NHL Final Intelligence
New York Islanders 4, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT) — Recap
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Game Recap
The New York Islanders secured a 4-3 overtime victory against the Minnesota Wild, improving their record to 6-4-2. The Wild moved to 9-3-2 after the loss. SportsFBI's pregame model, which had leaned toward Minnesota with a 66% probability, missed its projection in the closely contested matchup. The game featured a continuous exchange of goals, with neither team able to establish a lasting lead through regulation.
Minnesota opened the scoring early in the first period when Joel Eriksson Ek found the net at 0:27, assisted by Kirill Kaprizov and Quinn Hughes. The Islanders responded late in the period, with Matthew Schaefer tying the game 1-1 at 16:36, off assists from Emil Heineman and Victor Eklund. The back-and-forth action continued into the second period. Bo Horvat put New York ahead 2-1 at 1:41, with Simon Holmstrom and Matthew Schaefer earning assists. However, Quinn Hughes, who finished with a goal and an assist in the game, brought Minnesota level again at 17:21 of the second, assisted by Ryan Hartman and Jonas Brodin.
The third period mirrored the previous two in its even scoring. Adam Pelech gave the Islanders their third lead of the night at 7:14, making it 3-2. Yet, Matt Boldy answered for the Wild at 16:07, bringing the score to 3-3 and forcing overtime. The Islanders eventually claimed the victory in the extra frame. Ilya Sorokin made 22 saves on 25 shots for the Islanders, while Jesper Wallstedt stopped 21 of 24 shots for the Wild. Beyond Hughes, Matthew Schaefer also registered a goal and an assist for New York, with Adam Pelech and Bo Horvat adding individual goals.
How the Prediction Fared
Before puck drop, DraftKings favored the Minnesota Wild (-192, 66% implied) over the New York Islanders. The underdog won.
SportsFBI's model, locked before puck drop, favored the Minnesota Wild (66% confidence). It gave a 31% chance of a 3+ goal margin; the game was decided by 1 goal.
💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line
Standouts
Every skater's and goalie's line is in the box score below.
📊 Game Flow
- P1 0:27 Joel Eriksson Ek (Kirill Kaprizov, Quinn Hughes) MIN · wrist shot · NYI 0, MIN 1
- P1 16:36 Matthew Schaefer (Emil Heineman, Victor Eklund) NYI · wrist shot · NYI 1, MIN 1
- P2 1:41 Bo Horvat (Simon Holmstrom, Matthew Schaefer) NYI · Power play · tip-in shot · NYI 2, MIN 1
- P2 17:21 Quinn Hughes (Ryan Hartman, Jonas Brodin) MIN · backhand shot · NYI 2, MIN 2
- P3 7:14 Adam Pelech NYI · wrist shot · NYI 3, MIN 2
- P3 16:07 Matt Boldy MIN · wrist shot · NYI 3, MIN 3
- OT 0:33 Matthew Schaefer (Jean-Gabriel Pageau) NYI · wrist shot · NYI 4, MIN 3
📋 Team Stats
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 10 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 26 |
| MIN | 13 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 26 |
🎯 Shot Map
- 4Goals9% of attempts
- 22Saved51% of attempts
- 17Missed the net40% of attempts
- 3Goals7% of attempts
- 23Saved56% of attempts
- 15Missed the net37% of attempts
● goal (large) · ● saved · ✕ missed the net; blocked shots are not located. Each team attacks to the right.
🏒 Box Score
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Schaefer | D | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 30:01 |
| Adam Pelech | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 23:49 |
| Bo Horvat | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 20:57 |
| Simon Holmstrom | R | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:18 |
| Emil Heineman | L | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17:09 |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15:56 |
| Victor Eklund | R | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12:52 |
| Logan Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 26:16 |
| Tony DeAngelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21:26 |
| Kyle Palmieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 17:03 |
| Scott Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15:51 |
| Ondrej Palat | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15:44 |
| Brayden Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 14:18 |
| Anthony Duclair | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:07 |
| Casey Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11:02 |
| Kyle MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 09:02 |
| Mitchell Chaffee | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 08:57 |
| Ryan Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 00:51 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin | W | 23 | 26 | 88.5 | 3 | 60:33 |
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Hughes | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 33:41 |
| Matt Boldy | L | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21:10 |
| Joel Eriksson Ek | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 17:12 |
| Jonas Brodin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 23:36 |
| Kirill Kaprizov | L | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 21:50 |
| Ryan Hartman | R | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13:09 |
| Danila Yurov | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 18:02 |
| Maxim Shabanov | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17:49 |
| Olli Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16:58 |
| Blake Coleman | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16:16 |
| Zach Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16:05 |
| Yakov Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 15:04 |
| Bobby Brink | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:48 |
| Matt Kiersted | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13:45 |
| Michael McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12:12 |
| David Spacek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10:33 |
| Nico Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 10:04 |
| Tyler Pitlick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 06:41 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt | O | 22 | 26 | 84.6 | 4 | 60:33 |
🎟️ Player Props Results Consensus lines
| Player | Prop | Line | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Schaefer NYI | Points | 0.5 | 3 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 2 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 6 | Over | |
| Quinn Hughes MIN | Points | 0.5 | 2 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 4 | Over | |
| Bo Horvat NYI | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 3 | Over | |
| Simon Holmstrom NYI | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 2 | Over | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek MIN | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Shots on goal | 2.5 | 3 | Over | |
| Emil Heineman NYI | Points | 0.5 | 1 | Over |
| Assists | 0.5 | 1 | Over | |
| Goals | 0.5 | 0 | Under | |
| Shots on goal | 1.5 | 2 | Over |
The last pregame line, graded against the final box score.
⚔️ Season Series & What's Next
More NHL Results — Thursday, October 29, 2026
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