Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Arizona Cardinals face Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11 at Arrowhead Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Arizona Cardinals enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 21.0 points scored and 29.7 allowed.
Kansas City Chiefs enter with a 5-0 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 28.0 points scored and 16.6 allowed. Their current streak is 5 wins.
The scoring matchup puts Arizona Cardinals’s 21.0 points per game against a Kansas City Chiefs defense allowing 16.6. In the other direction, Kansas City Chiefs average 28.0 against Arizona Cardinals’s 29.7 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Arizona Cardinals have injury designations to monitor: Andrew Wingard (S) — Questionable; Wydett Williams Jr. (S) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Kansas City Chiefs have injury designations to monitor: Rashee Rice (WR) — Questionable; Josh Simmons (OT) — Questionable; Cooper McDonald (LB) — IR-R. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Kansas City Chiefs are Starting QB efficiency; Explosive-play differential.
The strongest model adjustments toward Arizona Cardinals are Schedule strength; Game-script tendencies.
The current model leans toward KC at 64.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Arizona Cardinals 2-4
- 🏈 Record: Kansas City Chiefs 5-0
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
KCH Starting QB efficiency +1.2 Moderate
Patrick Mahomes (2026) 66.5% CMP / 8.3 Y/A / 5.7% TD / 1.9% INT / 103.1 RATE · Jacoby Brissett (2026) 66.7% CMP / 5.7 Y/A / 3.8% TD / 2.6% INT / 83.4 RATE
KCH Explosive-play differential +1.0 Very Strong
8% / 5% allowed | 3% / 6% allowed
KCH Record quality +1.0 Very Strong
KC 5-0 · ARI 2-4
KCH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
KC home field | KC 35 days / ARI 35 days
KCH Run-game matchup +0.72 Strong
KC 5.5 rush Y/A / 3.5 allowed | ARI 3.7 / 4.4 | PBP 81% stuff avoided | 77% stuff avoided
KCH Recent form +0.60 Strong
KC W5 · ARI W1
KCH Pass defense +0.55 Moderate
KC 5.7 net Y/A / 60.9% CMP / 74.1 RATE | ARI 7.4 / 65.7% / 116.5
KCH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.54 Strong
57% / 42% allowed | 48% / 76% allowed
KCH Raw scoring differential +0.49 Strong
KC 28.0 PPG · ARI 21.0 PPG | KC 16.6 PA/G · ARI 29.7 PA/G
KCH Early-down efficiency +0.48 Moderate
49% / 38% allowed | 47% / 45% allowed
ARIA Schedule strength +0.41 Very Strong
KC 30% opp wins · ARI 50%
ARIA Game-script tendencies +0.38 Moderate
57% neutral pass / 60 plays | 56% / 66
ARIA OL vs DL matchup +0.28 Weak
KC OL sack 3.7% / DEF sack 4.2% | ARI 4.9% / 7.5%
KCH Turnover differential +0.11 Weak
KC 0.8 GIVE / 1.8 TAKE | ARI 1.0 / 1.3
KCH Third-down efficiency +0.10 Weak
KC OFF 41.7% / DEF 35.7% | ARI 39.3% / 41.8% | PBP 61%/33%/31% | 69%/42%/23%
KCH Special teams efficiency +0.04 Weak
KC FG 76.9% / NET PUNT 49.5 | ARI 87.5% / 40.5
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