NFL Matchup Intelligence
Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins
October 11, 2026 ยท 1:00 PM ET ยท Hard Rock Stadium
CIN 2-2
ยท
MIA 0-4
Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Cincinnati Bengals face Miami Dolphins in Week 5 at Hard Rock Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Cincinnati Bengals enter with a 2-2 record across 4 completed games in this competition phase. They average 24.3 points scored and 21.3 allowed. Their current streak is 2 losses.
Miami Dolphins enter with a 0-4 record across 4 completed games in this competition phase. They average 11.5 points scored and 25.3 allowed. Their current streak is 4 losses.
The scoring matchup puts Cincinnati Bengalsโs 24.3 points per game against a Miami Dolphins defense allowing 25.3. In the other direction, Miami Dolphins average 11.5 against Cincinnati Bengalsโs 21.3 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
The opening market has Cincinnati Bengals favored by 5.5 points and a total of 49.5 points. These are market expectations, separate from the modelโs projected lean.
Cincinnati Bengals have injury designations to monitor: Ja'Marr Chase (WR) โ Questionable; Bryan Cook (S) โ Questionable; Tee Higgins (WR) โ Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Miami Dolphins have injury designations to monitor: Tucker Addington (LS) โ Questionable; Chris Bell (WR) โ Questionable; JuJu Brents (CB) โ Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Miami Dolphins are Home field / environment; Schedule strength.
The strongest model adjustments toward Cincinnati Bengals are Starting QB efficiency; Record quality.
The current model leans toward CIN at 72.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- ๐ Record: Cincinnati Bengals 2-2
- ๐ Record: Miami Dolphins 0-4
- ๐ Market (opening): Cincinnati Bengals favored by 5.5 points; a total of 49.5 points
- ๐ค๏ธ Weather: 91.5ยฐF, 11.3 mph wind
- ๐ฎ Projected score: CIN 26, MIA 16
SportsFBI Model
โ๏ธ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
CINA Starting QB efficiency +1.0 Moderate
Malik Willis (2026) 56.3% CMP / 6.9 Y/A / 1.0% TD / 1.9% INT / 73.0 RATE ยท Joe Burrow (2026) 71.3% CMP / 7.5 Y/A / 4.5% TD / 1.9% INT / 99.5 RATE
CINA Record quality +1.0 Very Strong
MIA 0-4 ยท CIN 2-2
MIAH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
MIA home field | MIA 7 days / CIN 7 days
CINA OL vs DL matchup +0.65 Moderate
MIA OL sack 9.6% / DEF sack 3.4% | CIN 5.4% / 9.0%
CINA Early-down efficiency +0.61 Moderate
29% / 47% allowed | 46% / 44% allowed
MIAH Schedule strength +0.50 Very Strong
MIA 94% opp wins ยท CIN 36%
CINA Pass defense +0.49 Moderate
MIA 7.7 net Y/A / 77.9% CMP / 110.9 RATE | CIN 6.4 / 63.8% / 93.9
CINA Game-script tendencies +0.45 Moderate
48% neutral pass / 49 plays | 63% / 60
CINA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.42 Strong
33% / 65% allowed | 50% / 31% allowed
MIAH Explosive-play differential +0.32 Weak
5% / 6% allowed | 6% / 8% allowed
CINA Recent form +0.30 Moderate
MIA L4 ยท CIN L2
MIAH Run-game matchup +0.21 Weak
MIA 4.3 rush Y/A / 3.6 allowed | CIN 3.6 / 4.5 | PBP 81% stuff avoided | 79% stuff avoided
CINA Raw scoring differential +0.21 Weak
MIA 11.5 PPG ยท CIN 24.3 PPG | MIA 25.3 PA/G ยท CIN 21.3 PA/G
CINA Special teams efficiency +0.07 Weak
MIA FG 75.0% / NET PUNT 38.1 | CIN 100.0% / 39.2
CINA Third-down efficiency +0.06 Weak
MIA OFF 38.0% / DEF 46.7% | CIN 45.3% / 44.0% | PBP 57%/71%/20% | 56%/60%/35%
CINA Turnover differential +0.06 Weak
MIA 1.3 GIVE / 0.8 TAKE | CIN 1.3 / 1.3
Betting Lines DraftKings
๐ Key Suspects
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
๐ More NFL Games โ Sunday, October 11, 2026
See the Full Analysis
All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.