Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers — Recap

October 13, 2026 · Madison Square Garden · View Preview

📰Game Recap

New York quickly established an early lead and maintained it throughout the game, with Alexis Lafrenière scoring twice in the opening period. Lafrenière put the Rangers on the board at 1:02, assisted by Tye Kartye and Adam Fox. He scored again at 12:47, with assists from Kartye and J.T. Miller, extending New York’s lead to two goals. Tampa Bay responded before the end of the first period when Zemgus Girgensons scored at 17:26, assisted by Pontus Holmberg and Victor Hedman, narrowing the deficit to 2-1.

The Rangers regained their two-goal advantage late in the second period. Will Cuylle found the net at 18:26, assisted by Sean Durzi and Marcus Pettersson, making it 3-1. Despite Tampa Bay outshooting New York 26-23 in the game, Dylan Garand made 13 saves on 14 shots for the Rangers, while Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 10 of 12 for the Lightning.

Mika Zibanejad sealed the victory for New York with an unassisted goal at 17:16 of the third period. Lafrenière finished with two goals, and Tye Kartye contributed two assists for the Rangers. Zemgus Girgensons scored Tampa Bay's lone goal, with Victor Hedman adding an assist. The New York Rangers improved their record to 5-2-0, while the Tampa Bay Lightning moved to 4-1-0. SportsFBI's model had leaned towards Tampa Bay winning at 62% probability, a prediction that did not materialize.

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How the Prediction Fared

⚡ Upset

Before puck drop, DraftKings favored the Tampa Bay Lightning (-162, 62% implied) over the New York Rangers. The underdog won.

⚡ Model Missed

SportsFBI's model, locked before puck drop, favored the Tampa Bay Lightning (62% confidence). It gave a 33% chance of a 3+ goal margin; the game was decided by 3 goals.