โ† MLB

MLB Matchup Intelligence

ATL vs
SEA

Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners

May 5, 2026 ยท 9:40 PM ET ยท T-Mobile Park
ATL 94-68  ยท  SEA 76-86

๐Ÿ Final: ATL 3, SEA 2 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† Atlanta Braves
Confidence 72%
Projected Score ATL 4 ยท SEA 2
Blowout Probability 14%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

SEA Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
ATL Record edge โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SEA Key injuries ATL (Martin Perez, Tyler Mahle) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SEA SP quality edge (FIP 3.48 vs 3.96, PF 0.94) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
ATL SEA SP elevated fatigue โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SEA Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
ATL Defensive edge (dWAR 5.1) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SEA Catcher arm edge (CS% 16pp) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
ATL Recent run diff (+1.7 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
SEA SP home venue edge (ERA 3.56 H vs 5.55 A) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
ATL Bullpen edge (quality/availability) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

ATL โ€” Away RHP
Bryce Elder
Bryce Elder
ERA4.11
WHIP1.27
FIP4.56
K/97.3
K/BB4.3
Road ERA: 5.06
vs
SEA โ€” Home RHP
George Kirby
George Kirby
ERA4.33
WHIP1.40
FIP3.85
K/97.6
K/BB5.2
Home ERA: 3.56

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

ATL โ€” Away
  1. 1 Drake Baldwin C
  2. 2 Ozzie Albies 2B
  3. 3 Matt Olson 1B
  4. 4 Michael Harris II LF
  5. 5 Mauricio Dubon CF
  6. 6 Austin Riley 3B
  7. 7 Dominic Smith DH
  8. 8 Mike Yastrzemski RF
  9. 9 Jorge Mateo SS
SEA โ€” Home
  1. 1 J.P. Crawford SS
  2. 2 Cal Raleigh DH
  3. 3 Julio Rodriguez CF
  4. 4 Josh Naylor 1B
  5. 5 Randy Arozarena LF
  6. 6 Luke Raley RF
  7. 7 Cole Young 2B
  8. 8 Mitch Garver C
  9. 9 Leo Rivas 3B

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

ATL Away SEA Home
Team OPS 0.717 0.674
Bullpen FIP 4.07 4.56
Run Diff / 10G +1.8 +0.1
Days Rest 0 0
Streak -1 2

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
ATL -1.5 (+1060)
SEA +1.5 (-4600)
Total (O/U)
Over 5.5 (+381)
Under 5.5 (-596)
Moneyline
ATL -1480
SEA +680

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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