โ† MLB

MLB Matchup Intelligence

MIA vs
TB

Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays

May 17, 2026 ยท 12:15 PM ET ยท Tropicana Field
MIA 80-82  ยท  TB 98-64

๐Ÿ Final: MIA 3, TB 6 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† Tampa Bay Rays
Confidence 72%
Projected Score TB 6 ยท MIA 4
Blowout Probability 14%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

TB Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Record edge โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
MIA Key injuries TB (Chandler Simpson, Griffin Jax) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Key injuries MIA (Jakob Marsee) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB SP quality edge (FIP 3.49 vs 3.95, PF 0.95) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
MIA TB SP fatigued โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB MIA SP fatigued โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
MIA Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Defensive edge (dWAR 7.5) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB Recent run diff (+1.7 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
TB MIA SP home dependent โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
MIA Bullpen edge (quality/availability) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

MIA โ€” Away RHP
Eury Perez
Eury Perez
ERA3.91
WHIP1.21
FIP3.88
K/99.6
K/BB5.8
Road ERA: 4.95
vs
TB โ€” Home RHP
Drew Rasmussen
Drew Rasmussen
ERA2.67
WHIP0.91
FIP2.69
K/99.1
K/BB7.4
Home ERA: 2.89

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

MIA โ€” Away
  1. 1 Xavier Edwards 2B
  2. 2 Liam Hicks C
  3. 3 Otto Lopez SS
  4. 4 Kyle Stowers LF
  5. 5 Connor Norby DH
  6. 6 Jakob Marsee CF
  7. 7 Leo Jimenez 3B
  8. 8 Owen Caissie RF
  9. 9 Christopher Morel 1B
TB โ€” Home
  1. 1 Chandler Simpson LF
  2. 2 Junior Caminero 3B
  3. 3 Jonathan Aranda 1B
  4. 4 Yandy Diaz DH
  5. 5 Richie Palacios 2B
  6. 6 Jonny DeLuca RF
  7. 7 Cedric Mullins CF
  8. 8 Nick Fortes C
  9. 9 Taylor Walls SS

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

MIA Away TB Home
Team OPS 0.697 0.724
Bullpen FIP 3.97 4.55
Run Diff / 10G -0.6 +1.1
Days Rest 0 0
Streak 1 -1

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
MIA +2.5 (+243)
TB -2.5 (-341)
Total (O/U)
Over 9.5 (+243)
Under 9.5 (-340)
Moneyline
MIA +1420
TB -10000

๐Ÿ” Key Suspects Top 1 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Click a suspect for the full evidence breakdown. Full rankings, verdicts, sharp money signals, and live lineup tracking are in the workspace.

MIA โ€” Away

No data yet.

TB โ€” Home
Drew Rasmussen Drew Rasmussen SP
Outs
17.5
53 ยท OVER

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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