NFL Matchup Intelligence
Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals
October 11, 2026 ยท 4:25 PM ET ยท State Farm Stadium
DET 2-2
ยท
ARI 1-3
Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Detroit Lions face Arizona Cardinals in Week 5 at State Farm Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Detroit Lions enter with a 2-2 record across 4 completed games in this competition phase. They average 29.8 points scored and 31.8 allowed.
Arizona Cardinals enter with a 1-3 record across 4 completed games in this competition phase. They average 21.8 points scored and 29.3 allowed. Their current streak is 3 losses.
The scoring matchup puts Detroit Lionsโs 29.8 points per game against a Arizona Cardinals defense allowing 29.3. In the other direction, Arizona Cardinals average 21.8 against Detroit Lionsโs 31.8 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
The opening market has Detroit Lions favored by 8.5 points and a total of 48.5 points. These are market expectations, separate from the modelโs projected lean.
Detroit Lions have injury designations to monitor: Tyleik Williams (DT) โ Questionable; Ben Bartch (G) โ Questionable; DJ Wonnum (LB) โ Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Arizona Cardinals have injury designations to monitor: Walter Nolen III (DT) โ Questionable; Andrew Wingard (S) โ Questionable; Karson Sharar (LB) โ Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Arizona Cardinals are Home field / environment; Schedule strength.
The strongest model adjustments toward Detroit Lions are Starting QB efficiency; Record quality.
The current model leans toward DET at 71.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- ๐ Record: Detroit Lions 2-2
- ๐ Record: Arizona Cardinals 1-3
- ๐ Market (opening): Detroit Lions favored by 8.5 points; a total of 48.5 points
- ๐ค๏ธ Weather: 82.5ยฐF, 14.4 mph wind
- ๐ฎ Projected score: DET 31, ARI 24
SportsFBI Model
โ๏ธ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
DETA Starting QB efficiency +1.0 Moderate
Jacoby Brissett (2026) 67.8% CMP / 5.4 Y/A / 3.9% TD / 2.6% INT / 83.2 RATE ยท Jared Goff (2026) 67.7% CMP / 7.5 Y/A / 5.6% TD / 0.0% INT / 108.6 RATE
ARIH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
ARI home field | ARI 7 days / DET 7 days
DETA Record quality +0.50 Moderate
ARI 1-3 ยท DET 2-2
DETA Key injury availability +0.50 Weak
ARI 1 unavailable starters ยท DET 0
ARIH Schedule strength +0.38 Strong
ARI 63% opp wins ยท DET 44%
DETA Recent form +0.30 Moderate
ARI L3 ยท DET L1
DETA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.23 Moderate
57% / 77% allowed | 72% / 76% allowed
ARIH Game-script tendencies +0.22 Weak
57% neutral pass / 65 plays | 58% / 63
DETA Run-game matchup +0.11 Weak
ARI 3.9 rush Y/A / 4.2 allowed | DET 4.2 / 4.4 | PBP 79% stuff avoided | 80% stuff avoided
DETA Raw scoring differential +0.08 Weak
ARI 21.8 PPG ยท DET 29.8 PPG | ARI 29.3 PA/G ยท DET 31.8 PA/G
DETA OL vs DL matchup +0.06 Weak
ARI OL sack 4.4% / DEF sack 6.8% | DET 4.7% / 8.3%
ARIH Third-down efficiency +0.06 Weak
ARI OFF 39.3% / DEF 45.5% | DET 39.1% / 52.8% | PBP 72%/38%/21% | 54%/67%/19%
DETA Pass defense +0.04 Weak
ARI 8.0 net Y/A / 63.3% CMP / 114.9 RATE | DET 6.8 / 69.7% / 110.4
DETA Special teams efficiency +0.03 Weak
ARI FG 88.9% / NET PUNT 42.2 | DET 100.0% / 43.4
ARIH Early-down efficiency +0.03 Weak
48% / 43% allowed | 53% / 49% allowed
DETA Explosive-play differential +0.03 Weak
2% / 7% allowed | 6% / 9% allowed
ARIH Turnover differential +0.01 Weak
ARI 1.0 GIVE / 1.8 TAKE | DET 0.3 / 1.0
Betting Lines DraftKings
๐ Key Suspects
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
NFL model weights are provisional -- see the workspace for the full factor breakdown and history.
๐ More NFL Games โ Sunday, October 11, 2026
See the Full Analysis
All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.