โ† MLB

MLB Matchup Intelligence

BOS vs
NYM

Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets

July 10, 2026 ยท 7:50 PM ET ยท Citi Field
BOS 87-75  ยท  NYM 74-88

๐Ÿ Final: BOS 6, NYM 2 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† New York Mets
Confidence 55%
Projected Score NYM 4 ยท BOS 2
Blowout Probability 3%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

NYM Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS Key injuries NYM (Jared Young, Christian Scott) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYM Key injuries BOS (Mickey Gasper, Roman Anthony) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYM SP quality edge (FIP 2.94 vs 3.19) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYM Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS Defensive edge (dWAR 6.0) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
BOS Recent run diff (+2.5 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

BOS โ€” Away RHP
Sonny Gray
Sonny Gray
ERA2.72
WHIP1.15
FIP3.38
K/97.9
K/BB5.5
Road ERA: 2.35
vs
NYM โ€” Home RHP
Nolan McLean
Nolan McLean
ERA3.16
WHIP1.17
FIP3.34
K/99.7
K/BB6.2
Home ERA: 3.48

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

BOS โ€” Away
  1. 1 Anthony Seigler 2B
  2. 2 Ceddanne Rafaela CF
  3. 3 Wilyer Abreu RF
  4. 4 Romy Gonzalez 1B
  5. 5 Masataka Yoshida DH
  6. 6 Caleb Durbin 3B
  7. 7 Jarren Duran LF
  8. 8 Connor Wong C
  9. 9 Tsung-Che Cheng SS
NYM โ€” Home
  1. 1 A.J. Ewing CF
  2. 2 Juan Soto LF
  3. 3 Francisco Lindor SS
  4. 4 Carson Benge RF
  5. 5 Jorge Polanco DH
  6. 6 Jared Young 1B
  7. 7 Francisco Alvarez C
  8. 8 Brett Baty 3B
  9. 9 Zack Short 2B

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

BOS Away NYM Home
Team OPS 0.696 0.682
Bullpen FIP 3.55 4.39
Run Diff / 10G +1.4 -1.1
Days Rest 0 0
Streak -3 -1

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
BOS -2.5 (-218)
NYM +2.5 (+164)
Total (O/U)
Over 5.5 (-146)
Under 5.5 (+112)
Moneyline
BOS -2300
NYM +840

๐Ÿ” Key Suspects Top 4 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Click a suspect for the full evidence breakdown. Full rankings, verdicts, sharp money signals, and live lineup tracking are in the workspace.

BOS โ€” Away
Sonny Gray Sonny Gray SP
Outs
17.5
61 ยท OVER
NYM โ€” Home
Carson Benge Carson Benge RF
Singles
0.5
64 ยท OVER
Nolan McLean Nolan McLean SP
Outs
17.5
58 ยท OVER
Francisco Alvarez Francisco Alvarez C
Hits
0.5
55 ยท OVER
Juan Soto Juan Soto LF
Singles
0.5
53 ยท OVER

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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