NFL Matchup Intelligence
Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers
October 11, 2026 ยท 1:00 PM ET ยท Lambeau Field
CHI 3-1
ยท
GB 2-2
Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Chicago Bears face Green Bay Packers in Week 5 at Lambeau Field. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Chicago Bears enter with a 3-1 record across 4 completed games in this competition phase. They average 28.0 points scored and 16.3 allowed. Their current streak is 2 wins.
Green Bay Packers enter with a 2-2 record across 4 completed games in this competition phase. They average 18.3 points scored and 26.3 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Chicago Bearsโs 28.0 points per game against a Green Bay Packers defense allowing 26.3. In the other direction, Green Bay Packers average 18.3 against Chicago Bearsโs 16.3 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
The opening market has Green Bay Packers favored by 3 points and a total of 49.5 points. These are market expectations, separate from the modelโs projected lean.
Chicago Bears have injury designations to monitor: Jonah Jackson (G) โ Questionable; D'Andre Swift (RB) โ Questionable; Joe Thuney (G) โ Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Green Bay Packers have injury designations to monitor: Aaron Banks (G) โ Questionable; Anthony Belton (OT) โ Questionable; Lukas Van Ness (DE) โ Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Green Bay Packers are Home field / environment; Key injury availability.
The strongest model adjustments toward Chicago Bears are Record quality; Third-down efficiency.
The current model sees a closely balanced matchup with no strong projected edge.
- ๐ Record: Chicago Bears 3-1
- ๐ Record: Green Bay Packers 2-2
- ๐ Market (opening): Green Bay Packers favored by 3 points; a total of 49.5 points
- ๐ค๏ธ Weather: 73.1ยฐF, 9.4 mph wind
- ๐ฎ Projected score: CHI 24, GB 22
SportsFBI Model
โ๏ธ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
GBH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
GB home field | GB 7 days / CHI 7 days
CHIA Record quality +0.50 Moderate
GB 2-2 ยท CHI 3-1
GBH Key injury availability +0.50 Weak
GB 0 unavailable starters ยท CHI 1
CHIA Third-down efficiency +0.45 Strong
GB OFF 26.1% / DEF 48.2% | CHI 47.4% / 23.7% | PBP 55%/21%/14% | 50%/60%/33%
CHIA Run-game matchup +0.44 Moderate
GB 3.2 rush Y/A / 4.2 allowed | CHI 4.9 / 4.9 | PBP 70% stuff avoided | 84% stuff avoided
CHIA Game-script tendencies +0.43 Moderate
57% neutral pass / 57 plays | 50% / 71
CHIA Raw scoring differential +0.31 Moderate
GB 18.3 PPG ยท CHI 28.0 PPG | GB 26.3 PA/G ยท CHI 16.3 PA/G
GBH Early-down efficiency +0.23 Weak
43% / 43% allowed | 43% / 48% allowed
GBH Explosive-play differential +0.22 Weak
7% / 4% allowed | 7% / 6% allowed
CHIA Recent form +0.15 Weak
GB W1 ยท CHI W2
CHIA Schedule strength +0.15 Moderate
GB 49% opp wins ยท CHI 56%
CHIA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.13 Weak
47% / 86% allowed | 42% / 56% allowed
CHIA OL vs DL matchup +0.11 Weak
GB OL sack 4.9% / DEF sack 7.9% | CHI 5.0% / 9.2%
CHIA Pass defense +0.09 Weak
GB 5.8 net Y/A / 67.5% CMP / 89.8 RATE | CHI 6.6 / 58.6% / 84.4
CHIA Turnover differential +0.08 Weak
GB 1.5 GIVE / 1.0 TAKE | CHI 1.3 / 1.5
GBH Special teams efficiency +0.05 Weak
GB FG 85.7% / NET PUNT 45.6 | CHI 87.5% / 45.8
GBH Starting QB efficiency +0.04 Weak
Jordan Love (2026) 56.5% CMP / 6.8 Y/A / 5.2% TD / 1.9% INT / 86.5 RATE ยท Tyson Bagent (2026) 69.8% CMP / 7.5 Y/A / 0.0% TD / 2.3% INT / 81.7 RATE
Betting Lines DraftKings
๐ Key Suspects
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
๐ More NFL Games โ Sunday, October 11, 2026
See the Full Analysis
All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.