Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Las Vegas Raiders face Denver Broncos in Week 11 at Empower Field at Mile High. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Las Vegas Raiders enter with a 3-3 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 27.0 points scored and 27.0 allowed. Their current streak is 3 losses.
Denver Broncos enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 19.0 points scored and 20.8 allowed. Their current streak is 2 wins.
The scoring matchup puts Las Vegas Raiders’s 27.0 points per game against a Denver Broncos defense allowing 20.8. In the other direction, Denver Broncos average 19.0 against Las Vegas Raiders’s 27.0 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Las Vegas Raiders have injury designations to monitor: Tonka Hemingway (DT) — Questionable; Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR) — IR-R. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Denver Broncos have injury designations to monitor: Tyler Badie (RB) — Questionable; Talanoa Hufanga (S) — Doubtful; Pat Surtain II (CB) — Doubtful. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Denver Broncos are Home field / environment; Pass defense.
The strongest model adjustments toward Las Vegas Raiders are Starting QB efficiency; Game-script tendencies.
The current model leans toward DEN at 54.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Las Vegas Raiders 3-3
- 🏈 Record: Denver Broncos 4-2
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
DENH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
DEN home field | DEN 38 days / LV 35 days
LVA Starting QB efficiency +0.87 Moderate
Bo Nix (2026) 60.3% CMP / 5.6 Y/A / 3.2% TD / 1.6% INT / 79.4 RATE · Kirk Cousins (2026) 63.4% CMP / 7.4 Y/A / 6.6% TD / 2.3% INT / 98.0 RATE
DENH Pass defense +0.79 Moderate
DEN 5.3 net Y/A / 56.5% CMP / 73.1 RATE | LV 6.8 / 63.7% / 101.8
DENH Recent form +0.75 Strong
DEN W2 · LV L3
LVA Game-script tendencies +0.42 Moderate
57% neutral pass / 55 plays | 58% / 62
DENH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.36 Moderate
61% / 53% allowed | 57% / 74% allowed
DENH Record quality +0.33 Moderate
DEN 4-2 · LV 3-3
LVA Third-down efficiency +0.24 Moderate
DEN OFF 31.6% / DEF 44.4% | LV 42.3% / 41.3% | PBP 59%/25%/21% | 60%/50%/33%
DENH Schedule strength +0.22 Moderate
DEN 58% opp wins · LV 47%
LVA Explosive-play differential +0.20 Weak
3% / 6% allowed | 6% / 7% allowed
LVA Special teams efficiency +0.18 Moderate
DEN FG 75.0% / NET PUNT 45.9 | LV 93.3% / 46.8
DENH Turnover differential +0.06 Weak
DEN 1.0 GIVE / 1.7 TAKE | LV 1.3 / 1.7
LVA Raw scoring differential +0.05 Weak
DEN 19.0 PPG · LV 27.0 PPG | DEN 20.8 PA/G · LV 27.0 PA/G
DENH Early-down efficiency +0.05 Weak
36% / 42% allowed | 41% / 48% allowed
DENH Run-game matchup +0.03 Weak
DEN 3.4 rush Y/A / 4.7 allowed | LV 3.0 / 4.9 | PBP 80% stuff avoided | 70% stuff avoided
DENH OL vs DL matchup +0.02 Weak
DEN OL sack 4.1% / DEF sack 7.7% | LV 3.5% / 7.2%
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