2MEM · IND 99, MEM 96
Q4 1:47 Pascal Siakam makes 17-foot jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND · IND 101, MEM 96
Q4 1:26 Zach Edey makes free throw 1 of 2MEM · IND 101, MEM 97
Q4 1:26 Zach Edey makes free throw 2 of 2MEM · IND 101, MEM 98
Q4 1:04 Pascal Siakam makes free throw 1 of 1IND · IND 104, MEM 98
Q4 1:04 Pascal Siakam makes 12-foot pullup jump shotIND · IND 103, MEM 98
Q4 0:46 Cameron Boozer makes 25-foot three pointer (Ty Jerome assists)MEM · IND 104, MEM 101
Q4 0:28 Ty Jerome makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Zach Edey assists)MEM · IND 104, MEM 103
Q4 0:14 Aaron Nesmith makes 23-foot shot (Pascal Siakam assists)IND · IND 107, MEM 103

Linescore

	1	2	3	4		T
IND	32	22	26	27		107
MEM	24	28	30	21		103

🧮 How They Scored

INDMEM

Four factorsHighlighted side won the factor

52.3%Effective FG%51.6%

13.6%Turnover %16.3%

18.6%Offensive rebound %27.1%

0.193Free-throw rate0.165

Box Score

Indiana Pacers

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FG	3PT	FT	+/-
Andrew Nembhard G-F	38	22	2	5	1	1	2	8-15	2-7	4-4	-4
Aaron Nesmith G-F	30	16	2	2	3	1	1	7-16	2-6	0-1	0
Pascal Siakam F	30	20	4	2	2	1	0	8-13	2-5	2-2	+3
Braden Smith G	24	10	1	5	2	2	3	5-9	0-1	0-0	+2
Quenton Jackson G	23	13	7	2	2	0	2	4-9	3-5	2-2	+15
Obi Toppin F	19	11	5	1	0	0	3	3-6	1-2	4-4	+1
Ivica Zubac C	19	1	4	2	0	0	2	0-5	0-0	1-2	-22
Jarace Walker F	17	2	8	1	0	0	1	1-4	0-2	0-0	-2
Larry Nance Jr. F	14	4	4	1	0	0	0	2-3	0-1	0-0	+18
Jay Huff F-C	14	6	3	1	0	1	0	2-4	2-4	0-0	+10
Kobe Brown F	7	0	1	0	0	0	0	0-2	0-2	0-0	-2
Jalen Slawson F	6	2	2	1	0	1	1	0-2	0-2	2-2	+1

Memphis Grizzlies

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FG	3PT	FT	+/-
Cedric Coward G	33	23	9	4	4	0	3	8-19	4-12	3-4	-2
Cameron Boozer F	33	10	6	4	1	0	4	4-14	2-5	0-0	-4
Ty Jerome G	29	23	4	3	0	1	4	10-20	2-10	1-2	+11
Zach Edey C	25	11	13	1	0	2	2	4-6	0-0	3-5	+18
Jerami Grant F	24	11	1	2	1	0	0	4-10	2-5	1-2	-11
Cam Spencer G	24	7	6	9	1	0	2	3-4	1-2	0-0	-5
Jaylen Wells F	22	0	1	3	0	1	1	0-3	0-3	0-0	0
Kris Murray F	15	5	1	1	0	1	1	2-4	1-3	0-0	-3
Quinten Post C	11	2	1	0	1	0	1	1-3	0-2	0-0	-11
Isaiah Stewart F-C	10	6	1	0	0	0	0	3-4	0-0	0-0	-2
GG Jackson F	7	1	2	0	0	0	1	0-1	0-1	1-2	-7
Olivier-Maxence Prosper F	7	4	3	1	0	0	0	2-3	0-1	0-0	-4

🎟️ Player Props Results Consensus lines

Player	Prop	Line	Actual	Result
Ty Jerome MEM	Points	22.5	23	Over
	Rebounds	3.5	4	Over
	Assists	6.5	3	Under
	3-pointers	2.5	2	Under
	Pts + Reb	26.5	27	Over
	Reb + Ast	9.5	7	Under
	Pts + Reb + Ast	32.5	30	Under
Cedric Coward MEM	Points	12.5	23	Over
	Rebounds	6.5	9	Over
	Assists	2.5	4	Over
	3-pointers	1.5	4	Over
	Reb + Ast	9.5	13	Over
	Pts + Reb + Ast	22.5	36	Over
Andrew Nembhard IND	Points	17.5	22	Over
	Rebounds	3.5	2	Under
	Assists	7.5	5	Under
	3-pointers	2.5	2	Under
	Pts + Reb	20.5	24	Over
	Reb + Ast	11.5	7	Under
	Pts + Reb + Ast	28.5	29	Over
Pascal Siakam IND	Points	22.5	20	Under
	Rebounds	6.5	4	Under
	Assists	4.5	2	Under
	3-pointers	1.5	2	Over
	Pts + Reb	29.5	24	Under
	Reb + Ast	10.5	6	Under
	Pts + Reb + Ast	33.5	26	Under
Aaron Nesmith IND	Points	12.5	16	Over
	3-pointers	1.5	2	Over
Jerami Grant MEM	Points	10.5	11	Over
	Rebounds	2.5	1	Under
	3-pointers	1.5	2	Over