Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Miami Dolphins face Buffalo Bills in Week 11 at Highmark Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Miami Dolphins enter with a 0-5 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 14.0 points scored and 26.4 allowed. Their current streak is 5 losses.
Buffalo Bills enter with a 5-1 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 32.8 points scored and 28.5 allowed. Their current streak is 2 wins.
The scoring matchup puts Miami Dolphins’s 14.0 points per game against a Buffalo Bills defense allowing 28.5. In the other direction, Buffalo Bills average 32.8 against Miami Dolphins’s 26.4 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Miami Dolphins have injury designations to monitor: JuJu Brents (CB) — Questionable; Caleb Douglas (WR) — Questionable; Jonah Savaiinaea (G) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Buffalo Bills have injury designations to monitor: DJ Moore (WR) — Questionable; Ed Oliver (DT) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Buffalo Bills are Starting QB efficiency; Record quality.
The strongest model adjustments toward Miami Dolphins are Schedule strength; Key injury availability.
The current model leans toward BUF at 63.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Miami Dolphins 0-5
- 🏈 Record: Buffalo Bills 5-1
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
BUFH Starting QB efficiency +1.4 Strong
Josh Allen (2026) 66.7% CMP / 8.8 Y/A / 5.3% TD / 2.3% INT / 102.1 RATE · Malik Willis (2026) 56.2% CMP / 6.5 Y/A / 1.5% TD / 3.1% INT / 68.4 RATE
BUFH Record quality +1.0 Very Strong
BUF 5-1 · MIA 0-5
BUFH Recent form +1.0 Very Strong
BUF W2 · MIA L5
BUFH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
BUF home field | BUF 35 days / MIA 42 days
BUFH Early-down efficiency +0.69 Moderate
48% / 48% allowed | 33% / 46% allowed
MIAA Schedule strength +0.50 Very Strong
BUF 41% opp wins · MIA 82%
MIAA Key injury availability +0.50 Weak
BUF 1 unavailable starters · MIA 0
BUFH Run-game matchup +0.44 Moderate
86% stuff avoided | 80% stuff avoided
BUFH OL vs DL matchup +0.32 Weak
BUF OL sack 6.6% / DEF sack 4.3% | MIA 9.7% / 2.7%
BUFH Pass defense +0.27 Weak
BUF 6.8 net Y/A / 64.9% CMP / 102.5 RATE | MIA 7.4 / 76.6% / 115.0
BUFH Raw scoring differential +0.26 Moderate
BUF 32.8 PPG · MIA 14.0 PPG | BUF 28.5 PA/G · MIA 26.4 PA/G
BUFH Special teams efficiency +0.20 Moderate
BUF FG 100.0% / NET PUNT 46.0 | MIA 77.8% / 39.6
BUFH Explosive-play differential +0.17 Weak
9% / 7% allowed | 6% / 5% allowed
BUFH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.16 Weak
69% / 69% allowed | 46% / 64% allowed
BUFH Third-down efficiency +0.14 Weak
BUF OFF 47.6% / DEF 45.0% | MIA 41.3% / 51.7% | PBP 67%/74%/27% | 70%/70%/23%
MIAA Game-script tendencies +0.05 Weak
53% neutral pass / 56 plays | 45% / 51
BUFH Turnover differential +0.04 Weak
BUF 1.5 GIVE / 1.0 TAKE | MIA 1.6 / 0.8
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