NFL Final Intelligence

WSH 3-5
24 – 21
FINAL
NYG 5-3

Washington Commanders 24, New York Giants 21 — Recap

 · MetLife Stadium  · Recap published  · View Preview

📰Game Recap

Defying the analytics and erasing a fourth-quarter deficit, Washington secured a 24-21 road upset over the New York Giants. Despite the pregame market pointing toward the hosts and SportsFBI's proprietary model heavily favoring New York on home turf, the visiting side dismantled those projections by capitalizing through the air when it mattered most.

Points proved difficult to generate early before a flurry in the second quarter broke open the matchup. Drew Stevens connected on a 46-yard field goal for the visitors, which was immediately answered by a 1-yard rushing touchdown from Cam Skattebo. Washington reclaimed the advantage before halftime when Jayden Daniels found Ben Sinnott for a 1-yard score, sending the game into the break with a 10-7 visitors' lead.

Momentum swung back and forth through a tense second half. Skattebo struck again with a 13-yard scamper in the third quarter to put New York back on top, only for Daniels to answer right away by hitting Antonio Williams from 31 yards out. When J.J. McCarthy connected with Isaiah Likely on a staggering 66-yard touchdown strike in the final period, the Giants surged ahead 21-17 and appeared poised to validate the 62% confidence pregame model.

Instead, the decisive blow belonged entirely to the visitors' aerial attack. Daniels orchestrated one final scoring drive, capping it with a 32-yard touchdown pass to Stefon Diggs that snatched back the lead for good and completed the upset. Washington leaves with a 3-5-1 record, while New York falls to 5-3-1.

#NFL #WashingtonCommanders #NewYorkGiants #JaydenDaniels #StefonDiggs

How the Prediction Fared

⚡ Upset

Pregame, the market favored the New York Giants (-118, 52% implied) over the Washington Commanders. Final: the Washington Commanders won 24–21, pulling off the upset.

⚡ Model Missed

SportsFBI's model favored the New York Giants (62% confidence). Final: the Washington Commanders won 24–21, missing the call.

💵 Betting Result DraftKings closing line

Spread · NYG -1.5 WSH covered Won by 3
Total · 40.5 Over 45 combined
Moneyline WSH +105 · NYG -125 NYG favored
Line movementOpening line → close
Spread (NYG) -1.5-1.5 No move
Total 44.540.5 -4
Moneyline (NYG) -118-125 -7

Standouts

J.J. McCarthy
Passing
J.J. McCarthy
23/36, 293 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
Cam Skattebo
Rushing
Cam Skattebo
18 CAR, 78 YDS, 2 TD
Isaiah Likely
Receiving
Isaiah Likely
9 REC, 127 YDS, 1 TD
Season highs
J.J. McCarthy · Season-high 293 passing yardsIsaiah Likely · Season-high 127 receiving yardsStefon Diggs · Season-high 83 receiving yardsJayden Daniels · Season-high 3 passing touchdowns

Every player's passing, rushing, receiving and defensive line is in the box score below.

📊 Win Probability

WSH 3 largest lead Q2 14:07 (WSH 3, NYG 0)
NYG 4 largest lead Q2 2:35 (WSH 3, NYG 7)
Swings 6 lead changes Tied 0 times
Biggest swingsPlays that moved win probability the most
  • Q4 0:57 (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Daniels pass short middle to S.Diggs for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way.WSH +49.3 win probability · WSH 24, NYG 21
  • Q4 8:13 (Shotgun) J.McCarthy pass deep middle to I.Likely for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-B.Mann, Holder-J.Stout.NYG +36.7 win probability · WSH 17, NYG 21
  • Q4 0:34 (Shotgun) J.McCarthy pass deep right intended for M.Nabers INTERCEPTED by R.Douglas at WAS 11. R.Douglas to WAS 11 for no gain (M.Nabers).WSH +19.5 win probability · WSH 24, NYG 21
Scoring summary
  • Q2 14:07 D.Stevens 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way. WSH · Field Goal Good · WSH 3, NYG 0
  • Q2 2:35 A.Stinnie reported in as eligible. C.Skattebo right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-B.Mann, Holder-J.Stout. NYG · Rushing Touchdown · WSH 3, NYG 7
  • Q2 0:05 (Shotgun) J.Daniels pass short middle to B.Sinnott for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [A.Carter]. D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way. WSH · Passing Touchdown · WSH 10, NYG 7
  • Q3 10:22 (Shotgun) C.Skattebo right end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-B.Mann, Holder-J.Stout. NYG · Rushing Touchdown · WSH 10, NYG 14
  • Q3 6:56 J.Daniels pass short right to A.Williams for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way. WSH · Passing Touchdown · WSH 17, NYG 14
  • Q4 8:13 (Shotgun) J.McCarthy pass deep middle to I.Likely for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-B.Mann, Holder-J.Stout. NYG · Passing Touchdown · WSH 17, NYG 21
  • Q4 0:57 (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Daniels pass short middle to S.Diggs for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way. WSH · Passing Touchdown · WSH 24, NYG 21

Linescore

1234 T
WSH 0 10 7 7 24
NYG 0 7 7 7 21

Biggest Quarter

The Washington Commanders scored 10 points in the 2nd quarter — the biggest single quarter of the game.

📋 Team Stats

WSHNYG
340Total yards399
5.2Yards per play6.2
235Passing yards283
105Rushing yards116
20First downs21
50%Third down %33%
100%Red zone scoring %50%
2Turnovers2
1Sacks allowed1
17Penalty yards62
30.4Possession (min)29.6
Conditions
Outdoor 49°F Wind 9 mph, gusts 30 64% precipitation Ideal passing Moderate kicking difficulty

Box Score

Passing

Player Team C/ATTYDSTDINT
Jayden Daniels QB 23/3324932
J.J. McCarthy QB 23/3629311

Rushing

Player Team CARYDSTD
Rachaad White RB 11470
Jayden Daniels QB 10280
Austin Ekeler RB 9260
Robert Henry Jr. RB 240
Cam Skattebo RB 18782
J.J. McCarthy QB 6340
Devin Singletary RB 130
Jameis Winston QB 210

Receiving

Player Team RECTGTYDSTD
Stefon Diggs WR 610831
Ben Sinnott TE 44421
Antonio Williams WR 22421
Treylon Burks WR 23270
Austin Ekeler RB 44260
Chig Okonkwo TE 48240
Rachaad White RB 1250
Isaiah Likely TE 9111271
Malachi Fields WR 34620
Malik Nabers WR 57440
Cam Skattebo RB 34440
Theo Johnson TE 1380
Darnell Mooney WR 2580

Defense

Player Team TKLSACKINTPD
Sonny Styles LB 130—0
Jeremy Reaves S 90—1
Nick Cross S 60—0
Frankie Luvu LB 60—0
Percy Butler S 50—1
Quan Martin S 50—0
Amik Robertson CB 50—1
Trey Amos CB 40—0
Odafe Oweh LB 41—0
Shy Tuttle DT 30—0
K'Lavon Chaisson LB 20—0
Kain Medrano LB 20—0
Tyler Owens S 20—0
Tim Settle DT 20—0
Deatrich Wise Jr. DE 20—0
Joshua Josephs LB 10—0
Ale Kaho LB 10—0
Jer'Zhan Newton DT 10—0
Chig Okonkwo TE 10—0
Charles Omenihu DE 10—0
Rasul Douglas CB 0011
Arvell Reese LB 130—0
Micah McFadden LB 100—0
Kayvon Thibodeaux LB 80—0
Ar'Darius Washington S 7012
Dru Phillips CB 60—0
Shelby Harris DT 41—0
Greg Newsome II CB 40—0
Deonte Banks CB 30—1
Abdul Carter LB 30—0
Jevon Holland S 3011
Bobby Jamison-Travis DT 20—0
Darius Alexander DT 10—0
Zaire Barnes LB 10—0
Elijah Campbell S 10—0
Trace Ford LB 10—0
Theo Johnson TE 10—0
Malik Nabers WR 10—0
Tyler Nubin S 10—0
Jason Pinnock S 10—0
DJ Reader DT 10—0
Dawuane Smoot LB 10—0

🎟️ Player Props Results DraftKings lines

PlayerPropLineActualResult
J.J. McCarthy NYG Passing yards211.5293 Over
Completions18.523 Over
Pass attempts30.536 Over
Interceptions0.51 Over
Rushing yards14.534 Over
Rush attempts3.56 Over
Longest rush10.512 Over
Jayden Daniels WSH Passing yards200.5249 Over
Completions19.523 Over
Pass attempts31.533 Over
Rushing yards37.528 Under
Rush attempts5.510 Over
Longest rush14.58 Under
Isaiah Likely NYG Receptions4.59 Over
Receiving yards47.5127 Over
Longest reception18.566 Over
Cam Skattebo NYG Rushing yards52.578 Over
Rush attempts15.518 Over
Receptions1.53 Over
Receiving yards7.544 Over
Rush + Rec yards64.5122 Over
Longest rush13.514 Over
Stefon Diggs WSH Receptions4.56 Over
Receiving yards39.583 Over
Longest reception15.532 Over
Malachi Fields NYG Receptions2.53 Over
Receiving yards26.562 Over
Longest reception16.525 Over

The last pregame line, graded against the final box score.

⚔️ Season Series & What's Next

2026 season series WSH 1 – 0 NYG 1 tie
Last 4 meetings · since 2025 WSH 3 – 0 NYG
Previous meetingsOpen the recap
After this game
Washington Commanders 3-5-1 W1 L5 2-2-1 Next game: vs CIN · Mon, Nov 23
New York Giants 5-3-1 L1 L5 2-2-1 Next game: vs JAX · Sun, Nov 22

🔍 Key Suspects Results

2 of 3 graded picks hit. Pushes and voided picks are not counted.

WSH — Away
Rachaad White Rachaad White RB Receiving Yards (1Q) 0.5 UNDER HIT Actual 0
NYG — Home
Isaiah Likely Isaiah Likely TE Longest Reception 18.5 OVER Score 78
Malik Nabers Malik Nabers WR Longest Reception 23.5 OVER Score 77
Isaiah Likely Isaiah Likely TE Receiving Yards (1Q) 6.5 UNDER Score 74
Malik Nabers Malik Nabers WR Receiving Yards (1H) 31.5 UNDER Score 73
J.J. McCarthy J.J. McCarthy QB Passing TDs 1.5 UNDER HIT Actual 1
Dominic Zvada Dominic Zvada PK Fg Made 1.5 OVER MISS Actual 0
Cam Skattebo Cam Skattebo RB Longest Rush 14.5 OVER Score 69

Sharper Picks Start Here

Live odds, Key Suspects, player props, DFS rankings, and real-time game tracking — all in one workspace built for serious bettors and DFS players.

Create Free Account Back to NFL