Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Tampa Bay Buccaneers face Detroit Lions in Week 11 at Ford Field. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter with a 1-5 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 19.8 points scored and 23.0 allowed.
Detroit Lions enter with a 3-2 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 32.8 points scored and 29.6 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Tampa Bay Buccaneers’s 19.8 points per game against a Detroit Lions defense allowing 29.6. In the other direction, Detroit Lions average 32.8 against Tampa Bay Buccaneers’s 23.0 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers have injury designations to monitor: Baker Mayfield (QB) — Questionable; Benjamin Morrison (CB) — Questionable; Antoine Winfield Jr. (S) — Doubtful. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Detroit Lions have injury designations to monitor: Rock Ya-Sin (CB) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Detroit Lions are Home field / environment; Record quality.
The strongest model adjustments toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers are Third-down efficiency; Run-game matchup.
The current model leans toward DET at 58.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-5
- 🏈 Record: Detroit Lions 3-2
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
DETH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
DET home field | DET 42 days / TB 35 days
DETH Record quality +0.87 Very Strong
DET 3-2 · TB 1-5
DETH Starting QB efficiency +0.84 Moderate
Jared Goff (2026) 67.0% CMP / 7.8 Y/A / 6.3% TD / 0.0% INT / 111.3 RATE · Baker Mayfield (2026) 63.5% CMP / 6.4 Y/A / 2.1% TD / 2.1% INT / 80.0 RATE
DETH OL vs DL matchup +0.75 Moderate
DET OL sack 5.4% / DEF sack 8.6% | TB 10.2% / 4.9%
DETH Early-down efficiency +0.44 Weak
51% / 48% allowed | 39% / 41% allowed
TBA Third-down efficiency +0.38 Moderate
DET OFF 37.3% / DEF 50.7% | TB 36.8% / 33.8% | PBP 44%/63%/24% | 70%/56%/22%
TBA Run-game matchup +0.37 Weak
DET 4.4 rush Y/A / 4.2 allowed | TB 4.8 / 3.4 | PBP 81% stuff avoided | 84% stuff avoided
TBA Schedule strength +0.34 Strong
DET 49% opp wins · TB 66%
DETH Game-script tendencies +0.32 Moderate
58% neutral pass / 63 plays | 52% / 58
DETH Recent form +0.30 Moderate
DET W1 · TB L1
TBA Explosive-play differential +0.27 Weak
6% / 8% allowed | 5% / 5% allowed
TBA Pass defense +0.11 Weak
DET 6.4 net Y/A / 68.1% CMP / 106.3 RATE | TB 5.9 / 66.5% / 87.5
DETH Raw scoring differential +0.11 Weak
DET 32.8 PPG · TB 19.8 PPG | DET 29.6 PA/G · TB 23.0 PA/G
DETH Turnover differential +0.11 Weak
DET 0.2 GIVE / 1.0 TAKE | TB 1.8 / 1.3
DETH Special teams efficiency +0.04 Weak
DET FG 100.0% / NET PUNT 44.4 | TB 100.0% / 38.7
DETH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.04 Weak
77% / 76% allowed | 47% / 53% allowed
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