NBA Final Intelligence

OKC 8-2
103 – 123
FINAL
POR 6-3

Oklahoma City Thunder 103, Portland Trail Blazers 123 — Recap

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📰Game Recap

The Oklahoma City Thunder established an early edge, taking a 27-26 lead through the opening quarter of play. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander paced the effort with 26 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 assists, though his 8-of-22 shooting efficiency signaled a difficult night from the field. Jared McCain added 21 points with 3 rebounds, 3 assists, and 4 conversions from beyond the arc on 6-of-12 shooting, keeping the Thunder competitive through the first half.

Portland responded immediately in the second quarter, matching Oklahoma City's 32 points with 33 of their own to maintain a razor-thin margin at halftime. Damian Lillard anchored the Trail Blazers' attack with 25 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, and 4 triples on an 8-of-15 shooting performance. Deni Avdija fueled the offense by distributing 8 assists to go with 24 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 threes, also shooting 8-of-15 from the floor.

The game decisively turned in the third quarter as Portland outscored Oklahoma City 38-21, blowing open a contest that had been tightly contested until intermission. Sidy Cissoko contributed 17 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 shots from deep on 5-of-14 shooting to help widen the gap. Portland sustained their momentum into the final period, outproducing the Thunder 26-23 to complete a 123-103 victory that bypassed SportsFBI's pregame analytics model, which had leaned toward Oklahoma City at 68%.

#TrailBlazers #Thunder #NBA #Basketball

How the Prediction Fared

⚡ Model Missed

SportsFBI's model, locked before tip-off, favored the Oklahoma City Thunder (68% confidence). It gave a 15% chance of a 20+ point margin; the game was decided by 20 points.

💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line

Spread · OKC -1.5 POR covered Won by 20
Total · 226.5 Under 226 combined
Moneyline OKC -124 · POR +106 OKC favored
Line movementOpening line → close
Spread (POR) +1.5+1.5 No move
Total 226.5226.5 No move
Moneyline (POR) +100+106 +6

Standouts

Top Scorer · OKC
26 PTS, 8 REB, 3 AST · 8-22 FG
Scoring · POR
25 PTS, 3 REB, 3 AST, 4 3PM · 8-15 FG
Scoring · POR
24 PTS, 6 REB, 8 AST, 2 3PM · 8-15 FG

Every player's line is in the box score below; the play-by-play is available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

📊 Game Flow

OKC 5 largest lead Q1 1:09 (OKC 27, POR 22) · 8-0 run, Q1 5:23–Q1 3:57
POR 22 largest lead Q4 4:34 (OKC 96, POR 118) · 9-0 run, Q3 6:49–Q3 5:31
Swings 14 lead changes Tied 14 times

Ahead for good: Deni Avdija makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Q3 6:49, OKC 71, POR 72).

Linescore

1234 T
OKC 27322123 103
POR 26333826 123

🧮 How They Scored

OKCPOR
Four factorsHighlighted side won the factor
48.8%Effective FG%54.4%
11.1%Turnover %7.2%
25.0%Offensive rebound %24.4%
0.321Free-throw rate0.286

Box Score

Oklahoma City Thunder

Player MINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTOFG3PTFT+/-
Jared McCain G 3121330016-124-75-6-14
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander G 2926830128-220-410-11-17
Ajay Mitchell G 2814331036-100-12-2-18
Aday Mara C 26101020105-90-00-1-14
Isaiah Hartenstein F-C 247950103-60-01-2-7
Micah Peavy G-F 210201000-40-20-2-11
Nique Clifford G 204410012-40-10-0-4
Kenrich Williams G-F 193200001-31-10-0-15
Alex Caruso G 195210131-51-32-2-5
Bennett Stirtz G 1913111025-82-31-1+3
Brooks Barnhizer F 50111000-10-00-0+2

Portland Trail Blazers

Player MINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTOFG3PTFT+/-
Deni Avdija F 3424681038-152-46-8+21
Sidy Cissoko G 3417331005-143-104-4+9
Toumani Camara F 3012330003-92-74-4+18
Donovan Clingan C 2671330213-61-20-0+16
Jrue Holiday G 2611120014-82-61-1+14
Damian Lillard G 2425331008-154-105-5+20
Scoot Henderson G 2311140013-123-52-2+2
Robert Williams III C-F 156400013-30-00-0+5
Chris Youngblood G 148101002-52-42-20
Branden Carlson C 82500201-30-10-0-1
Hansen Yang C 50100000-00-00-0-2
Micah Potter F 50300010-10-10-0-2

⚔️ Season Series & What's Next

2026-27 season series OKC 0 – 1 POR
Last 24 meetings · since 2020-21 OKC 20 – 4 POR
Previous meetingsOpen the recap
After this game
Oklahoma City Thunder 8-3 L1 L10 7-3 Next game: @ POR · Wed, Nov 11
Portland Trail Blazers 7-3 W1 L10 7-3 Next game: vs OKC · Wed, Nov 11

🔍 Key Suspects Results

5 of 8 graded picks hit. Pushes and voided picks are not counted.

OKC — Away
Aday Mara C Pts+Reb 14.5 OVER HIT Actual 20
Bennett Stirtz G Points 6.5 OVER HIT Actual 13
Kenrich Williams Kenrich Williams G-F Rebounds 4.5 UNDER HIT Actual 2
Alex Caruso Alex Caruso G Points 6.5 OVER MISS Actual 5
Jared McCain Jared McCain G Points 10 HIT Actual 21
POR — Home
Jrue Holiday Jrue Holiday G Pts+Reb+Ast 21.5 UNDER HIT Actual 14
Damian Lillard Damian Lillard G Rebounds 3.5 OVER MISS Actual 3
Donovan Clingan Donovan Clingan C Points 10 MISS Actual 7

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