NFL Matchup Intelligence
Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots
October 11, 2026 ยท 1:00 PM ET ยท Gillette Stadium
LV 3-1
ยท
NE 2-2
Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Las Vegas Raiders face New England Patriots in Week 5 at Gillette Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Las Vegas Raiders enter with a 3-1 record across 4 completed games in this competition phase. They average 28.8 points scored and 21.0 allowed.
New England Patriots enter with a 2-2 record across 4 completed games in this competition phase. They average 16.3 points scored and 19.3 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Las Vegas Raidersโs 28.8 points per game against a New England Patriots defense allowing 19.3. In the other direction, New England Patriots average 16.3 against Las Vegas Raidersโs 21.0 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
The opening market has New England Patriots favored by 8.5 points and a total of 44.5 points. These are market expectations, separate from the modelโs projected lean.
Las Vegas Raiders have injury designations to monitor: Spencer Burford (G) โ Questionable; Ashton Jeanty (RB) โ Questionable; Jalen Nailor (WR) โ Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
New England Patriots have injury designations to monitor: Christian Barmore (DT) โ Questionable; Carlton Davis III (CB) โ Questionable; Christian Elliss (LB) โ Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward New England Patriots are Home field / environment; Schedule strength.
The strongest model adjustments toward Las Vegas Raiders are Starting QB efficiency; OL vs DL matchup.
The current model leans toward NE at 66.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- ๐ Record: Las Vegas Raiders 3-1
- ๐ Record: New England Patriots 2-2
- ๐ Market (opening): New England Patriots favored by 8.5 points; a total of 44.5 points
- ๐ค๏ธ Weather: 61.4ยฐF, 8.8 mph wind
- ๐ฎ Projected score: LV 21, NE 24
SportsFBI Model
โ๏ธ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
NEH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
NE home field | NE 7 days / LV 7 days
LVA Starting QB efficiency +0.93 Moderate
Drake Maye (2026) 62.4% CMP / 7.3 Y/A / 3.4% TD / 6.0% INT / 71.0 RATE ยท Kirk Cousins (2026) 64.6% CMP / 7.1 Y/A / 7.6% TD / 2.8% INT / 99.5 RATE
LVA OL vs DL matchup +0.56 Moderate
NE OL sack 7.5% / DEF sack 6.0% | LV 3.4% / 8.7%
LVA Record quality +0.50 Moderate
NE 2-2 ยท LV 3-1
NEH Schedule strength +0.50 Very Strong
NE 69% opp wins ยท LV 31%
NEH Early-down efficiency +0.39 Weak
43% / 43% allowed | 41% / 47% allowed
NEH Recent form +0.30 Moderate
NE W1 ยท LV L1
NEH Explosive-play differential +0.30 Weak
6% / 5% allowed | 5% / 6% allowed
LVA Special teams efficiency +0.18 Moderate
NE FG 71.4% / NET PUNT 45.0 | LV 100.0% / 46.7
LVA Pass defense +0.14 Weak
NE 5.7 net Y/A / 65.1% CMP / 86.8 RATE | LV 5.9 / 58.7% / 85.8
LVA Raw scoring differential +0.14 Weak
NE 16.3 PPG ยท LV 28.8 PPG | NE 19.3 PA/G ยท LV 21.0 PA/G
LVA Turnover differential +0.12 Weak
NE 2.5 GIVE / 1.3 TAKE | LV 1.5 / 2.3
NEH Run-game matchup +0.11 Weak
NE 3.9 rush Y/A / 4.4 allowed | LV 3.1 / 5.2 | PBP 79% stuff avoided | 68% stuff avoided
LVA Game-script tendencies +0.11 Weak
51% neutral pass / 58 plays | 57% / 65
NEH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.05 Weak
44% / 58% allowed | 60% / 77% allowed
NEH Third-down efficiency +0.02 Weak
NE OFF 34.6% / DEF 38.3% | LV 39.6% / 40.4% | PBP 54%/44%/22% | 55%/57%/28%
Betting Lines DraftKings
๐ Key Suspects
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
๐ More NFL Games โ Sunday, October 11, 2026
See the Full Analysis
All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.