Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
New Orleans Saints face Chicago Bears in Week 11 at Soldier Field. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
New Orleans Saints enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.3 points scored and 29.7 allowed.
Chicago Bears enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.0 points scored and 19.8 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts New Orleans Saints’s 25.3 points per game against a Chicago Bears defense allowing 19.8. In the other direction, Chicago Bears average 25.0 against New Orleans Saints’s 29.7 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
New Orleans Saints have injury designations to monitor: Kaden Elliss (LB) — Questionable; Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB) — Questionable; Quincy Riley (CB) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Chicago Bears have injury designations to monitor: T.J. Edwards (LB) — Questionable; Jonah Jackson (G) — Questionable; Tony Fields II (LB) — IR-R. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Chicago Bears are Home field / environment; Record quality.
The strongest model adjustments toward New Orleans Saints are Red-zone TD efficiency; Game-script tendencies.
The current model leans toward CHI at 57.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: New Orleans Saints 2-4
- 🏈 Record: Chicago Bears 4-2
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
CHIH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
CHI home field | CHI 35 days / NO 35 days
CHIH Record quality +0.67 Strong
CHI 4-2 · NO 2-4
NOA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.51 Strong
50% / 67% allowed | 84% / 62% allowed
CHIH Early-down efficiency +0.44 Weak
43% / 45% allowed | 39% / 51% allowed
CHIH Run-game matchup +0.36 Weak
CHI 4.5 rush Y/A / 4.5 allowed | NO 3.8 / 4.8 | PBP 81% stuff avoided | 83% stuff avoided
CHIH Starting QB efficiency +0.36 Weak
Caleb Williams (2026) 72.5% CMP / 7.8 Y/A / 3.3% TD / 1.1% INT / 101.5 RATE · Tyler Shough (2026) 65.1% CMP / 6.1 Y/A / 5.1% TD / 2.1% INT / 90.1 RATE
CHIH Third-down efficiency +0.32 Moderate
CHI OFF 45.5% / DEF 25.8% | NO 42.5% / 44.6% | PBP 53%/60%/25% | 77%/42%/29%
CHIH Raw scoring differential +0.28 Moderate
CHI 25.0 PPG · NO 25.3 PPG | CHI 19.8 PA/G · NO 29.7 PA/G
NOA Game-script tendencies +0.19 Weak
52% neutral pass / 69 plays | 56% / 64
CHIH Pass defense +0.15 Weak
CHI 7.1 net Y/A / 62.6% CMP / 99.9 RATE | NO 6.7 / 66.5% / 97.8
NOA Schedule strength +0.14 Weak
CHI 54% opp wins · NO 61%
CHIH Special teams efficiency +0.10 Weak
CHI FG 72.7% / NET PUNT 45.6 | NO 70.0% / 41.2
CHIH OL vs DL matchup +0.07 Weak
CHI OL sack 6.7% / DEF sack 9.4% | NO 5.2% / 7.0%
NOA Explosive-play differential +0.04 Weak
6% / 8% allowed | 4% / 7% allowed
CHIH Turnover differential +0.03 Weak
CHI 1.8 GIVE / 1.5 TAKE | NO 2.0 / 1.5
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