Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Jacksonville Jaguars face New York Giants in Week 11 at MetLife Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Jacksonville Jaguars enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.7 points scored and 17.3 allowed.
New York Giants enter with a 3-2-1 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 22.7 points scored and 23.3 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Jacksonville Jaguars’s 25.7 points per game against a New York Giants defense allowing 23.3. In the other direction, New York Giants average 22.7 against Jacksonville Jaguars’s 17.3 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Jacksonville Jaguars have injury designations to monitor: Montaric Brown (CB) — Questionable; Antonio Johnson (S) — Questionable; Ross Matiscik (LS) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
New York Giants have injury designations to monitor: Tremaine Edmunds (LB) — Questionable; Jermaine Eluemunor (OT) — Questionable; Darnell Mooney (WR) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward New York Giants are Home field / environment; Game-script tendencies.
The strongest model adjustments toward Jacksonville Jaguars are Starting QB efficiency; Early-down efficiency.
The current model leans toward JAX at 60.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Jacksonville Jaguars 4-2
- 🏈 Record: New York Giants 3-2-1
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
JAXA Starting QB efficiency +1.9 Very Strong
Jameis Winston (2026) 57.0% CMP / 6.1 Y/A / 4.4% TD / 3.2% INT / 76.4 RATE · Trevor Lawrence (2026) 65.2% CMP / 8.0 Y/A / 7.6% TD / 2.2% INT / 106.2 RATE
NYGH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
NYG home field | NYG 35 days / JAX 35 days
JAXA Early-down efficiency +0.77 Moderate
41% / 45% allowed | 47% / 44% allowed
JAXA Run-game matchup +0.75 Strong
NYG 3.8 rush Y/A / 5.0 allowed | JAX 4.1 / 3.2 | PBP 83% stuff avoided | 80% stuff avoided
JAXA OL vs DL matchup +0.56 Moderate
NYG OL sack 7.8% / DEF sack 4.0% | JAX 5.2% / 4.9%
JAXA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.53 Strong
61% / 75% allowed | 67% / 40% allowed
JAXA Schedule strength +0.50 Very Strong
NYG 29% opp wins · JAX 54%
JAXA Record quality +0.33 Moderate
NYG 3-2 · JAX 4-2
JAXA Raw scoring differential +0.32 Moderate
NYG 22.7 PPG · JAX 25.7 PPG | NYG 23.3 PA/G · JAX 17.3 PA/G
NYGH Game-script tendencies +0.32 Moderate
51% neutral pass / 61 plays | 55% / 58
NYGH Pass defense +0.29 Weak
NYG 5.7 net Y/A / 63.4% CMP / 88.7 RATE | JAX 7.4 / 66.0% / 87.7
JAXA Third-down efficiency +0.25 Moderate
NYG OFF 41.7% / DEF 41.7% | JAX 47.9% / 36.2% | PBP 64%/67%/30% | 80%/56%/30%
JAXA Explosive-play differential +0.24 Weak
5% / 6% allowed | 7% / 7% allowed
JAXA Turnover differential +0.17 Moderate
NYG 1.8 GIVE / 1.5 TAKE | JAX 0.7 / 1.5
NYGH Special teams efficiency +0.06 Weak
NYG FG 81.3% / NET PUNT 48.3 | JAX 83.3% / 43.3
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